Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[ducati998]

rogue,
Who do you classify as the "dumb" money?
d998

 

[roguetrader]

I use the industry definition, we are dumb money, smart money is capable of moving markets, dumb money follows them.

 

[hariab]

hey guys,

bit of a newbie here..... quick history........ been trading cfd's for 5years.......... started us indices 2 years ago....... and cant complain about the money ive made.

My personal feeling for dow is we be hitting 10500 today, prob play between 500-400 til Friday, when it could be D-day. I would expect the 10375 to be quite astrong support level for the time being, until there is some news to allows us bears to break through it. again i agree with everyone about looking towards 10000, and be watching the market closely when we do hit 10000. Which way will it go???

Anyway thats my feeling, anyone feelin the same??

 

[tpk007]

NYSE Program Trades at 71%

One of the more dollar bearish sites in the US has issued a Heads Up on the stockmarket.

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

The report warns that the public is abandoning the market. It points to the data from the NYSE that shows a big leap in program trades as a percentage of all trades. See the definitions below. Check the tables on the NYSE page for data from 1999. The percentage of program trades has not been over 60% in the period from 1999 to 2005.

http://www.nyse.com/Frameset.html?displayPage=/marketinfo/ProgramTrading.html

Definition of Program Trades

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/programtrading.asp

Computerized trading used primarily by institutional investors typically for large-volume trades. Orders from the trader's computer are entered directly into the market's computer system and executed automatically.

Program trades are usually executed if index prices sink or rise to a certain level. This tends to create very volatile situations. As a result, there are restrictions on times when program trading can be used.



This will be worth monitoring to see if this latest release is just an aberration.

 

[roguetrader]

Nice day, guess that answers my question the other day about short squeeze it would seem there are still some buyers out there after all as I would imagine any short covering took place in the morning. Market looks set to close at the highs with strong breadth and adv / dec all the way to the close which would in my opinion represent active buying. Volume slightly lighter than yesterday, so not a strong bull argument. Where to from here is the question.

 

[twiggytwo]

Nice day, guess that answers my question the other day about short squeeze it would seem there are still some buyers out there after all as I would imagine any short covering took place in the morning. Market looks set to close at the highs with strong breadth and adv / dec all the way to the close which would in my opinion represent active buying. Volume slightly lighter than yesterday, so not a strong bull argument. Where to from here is the question.

Hi ,we may be able to see Where To ?
If the Dow gives us a close above 10,565 ( Mon 21st March )
this is just my view but I see a range on the Dow from my Indicator that shows
10,540 to 10,430 it WAS broken down to 10,405 but as we all see today it closed at 10,540
I see this as the top of a range that the DOW is in and we need to see a break from this sideways market for the Dow to start trending again ( up or down ) as I say this is just my view
and not advice to anyone
Regards

 

[roguetrader]

Thanks mate will have alook at that, having a bit of a nighrmare with my charts intraday as I have them set to run market hours and the fact that US didn't move their clocks with us has skewed all my intraday stuff

 

[Racer]

If I wasn't already very short on the Dow and Nas I certainly would have added after today's jobs figures!
Oh, interest rates not going up so fast, let's buy.. yeah sure...
Stuck between a rock and somewhere else.
They can all the ups and downs they like trying to shake me out, am not shifting for quite a while..
looking forward to the summer

 

[roguetrader]

Very nice action in the markets today, didn't really understand the big gap up this morning, heard all the reasons but it still made no sense to me . But who cares, gave up trying to understand that side of the market a long time ago. SPX may be coming into trendline at 1172, but not really sure as all my charts have gotskewed with the clock change not being the same both sides of the pond. SOX is bouncing off the 200 day sma and trying to hold the show up along with COMPQ doing the same back and forwards across its 200, could make for a choppy afternoon if they don'tplay nice. INDU and SPX very weak.
Early finish for me don't wanna give any of the mornings gains back this afternoon. Hopefully get my charts sorted this weekend.

 

[jonnyy40]

Have you read 'hot commodities' by Jim Rogers?Everything's in place for a bull market in commodities (obviously we're in one now because of China mostly but India to to a leeser degree).Historically when commodities boom,stock markets stagnate.If you're a long term investor,you can diversify to include commodities or buy shares in those companies that will benefit from a commodities boom.

 

[roguetrader]

Well it was a week that showed a bit of promise for the bulls only to fall flat on it's face :| Entering the week the Nasdaq Comp tussled with its 200 day sma whilst the INDU and SPX just looked plain weak. The SPX set down on its 2005 lows and overshot by a whisker (0.06 of a point) on Tuesday, The bulls came out fighting on Wednesday morning and made their stand with a 16 point rally on the SPX, the INDU which had come within 28 points of its year low put in a 135 point rally, even the Naz managed to put in a respectable 32 point rally. The one critical component missing..............volume. Volume didn't actually increase over the day before, By close of play Friday however the bears had shown they weren't ready for hibernation yet, and the INDU and Nasdaq Comp finished the week down while the SPX managed an unimpressive 1.5 gain,

Also this week marked the end of the first quarter of 2005, with the INDU down 3.5%, SPX down 3.2%, and Nas Comp down a tidy 8.8% ytd.

For the coming week there is very little in the way of economic data to act as a catalyst. Looking at my charts I show SPX sitting more or less mid way between significant resistance. Above Wed high followed by a combination of a swing low from late Feb at 1184 coupled with the underside of the primary trendline from Mar '03 at around 1185. Below is the yearly low which provided the bounce on Wed at 1163 and a secondary trendline from Aug '04 at around 1156, being joined by the rising 200 day sma currently around 1151

INDU or the Dow looks slightly weaker, possible resistance above at Wed high followed by a swing low from Feb at 10608. Below potential support comes thick and fast with the 200 day sma currently at 10380, the '05 low at 10368, and a primary trendline form Oct '02 at about 10334.

