Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[roguetrader]

How come ALL the flipping tech analysis was bullish...what the *** happended today? I sat and watched my long suffer\!!!.....then hedged ....took loss......User......thanks for the warning mate....i was trading on what i could see on the charts.....could not "see" this!
Gosh! what a day.....i am happy with the hedging decision but could have taken the loss sooner! live and learn hey!

Bakula, where were you long from? and when from?

 

[peterpr]

More on the spike. Interesting item for discussion + does it have any forecasting value?

If the bid side of the order book did dry up, it's not something that happens too often. I've left short positions open overnight - breaking the rules but ... judge it low risk this time. Think there's more to come. The 3 day swing is now substantially down so that has to be my bias

Attached 200 tick chart shows the spike. The last 100 points down took just a few seconds.

 

[peterpr]

I pity the trader who sold at 10294 (LOD - not marked on snapshot)

The perils of 'at market' orders eh? I rarely push that button these days

Just shows though - if you have orders sitting there at a silly prices, they MAY just get filled - by people in a panic. Corporal Jones springs to mind

 

[peterpr]

How come ALL the flipping tech analysis was bullish...what the *** happended today? I sat and watched my long suffer\!!!.....then hedged ....took loss......User......thanks for the warning mate....i was trading on what i could see on the charts.....could not "see" this!
Gosh! what a day.....i am happy with the hedging decision but could have taken the loss sooner! live and learn hey!

Commiserations.
If it's any consolation - and it should be - there's one thing I can promise you: taking a big loss can be one of the best value-for-money learning excercises available. Start, one way or another, by making damned sure it doesn't happen again - All in my ever so HO.

 

[reddragon]

Exponential MA at EOD

Hi all,
I'm using Prophet.net charting software and on the 2 year/daily chart the 200 day EXPONENTIAL ma stands @ 10,420.99 at the end of the day. Could someone confirm
with other chrtng s/ware ?
Dead cats rule ok !!!!!!
Reddragon.

 

[roguetrader]

I'm using Prophet.net charting software and on the 2 year/daily chart the 200 day EXPONENTIAL ma stands @ 10,420.99 at the end of the day. Could someone confirm
with other chrtng s/ware ?

Esignal shows it at 10,416.86

Of course wgat are you looking at, futures or cash?

 

[reddragon]

Hi,
Cash.

Sod it ! this could mean that a change to another charting s/ware will give different figs.
for various indicators, thus invalidating previous parameters set by the original s/ware.

 

[User]

I've left short positions open overnight - breaking the rules but ... judge it low risk this time.

Good Decision.....

Fantastic day........

Break-out or Fake-out

Well, yes we saw a break-out on Friday? But after such a long period of tight range travelling this is hardly looking solid on the upside. To be fair we haven't seen much selling however the markets are really finding upside difficult. The top doesn't seem to be too far away. While everyone is getting comfortable in this slow moving market, please beware as the down moves could well be quicker then the previous few declines we've seen. 10,000 seems likely. Will it crack when we see it? Well, time will tell.....

As for 11,000? Well we were at the highs when I was still skeptical of this level and I still can't see us touching that level......

Is Oil going higher? Is the market deaf?! Well yes, we normally see the market ignore oil in this manner and then we get a delayed reaction..........

Where are we now? 10600.....

What happens if we see a two day sell-off resulting in a 200 point drop? Well yes we would be at 10400. How would the market seem then?

600 from the highs and 400 from the lows......At the moment we're about 400 points from the highs and 600 from the lows......The point I'm making is don't get too comfortable.....If your long then please have your stops in tact as the market moves down faster than it moves up.......

Good Luck.....

I've added to shorts once again......

It was too perfect.....only one thing which didnt work out.....I was suggesting the move to be done in the space of two days but I aint complaining that it did it in one (Dow). Just lucky I kept on adding and adding and adding to my shorts and added a little more.......

Where now?

Well a test of 10400 for sure.....yes technically the 10400 area is good support BUT as Rougue trader suggested the charts are looking damn ugly...........All the ******* about from the bulls over a few months trying to push it higher and the sleeping bears did the damage in one day....incredible.....I was favouring 10000 once again over 11000 but now I favour it a little more......

 

[Robertral]

Hi,
Cash.

Sod it ! this could mean that a change to another charting s/ware will give different figs.
for various indicators, thus invalidating previous parameters set by the original s/ware.

The guys on the pit are saying that trades will be busted, but they are not sure to what level....defo 10390 in the bigs, but the mini's I'm dure didn't even trade down there according to BB....I found a low of 10345 in 1 lot........we saw the thing plumet then tried to buy a **** load but by the time we knew what was happening the move had reverted back...oh well.....good night tho, much needed 1% vol injection......

 

[Racer]

To the bottom of the trading range since the middle of May in one day... ouch for bulls!

 

[frugi]

The guys on the pit are saying that trades will be busted, but they are not sure to what level....defo 10390 in the bigs, but the mini's I'm sure didn't even trade down there according to BB....I found a low of 10345 in 1 lot......

Have a nasty feeling they will be busted. I've read the eCBOT manual but am none the wiser to be honest. That 10345 1-lot might have been mine on the mini! (post #5055) ... ah well, thought it was too good to be true. Thanks for passing on the gossip anyway.

