Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[peterpr]

Futures look strong at the moment, but how often have we seen them fall sharply at the open?

Quite often actually. A quick look reveals 4 times in the past month or so, with an equal number of similar gap downs. Each of those gap ups has produced a positive day and all have been closed either on the day or the day after. Not a lot to be gleaned from that I guess, except that DOW opening gap plays are pretty reliable.

 

[Pat494]

When some people say up and some say down, it usually works out a bit of both or the third way perhaps ? So I say quite positively, quite definatively and with absolute uncertainty it should go sideways today !!

 

[roguetrader]

Strong internals here at the open COMPQ broke and is testing 2100

A failed break here could spark a swift move in the opposite direction.

 

[roguetrader]

Internals backig off rapidly, early volume light so far

 

[peterpr]

Well there's another classic YM opening gap play concluded. Have to say I was a bit nervous earlier. I went short 10:30 at 10680 but closed for just 9 points at 10671 before the open (nice to count the chickens isn't it?). After the open, another short at 10669 (R1 pivot ) was irresistable - took it and just closed a 10646 for another 23 points. So here's one happy chappy.

Not sure how much longer that kind of thing can go on for, it's so damned transparent

 

[User]

I went short at the higher prices as well.....too many shorts...

Its moving lower at the moment.....

I think we'll sit above 10600 before oil numbers come out.

 

[peterpr]

Another factor to consider for you swing traders (haven't seen it mentioned here yet): Month and quarter ends are looming. Low volume will prompt window-dressing mark ups - just another minor matter supporting the bull case.

 

[leeshindig]

Well there's another classic YM opening gap play concluded. Have to say I was a bit nervous earlier. I went short 10:30 at 10680 but closed for just 9 points at 10671 before the open (nice to count the chickens isn't it?). After the open, another short at 10669 (R1 pivot ) was irresistable - took it and just closed a 10646 for another 23 points. So here's one happy chappy.

Not sure how much longer that kind of thing can go on for, it's so damned transparent

Peter the markets are as complicated as you make them....

Glad to see your game is being helped by pivots..

regards

Lee.

 

[peterpr]

Glad to see your game is being helped by pivots.

Wouldn't be without them. Not sure how useful they would be for anyone other than day traders but the fact that they are monitored (and acted upon???) by lots of players means any serious day trader ought to be aware of them and ready to interpret how prices move through/bounce off them etc.

 

[User]

Pump N Pop

Good stuff.....

Still confident on the 500-600point drop on the Dow......

Not today though......

 

[User]

Whats the best thing about todays move so far on the Dow?

Oil hasn't moved.......A Swing of 100points at the release of the figures and oil is sitting at the same levels pre to the release......

Whats the best thing about todays Nasdaq moves......

We opened up around 10 points and the Dow was up about 40. In percentage terms the Nasdaq was leading........2100 hit, then we see 2101 and then pop.......

Now the dow is down 6 point and the Nasdaq is down 6.....incredible reversal on the Nasdaq as it leads the way lower in terms of percentage.......

 

[roguetrader]

Internals slightly bearish on the Nasdaq, neutral on NYSE.
Support levels held so far, bears not capitalising on the weakness as yet.

One point worth notinghowever is that Nasdaq volume has picked up quite a bit, and bears watching No pun intended

 

[roguetrader]

Important levels imho.
Nasdaq 2076 top of a gapbetween 14th 15th June.
SPX 1213 gap from16th - 17thm then 1209 breakout.
INDU cash doesn't show gaps so am snookered there, 10,570 - 580 previous resistance.
All in my opinion of course

TRINS high now NYSE 1.12 Nasdaq 1.54

 

[Minder]

To my untrained eye, these intraday moves have offered great opportunities to profit. Are these swings typical of the intraday moves in the dow or is it a case of making hay while the sun shines ?

 

[roguetrader]

No dicernable direction, it's just chop, I wouldn't rade that.

 

[josbarr]

No dicernable direction, it's just chop, I wouldn't rade that.

Ideal condition for a trading system like Coin Collector

 

[frugi]

To my untrained eye, these intraday moves have offered great opportunities to profit. Are these swings typical of the intraday moves in the dow or is it a case of making hay while the sun shines

No discernible direction, it's just chop, I wouldn't trade that.

For what it's worth, this is my ideal sort of day - 4 or 5 decent reversals in a respectable range and clear P&V patterns that jump out from the chart, e.g. both up moves 5 waves, 123s that actually delivered, some classic candles to mark the bottoms, volume climaxes and dry ups where you'd expect them etc. But what is music to one is the sound of drilling to another, and thus a market welcomes another pair of participants.

Yeah I know, hindsight etc.

But chop is a little mean I think, roguey, given that we've seen a 66 point range today. +/-20 or 30 would be poison suey, but of course that's just a personal view. Give me a trend and I'll screw it up every time while you're sat on it laughing all the way to Coutts.

 

[sandrab]

the dow looks stuck in his range

 

[User]

the dow looks stuck in his range

Well the Dow's breakout on Friday doesn't seem valid enough so yes we're probably in a extended range......

 

[peterpr]

No dicernable direction, it's just chop, I wouldn't rade that.

Not all trading needs 'discernible direction'. I've had some of my best days y-t-d over the past couple of months, usually trading both directions on the same day too. Have to say I missed some good moves today, but that was only because, having bagged 30 odd% of my weekly target within half an hour of the open, I decided to have a relaxed sunny summer day in the garden.

Personally, I'm quite happy to continue in this vein, just need to guard against complacency that's all.