roguetrader
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For the bulk of the day the internals have skated around neutral, that for me gives the day no discernable direction, any movement in one direction will require very little buying or selling pressure to change that direction, to me its really nothing more than a coin toss day. Nice big move off the open and that was it for me.
But if you can trade that then fair play, just not for me.
But if you can trade that then fair play, just not for me.
peterpr
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The futures have run up 15 points or so in the 10 minutes following the NYSE close. That's something you don't see too often. Could portend some serious buying at the open tomorrow. IG have spotted it too - their DOW cash quote moved about 10 points up in tandem. Hmmm.
peterpr
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Exactly - So how do MM's try to get things moving? why they mark prices up and down looking for volume. So prices move around looking for either buyers or sellers and will keep moving one way until volume either dries up or spikes a price reversal. Unless of course the volume spike presages a real range breakout, in which case routine tight stops are confirmed as being de-rigeur. Otherwise most of these little highs and lows are not too difficult to spot and can be traded very profitably. Seems Frugi and I play a similar hand.roguetrader said:
peterpr said:
Peterpr
Agree with everything above, particularly the essential stoploss. I take it from your previous post today that these intraday swings are more pronounced at present.
Still, I am enjoying these intraday swings. Very lucrative couple of weeks.
roguetrader
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peterpr said:
Fair play, the past couple of months have been great and I'd be just as happy to stay in this range for the rest of the year, though it would probably become a little boring. I don't like tight stops, I run my trades off the internals and I find that works best if they have discernable direction, there is still plenty of scope for trading both ways most days as the internals do not have to continue in one direction, I find counter trend trades easier to guage, and reversals easier to spot when the internals are not sat on the neutral line.
The mornig trade was a great example, very strong opening internals which reversed nice dump through into 4pm
peterpr
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Minder said:
To be honest I find the placing of the stop the most probematical. Often there will be a number key levels clustered together within say 5-10 points of each other and you just know other traders are watching various combinations of them too. Its a matter of judgement - real time - to decide which one will turn out to be the most influential. If you choose the first as your entry with a fixed stop you will be stopped on a high proportion of trades, If you choose an entry further away, you will be filled on a lower percentage of tries. My success rate is largely a function of giving undivided attention to the price volume action whilst approaching pre-defined key levels and varying my orders accordingly. That's why I don't regard what I do as speculation; it's concentrated work, but intellectually challenging and therefore enjoyable. I have found that, once decided upon - rightly or wrongly with hindsight - moving a stop is rarely a good move though
I don't think the intra-day swings are more pronounced - just more of them = more opportunities for my kind of trades.
peterpr
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Racer said:
It's significance - if it turns out to be significant at all - is precisely in the time it happened. ie in the 15 minutes between the NYSE and pit traded futures closes. Pit traded DOW futures do still account for the lions share (by value) of DOW futures traded and those guys are a lot closer to the market than I am - What they do can be VERY significant. I notice the YM has drifted down again overnight, but on barely measurable volume, whereas the pre-close move was on high volume. I won't be constructing a trade based on it, but it will make me a bit more wary of trading any gap - unless its a negative one with no obvious news trigger of course, in which case I'll probably double my normal size.
User
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Friday's breakout is looking fantastic at the moment.........
So happy that I added to my shorts........largely impressive..........
Breakout-----Fakeout.......
So far......Its not looking good.....
Just as I was saying a few days ago.....Another 100 point decline and that leaves us in play for the lows not highs........
So happy that I added to my shorts........largely impressive..........
Breakout-----Fakeout.......
So far......Its not looking good.....
Just as I was saying a few days ago.....Another 100 point decline and that leaves us in play for the lows not highs........
peterpr
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Well it turned out to be insignificantpeterpr said:
- at least as far as the opening action was concerned. There was a gap down from the close too - but since it was only to where it stood at the main market close yesterday, I called it evens and passed on it . Problem is I've also missed the entire down move so far too Never mind, can't catch them all.Hmm - whilst I'm still bearish, todays decline does not look too convincing at the moment. Nasdaq still level and the SPX just 1pt off. I took a short at 10580 but closed it out at 10555 to take the profit. I've taken another stop short on the July contract at 10545 as insurance.user said:
roguetrader
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I wouldn't get too excited yet, the breakout, as far as the INDU is concerned, has indeed been a fakeout, the SPX for the moment remains above its breakout point, just. The significance and cause for excitment of a failed breakout is the it is generally followed by a violent reaction in the other direction as all those who bought the breakout sell in panic and the bears get the green light to pile on the shorts, clearly that has not happened.
Since the "breakout" occured on quad witching volume levels were skewed and therefore it was difficult to get an impression of just how many people bought into it.
The other important point, for me, is that this rally was Nasdaq led, the Nasdaq has not broken out as yet, 2100 remains an impasse, and I do not believe this market at this time is going anywhere fast until the Nasdaq makes a move. So for now I see this merely as an extension of the range.
I do believe that the Nasdaq needs to deal with the 2100 level soon or there is an increasing liklyhood of a selloff from disappointed bulls.
But as always that is just my view.
Since the "breakout" occured on quad witching volume levels were skewed and therefore it was difficult to get an impression of just how many people bought into it.
The other important point, for me, is that this rally was Nasdaq led, the Nasdaq has not broken out as yet, 2100 remains an impasse, and I do not believe this market at this time is going anywhere fast until the Nasdaq makes a move. So for now I see this merely as an extension of the range.
I do believe that the Nasdaq needs to deal with the 2100 level soon or there is an increasing liklyhood of a selloff from disappointed bulls.
But as always that is just my view.
roguetrader
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Internals reluctant to support this move at the moment. Declining issues on both markets still outnumber advancers by a slight margin
I should point out having said that, that levels are improving .
I should point out having said that, that levels are improving .
roguetrader
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coming into lunch and the Nasdaq has moved above 2100, the quality of the move looks, to me to be weak, a revrersal here would be onteresting.
User
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Is that nice enough for you?
Please guys don't say I didnt warn you.....My shorts are going crazy......
A few days ago I said we're sitting at 10600......200point decline in a few days would then favour the lows over the highs.....and thats all it takes.......
A little bit more downside and the bullish case will soon evaporate........
In terms of resistance on the Nasdaq well the chart just doesn't look good now......
2100 is a killer!......