Edit: Gleaned from "another source":

"Just got done speaking with VP of Investigations. The trades will stand. The bust range for the YM is 250 points. This move didn't go far enough." :cheesy:

 

[roguetrader]

Hi,
Cash.

Sod it ! this could mean that a change to another charting s/ware will give different figs.
for various indicators, thus invalidating previous parameters set by the original s/ware.

EMA's can be a bitof a problem as there are different ways of calculating them depending on whether they are percentage based or period based. I only use sma's

 

[kriesau]

North, I keep telling you, and you don't listen.

"There is a very fine line dividing sense from nonsense"

How very true !! :cheesy:

 

[bakula]

Thanks for the pointer Peterpr-appreciated and understood! Ouch! never ever again will i sit watching this baby tank......oh! i WILL NOT NOT NOT keep re-adjusting my stop loss to suit my "opinion"!!
Yes! i have lent my money to the bears for now...until i get it back ....with a profit!

Roguetrader, i have realised what mistake i made.....Since the 21st june......I placed a trade @10614(prior to this, for about 3 days i kept buying £2 per point or £5 per point/spreadbetting and managed to trail stops with proft etc...got stopped out, taking profits) However, this particualr trade-i did not place a stop loss initially...then the move was uncertain on the daily and as i was at work...kept a loose stop loss....kept making this looser and looser to stay in the trade...finaly stopped myself out today! Hedged by selling and taking in profit to ofset but a big dent in my account!
Spreadbetting....finding spreads too far apart...learning cfd/mini dow etc.
What a lesson!.....;-\0

 

[kriesau]

Notwistanding the previous I still say, and in accordance with all my previous comments till now, that the Dow is in Bull Phase.

Right - now is everyone clear about that ? :cheesy:

 

[Racer]

Thanks for the pointer Peterpr-appreciated and understood! Ouch! never ever again will i sit watching this baby tank......oh! i WILL NOT NOT NOT keep re-adjusting my stop loss to suit my "opinion"!!
Yes! i have lent my money to the bears for now...until i get it back ....with a profit!

Roguetrader, i have realised what mistake i made.....Since the 21st june......I placed a trade @10614(prior to this, for about 3 days i kept buying £2 per point or £5 per point/spreadbetting and managed to trail stops with proft etc...got stopped out, taking profits) However, this particualr trade-i did not place a stop loss initially...then the move was uncertain on the daily and as i was at work...kept a loose stop loss....kept making this looser and looser to stay in the trade...finaly stopped myself out today! Hedged by selling and taking in profit to ofset but a big dent in my account!
Spreadbetting....finding spreads too far apart...learning cfd/mini dow etc.
What a lesson!.....;-\0

Market likes to do that.. you think ah yes I gotcha.. and you make profits.. and then it hits you in the face and says no way.. you don't get me, I am the market!
Crowd reversals.. snap to the other side. And what happens tomorrow... I don't know.. maybe the bulls will get up and fight back cos they are still pretty strong after this run lately

 

[roguetrader]

Hi Bakula, sorry you took a bit of a hit, hazard of the game as they say. As long as lessons were learnt then you can consider it education costs to some extent. Stops are a dangerous thing to alter, because if time and thought has gone into properly placing them they represent a level below which the trade has proved you wrong and you do not want to be in it anymore.
The reason I asked about your trade was that I was curious if you placed it today, as the Nasdaq broke out, as technicals should have kept you safe rather than steered you wrong, but as you have had it on for a number of days that is a different matter.

 

[bakula]

Racer, yeah! it felt like the market was out to get me today! But to sit there watching the trade go against u is just plain stupid! I accept this and no intention of letting history repeat on this this one!

My head is handed back to me! right now am analysing and re-analysing my thoughts and fears at the time of trade and looking to trade with a clear head!

I do find the experience of trading very very spiritual....get to learn about oneself and behaviour patterns with a hard knock!
so i'm off to meditate and perhaps hibernate for an hour or two! Cheers for the encourgement to all who post on here,love being part of the community;-)

 

[roguetrader]

coming into lunch and the Nasdaq has moved above 2100, the quality of the move looks, to me to be weak, a revrersal here would be onteresting.

Well it certainly was interesting.

An eventful day to say the least, the charts may have looked bullish before today, but the days action certainly took the shine off that somewhat. One of the problems with breakouts on a day like quad witching is that the days volume is skewed by the event, so it is very difficult to see how much participation there has been. I read quite a few articles over the weekend talking about the great volume that accompanied the breakout, but large volume is normal for quarterly expiry.
As I said to User earlier in the day, to call a failed breakout, we really need the Nasdaq involved since it led this particular rally, and it hadn't brok out yet, and then as is common with failed breakouts we should have a very negative and opposite reaction.
Well I couldn't have scripted that better, the Nasdaq promptly got off its ass brokeout, and then the wheels fell off. INDU not only fell back into the previous range, it went clean through that and took out the 200 day sma, closing 23 points below it. Tidy days work. If we get follow through tomorrow, I show support from 10,375 50 day sma up to around 10,400 a swing high in the May rally. Tomorrow should be very interesting

 

[karmit]

opportunity for a ~30 point long today after open?