Nasdaq Comp, is a bit harder to call, since being the weak element it has already blown through all the levels the broad market is coming into. Basically as I see it there is last weeks low at 1968, which also sits close to the 50% retrace from the Aug '04 low to th Jan high. Then the bottom of a range from Oct '04 at 1900

Ok that's my take fwiw. Hopefully one of the longer term traders will either confirm my view or throw up a better take on it.

 

[Racer]

Friday market opened up next stop possibles on

Dow 10200

Nasdaq 1950

S&P 1150

 

[peterpr]

Friday was my most profitable day y-t-d. Shorted the opening gap on the YM at 10,580 no less! - and with only a 10 point stop.(I was as uncertain as the next man in other words). Expected a rough ride down to near Thursday's close at about 10,520 but, in the event added to it and rode it down to 10,400. Don't you just love it when things work out like that

Most volatile day of the year so far too. Classic bull trap first thing. Everyone and his dog expecting a bounce and piling in when they thought it had started, then wham !!! - a 180 + point decline - haven't seen a day like that for a while !

Monday should be interesting. Weekly and daily pivots at identical levels. Bulls licking their wounds and nervous about committing again. Should ensure a bit of upside I'd say - possibly after a similar bear trap?

Boy, I do love volatile markets.

 

[sbullimore]

Hi all,
As a Newbie, I have been reading this board with some interest. My main observation is that the general comments seem quite bearish at this time, whilst I feel the DOW is set for a bounce.

My reasons for this are:
- the market has been in decline since 7/3, with no retrace
- support from 8/11/04 at 10361 seems to be holding
- there are strong Fib support levels around the 10360 area
- we are now at 162% extension levels of the 23/2 (10608) to 7/3 (10984) move
- Slow Stochastics gave a bullish cross on 29/3
- Price crossed the 3x3 Moving Average on 30/3

(For those that doubt Fib levels, the high of 10984 was slightly higher that the 61.8% move from 25/1(10369) to 16/2 (10853) - the Stochs gave a bearish cross and the price closed below the 3x3 MA, all giving a strong sell signal at the time)

In view of the above, I am expecting to see some upside movement, perhaps to the 10800 level. But I am new to this, and wouldn't be surprised to find I am missing something staring me in the face. What are you Bears seeing that I am not?

 

[Racer]

Look at the charts of AIG and GM for a start!

 

[peterpr]

Look at the charts of AIG and GM for a start!

And Fannie Mae + the US Financial services index + a host of other things calling the US 'recovery' and continuation of the bull run from 2003 into serious question.

Seriously though Sbull.. - you may be right. A retrace is signalled by most indicators and impulsive moves the size we've had usually retrace some at least, especially with Joe public still oblivious to looming problems and the Wall Street cheerleaders saying things like 'slowing jobs growth is good for stocks because it reduces the risk of aggressive interest rate hikes' (what bloody planet do these guys inhabit I wonder?) - question is from where?

Like I said earlier, it wouldn't surpise me to see a bear trap mirror image of the bull one we had on Friday. So. while a quick long may look tempting, I see the odds as favouring a better entry.

My call for the index remains at a 15% + decline for the year though

 

[aspex]

I think that most of these analysts believe they will only get the 'mug punter's money' by being positive about the future.
I do wonder how many average investors know anything about shorting or options which will enable them to get the benefits of a falling market.
Certainly the pros do and I firmly believe they are talking the talk while selling down at any opportunity.
My interest? Short the Nasdaq100 for the foreseeable future.

 

[peterpr]

I think that most of these analysts believe they will only get the 'mug punter's money' by being positive about the future.
I do wonder how many average investors know anything about shorting or options which will enable them to get the benefits of a falling market.
Certainly the pros do and I firmly believe they are talking the talk while selling down at any opportunity.
My interest? Short the Nasdaq100 for the foreseeable future.

Hi Aspex

5 posts in 3 years:-0 - Now there's a man who likes to keep his own counsel.

I spent many years closely involved with the 'financial advice' industry. In spite of all the self-righteous regulatory efforts of UK governments (whilst raiding the nations pension funds to the tune of £5 billion per year I might add) 'caveat emptor' still applies in spades - and especially so where equity investment is concerned. As you say, in large part the industry makes money when people are buying - NOT when they are selling. That is why we are treated to a constant stream of 'cheerleading' and why almost any news is spun to provide a bullish interpretation. It's amusing to follow their antics - very like politicians really - take credit for (and talk up) all the good things, spin the not so good and blame everyone else for the bad

I think a thread for examples of cheerleader doublespeak might prove an amusing diversion.

 

[aspex]

Yes, peterpr
I have not been around here often but I do post regularly on both UK and NZ investment threads.
Sometimes, I just cannot avoid the opportunity to take the pi**.
I have arrived at one conclusion and that involves trading indices rather than individual shares and realising that a negative market usually gathers its own momentum for some time.
Patience is required.

 

[roguetrader]

I think that most of these analysts believe they will only get the 'mug punter's money' by being positive about the future.
I do wonder how many average investors know anything about shorting or options which will enable them to get the benefits of a falling market.
Certainly the pros do and I firmly believe they are talking the talk while selling down at any opportunity.
My interest? Short the Nasdaq100 for the foreseeable future.

That stands to reason aspex, when the stock market performs badly investors shy away from stocks and put their money somewhere else, therefore in order to attract money into the market it is necessary to paint a picture that at the very worst things aren't all that bad. I think I have yet to hear an analyst on bloomberg or cnbc finish his commentry by saying something like, "I expect the market to decline by X% this year." I do wonder how much things have been affected by the rapid growth in Hedge fund activity though.