Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[lemput]

agree with that. dow is really struggling as AIG/caterpillar holding it down a little

 

[User]

The day so far on the Dow..........

 

[lemput]

you're right there user, dow is dull. oil is in nice little ranges as well though, you in and out or taking a longer position. oil wont do much until 6.30-7.30 - thats when people can start pushing it.

 

[User]

I'm in with a short at the moment for the short term. Reckon we will see $50 a barrel before the high is taken out. Don't know if I will hold for the longer term. I'll see how it goes....

Hope it don't stabalise above $54. Looks like it is....

 

[lemput]

markets come off a bit - crude at 55! yellen just spoke and was a little too reassuring on interest rates for my liking. that support stocks a little.

 

[frugi]

Would you like a stop run with that sir? Nasty little tricksters

 

[RUDEBOY]

Big tramps undies!, a move up now wouldn't even look right?

 

[User]

Nice action from the lows lets see if it closes above 10800.

Worth noting that the low of the day was 10750 which I mentioned as support earliar.

Seeing it bounce from that point may suggest some upward action which would possibly let us play with 10850-70.

 

[peterpr]

Sorry to revisit this COTs saga again, but the plot thickens

I've had a good chunter around the COT pages at: http://www.softwarenorth.com/trading/commitmentscurrent/

It seems that the net commercial position on the YM (mini) contract is pretty well the direct opposite of the DJX (100ths) contract) see charts.

Now I wonder why that should be?

The S&P mini and main contracts are roughly similar (ie they are both net short and both fairly consistent over a full year, but not the DOW. Its 2 contracts have been consistently inconsistent - if you see what I mean.

Anyway, the fact that the main DOW contract and both S&P's show commercials with large net shorts tends to support U's original post

 

[lemput]

good action on crude today, above the 5 day mov. average, could still be a good test of highs tomorrow before we get the inventories. We've tended to rise in anticipation of these reports so this should be interesting.
For all shorters, dow performance not overly impressive. we were due to give a bit back, so all in all fairly quiet....

 

[User]

The close above 10800 gives us a great case for fighting with 10850-70. Although traders should be aware that this area will give alot of resistance and it might even be worth entering shorts at those levels.

Peterpr thanks for clarifying the situation.

I think it might be worth entering longs at 10800 with limits at around 10850-870.

We'll see what we do later on. Dow trade gave small gains, currencys did well and oil is currently losing but has extremely high levels of resistance starting from $55 plus.

 

[RUDEBOY]

I can only see sell, maybe waiting to see 830ish to try and anticipate a few points before going in, as some more down vol generated. Could 850 be losing it's effectiveness as resistance? All will be revealed?

 

[User]

Right I just had a look at the charts and well we have some interesting stuff.

If you draw a trendline from the high we made then 10810 would break that trendline which would ignite a move up. If the 10750-700 trendline area snaps then a move to 10600 would be definate.

So some crucial areas tomarrow.

Just for the record I will be going long tomarrow. Infact I have entered one position long already and I will be looking to add more tomarrow. Could be a volatile day though.

 

[roguetrader]

Down trendlines from 07/03 almost in play now, SPX around 1208, INDU around 10839, and COMPQ right around here. Both SPX and INDU closed right under their 20 day sma's

 

[tradesmart]

More on Indicators:-

Technical indicators also raised some concerns after last week’s market action. In his daily market commentary to clients, long-time analyst Dennis Gartman noted that the NYSE Composite index and the ratio of advancing stocks to decliners at the Big Board last week reversed recent upward trends, alongside a medium-term proprietary indicator from Lowry’s Reports, which pointed to a sell-off in the next few months. “Historically I’ve learnt that we need to watch these numbers, because not paying attention could be costly,” Mr Gartman said.

Hmmm.........

 

[User]

Thats why I want the chance to load up on my big shorts as I see this upward trend that started two years ago as over...Start of the bear market this year. No doubt.

 

[jonnyy40]

 

[FetteredChinos]

going up this week.

11,000 possibly on wednesday

 

[User]

Lehmans done the business! The question is how high will the Dow go? Retail sales also out soon and also the dollar along with oil will be watched for todays trading action!

10850-70 should be hit but will it be sustained !?

 

[justyn]

I'm thinking pump and dump today - maybe up to 850 then down. I don't see room on the 10 min chart for much upside.