Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[jonnyy40]

I recently reopened my SB account.I'd forgotten how mad the spreads are.+ when I log off AOL closes quite often.I wish I'd known about screenprint when I first started as an incriminating window appeared on my screen.I'll be closing the account forthwith.

 

[User]

Crude currently at the highs but having a little resistance at 5535. Should it close below $55 I think the Dow will travel towards 10800.

 

[lemput]

yea user, resistance as easy trade to try and short crude here and put stops by the high, but if they get squeezed this could run, but maybe not tonight!

 

[User]

I've done precisely that!

Lets see. Alot of knews out tomarrow concering oil and know doubt it concerns the dow aswell.

 

[RUDEBOY]

IMHO!, i thinks, if it doesn't break 750 today it won't...for a few days, could touch 900ish? Reasons? markets collected a good bit of supportive vol over the past few days. But, not enough to detract it fully from its recent mid-term down-trend?

 

[lemput]

crude closing, tend to get a bit of relief on the street! 8 0'clock rally anyone...

 

[User]

Don't know about a rally but I'd say we will close near to 10800.

 

[tradesmart]

a bit of relief on the street!

Yes, as soon as Nymex closes, stocks attempt to rally - same as yesterday....

but whether they'll get very far remains to be seen....

I noticed that May crude popped it's head over $56/b towards the end of the session...

The Saudis may be threatening to increase output, but the price hasn't noticed yet....

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, under strong US pressure, is on the verge of increasing its official production quotas this spring, with some members seeking an immediate lift in output and others preferring a delayed increase from May 1 should prices remain near their record nominal highs.

 

[roguetrader]

The sort of action we are seeing in the market seems to suggest that it needs a very good reason to go up but that it would take very little reason to produce a major selloff, just my thoughts

 

[User]

Very simiar thoughts to mine! It seems like 11,000 is well and truely over. No chance.

 

[counter_violent]

Lots of nervous traders out there judging by the price action today

 

[roguetrader]

Some imprtant numbers out pre-market tomorrow
Building Permits
Housing Starts
Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production

 

[lemput]

thats more like we want to see...

 

[peterpr]

Some imprtant numbers out pre-market tomorrow
Building Permits
Housing Starts
Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production

You missed the biggie: 4th Quarter current account, trade figure - 8:30EST.

Consensus says $184 billion deficit - annualised $736 billion !!

 

[justyn]

I'm thinking pump and dump today - maybe up to 850 then down. I don't see room on the 10 min chart for much upside.

Looks like I was right, didn't get to 850 but the double top at 832 was good enough to prompt a short.

 

[lemput]

u deserved that after being unlucky at 832ish last week! key will be followthrough. we are bang on that s&p trendline. do we push on or trend back to 800+

 

[User]

I think a move towards 10600 seems very likely. I believe the upward move that we've seen for two years is over. Start of the bear market should be underway soon. 11,000 doesn't seem possible. 10,000 seems more possible and I know its silly I say that as we are closer to 11,000 then 10,000. Alot of dark clouds hovering over wall street. The Dow seems as if its ready to roll over the cliff.

 

[User]

Goodcall justyn. I didn't get in as I thought we would test the 850 area.

10700 could provide support as we have a trendline from 2004 lows.

See chart attached. Very important trendline in my opinion.

 

[roguetrader]

Interesting as I have us right on that trendline now.
A gap down tomorrow could be interesting

 

[justyn]

The 10 minute chart is showing RSI at 30 and CCI at close to -200 so not much room for more down tomorrow IMO.

The big picture looks like a large H&S to me so 600 could be on the cards but not just yet. When the left shoulder formed there were several bounces between 750 & 850 so we could see the same range again now that we are forming the right shoulder.

I'll be looking to see what happens when we get up to 800 tomorrow.

Justyn.