roguetrader
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User both those charts showthe same trendline, just the right hand one is a closer view. The low was established on 25/10/04 at 9708.40
frugi
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Indices-u-like for your pleasure and my satisfaction 
More useless prognostication from young Frugi -
Down to 710-720 and break away hard down through TL / 50 EMA to 6xx (quite unlikely)
Down to 710-720 and then up to test 800 rising TL now as resistance, or the opposite (quite likely)
Up to 800 and break back into channel (unlikely)
None of the above (almost certain)
I expect a lot of whipping around these TLs/50EMAs then a big move.
More useless prognostication from young Frugi -
Down to 710-720 and break away hard down through TL / 50 EMA to 6xx (quite unlikely)
Down to 710-720 and then up to test 800 rising TL now as resistance, or the opposite (quite likely)
Up to 800 and break back into channel (unlikely)
None of the above (almost certain)
I expect a lot of whipping around these TLs/50EMAs then a big move.
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counter_violent
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Trendline Values
Trendline Values Next Four Days - Resistance & Support
WED THURS FRI MON
H 815 790 765 745
L 715 725 735 745
Although i very much doubt we will get to Monday
counter
Trendline Values Next Four Days - Resistance & Support
WED THURS FRI MON
H 815 790 765 745
L 715 725 735 745
Although i very much doubt we will get to Monday
counter
Last edited:
roguetrader
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Hi counter, do you have a chart that shows your lower trendline, I am inline with the upper values more or less but cannot find a trendline that matches your lower values, thanxcounter_violent said:Trendline Values Next Four Days - Resistance & Support
WED THURS FRI MON
H 815 790 765 745
L 715 725 735 745
Although i very much doubt we will get to Monday
counter
..........................................................................................................................................................................justyn said:
Are you looking at April prices ? My SB current futures are 769 - 775 for March with Daily Cash a point lower.
...........................................................................................................................................................................peterpr said:
I only started SB indices 3 months ago and am therefore still gaining relevant experience in this sector. Would appreciate some feedback on the questions below.
Given that March Dow contracts expire at 9.15pm tomorrow are most people here already working April or even June as would appear from your above post ?
If June is already being worked what is the advantage at the higher spreads and prices over April other than avoiding rollover split spreads ?
Also does anyone here work with daily cash spreads for short term speculation rather than, or in addition to, monthly spreads for a longer term game ?
roguetrader
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Not sure what you mean by April futures? Futures contracts expire every 3months Dec, Mar, June, Sept
Hi Kriesau
YM Futures expire every three months so most day traders are now trading June futs and then we will be trading September etc etc.
The futs reperesent the future value of the Dow on their settlement day in June and the consensus must be that the Dow will be higher in June so the futs price is 30 points or so higher than the index itself. As we get closer to the expiry date this gap will gradually reduce.
Hope this helps.
Justyn.
YM Futures expire every three months so most day traders are now trading June futs and then we will be trading September etc etc.
The futs reperesent the future value of the Dow on their settlement day in June and the consensus must be that the Dow will be higher in June so the futs price is 30 points or so higher than the index itself. As we get closer to the expiry date this gap will gradually reduce.
Hope this helps.
Justyn.
tradesmart
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SB's are quoting "Wall Street April" but where they get the data from I don't know...currently around 10743/10751
And the futs tank 40 points......moving target or what.....?...
And the futs tank 40 points......moving target or what.....?...
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peterpr
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kriesau said:
Kriesau
Each SB provider has their own unique algorithms/methods of setting their own cash index quotes. When the relevant market is open, the biggest weighting for each quote is the dominant futures contract - adjusted for 'fair-value'. For the DOW right now, that is the June expiry contract.and its 'fair value is about 30 point higher than the main index.
Fair value says nothing about where people believe the index will be at expiry. It represents the current index value + the cash equivalent interest that would be incurred in holding the contract to expiryy + various other adjustments (expected dividends etc) - all calculated for the remaining period to expiry. As the expiry date approaches, so the main index value and its futures converge.
When trading a SB cash index during market hours, the best index to watch is the native futures index - not its absolute value, but its movement, since movement in the future tends to precede the main index (due to arbitrage and hedging activity). Out of hours ? - well, anybody's guess - news, world indices etc etc.
peterpr, i know about cost of carry, but i was wondering if you knew about the convergence. if you short a future which has carried a premium of 30 points(like june dow) , do you essentially receive that premium as it closes on expiry? If you are long the future you are paying the price as of c.o.c but the reverse?
peterpr
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lemput said:
IF you use a SB or CFD provider, it'll all work in with their quotes at open and close of each trade + interest earned/charged and divident adjustments whilst the position is open. That's because the provider has to hedge their open positions (to whatever extent their internal risk parameters dictate) by dealing in the underlying stocks. If you trade the native future there's no adjustment. You incur or earn the 'carry cost' as a points premium according to your position.
