Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[roguetrader]

Shaping up for a bumpy start to the week, open gaps below may be filled, not much in the way of economic data this week, so we may get an early test of the bulls resolve. Volume on Friday was difficult to guage due to expiry. Looking for support to hold on the INDU at 10,578, and 1210 on the SPX. Nasdaq still has formidable resistance overhead at 2100.
I told her to correct to 2018 before moving up here, but she wouldn't listen

Gaps were duly filled with a slight overshoot on the INDU, but support held leaving us not far from unchanged on the day. Yet again an opportunity for the bears went begging, volume declined considerably from Friday, though as it was quad witching no surprise there, but volume also declined from Thur and Wed so the pattern of higher volume on the up days and lower on the down days persists. Internals were bearish throughout the day with only a brief visit to positive teritory in the last hour. After another brief visit below the 200 week sma the SOX closed with a bullish hammer above it. With little in the way of economic data this week, all the talk is of crude oil and its move toward the $60 mark.
As with the past few weeks the risk remains to the upside and we could well see a run into the quarter end.

 

[kriesau]

No major news today. Needs to break through 10660 if it is going to move up and 10550 to move down. Could be a consolidation day between these two levels.

Perhaps more of the same today :!:

 

[User]

Break-out or Fake-out

Well, yes we saw a break-out on Friday? But after such a long period of tight range travelling this is hardly looking solid on the upside. To be fair we haven't seen much selling however the markets are really finding upside difficult. The top doesn't seem to be too far away. While everyone is getting comfortable in this slow moving market, please beware as the down moves could well be quicker then the previous few declines we've seen. 10,000 seems likely. Will it crack when we see it? Well, time will tell.....

As for 11,000? Well we were at the highs when I was still skeptical of this level and I still can't see us touching that level......

Is Oil going higher? Is the market deaf?! Well yes, we normally see the market ignore oil in this manner and then we get a delayed reaction..........

Where are we now? 10600.....

What happens if we see a two day sell-off resulting in a 200 point drop? Well yes we would be at 10400. How would the market seem then?

600 from the highs and 400 from the lows......At the moment we're about 400 points from the highs and 600 from the lows......The point I'm making is don't get too comfortable.....If your long then please have your stops in tact as the market moves down faster than it moves up.......

Good Luck.....

I've added to shorts once again...... :arrowd:

 

[DaveJB]

I don't see that

10,000 seems likely.

look at the daily chart - bottom 10000 in April, uptrend since (nice dip in mid May), we've got a consolidation through to Friday but with rising bottoms for a good few days now - it's the tops that aren't breaking, wouldn't you expect a bearish market to have the bottoms being threatened? - They aren't, it's the tops that are continually being tested.

The most bearish I'd get right now is to say that the consolidation is about to repeat in the 'just above 10600 level' rather than the 'just below' we've seen for the last few weeks. I honestly don't get this bearish viewpoint, yes the fundamentals for the whole economy are enough to suggest it'll be $1000 to the can of coke any day now, but whilst failing to go higher is certainly worth putting into the 'not sure I'm overly bullish' camp it's a long way from presaging a fall - for a bear case I wan't to see the lows being pushed, not the tops.

Yesterday was the first down candle for what, 2 weeks? It also closed well off the daily low. If you keep saying 'bear' you'll be right one day.....

Still, be a boring old world if we all agreed, wouldn't it?

 

[kriesau]

A classic Bull and Bear clash - you takes yer pick !
FWIW - I'm in your camp User.

 

[kriesau]

The Fed is highly likely to continue its interest hikes over the coming months says Gary Stern of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank. The 2% increase over the past 9 months has had less of a restraining influence on growth, which is still forecasted to be 3.5% this year, plus long term bond rates have gone down rather than up which would normally be expected in response to Fed rate hikes. Inflationary pressures are still sufficient to be of concern and oil prices are still rising, rather than receding, as the Fed had anticipated.

Ongoing below neutral interest rates have stimulated housing prices and consequently consumer spending, which has offset the impact of the trade deficit on the economy. Continued domestic economic strength and a stronger dollar will make it more difficult to address the growing trade deficit which still remains an area of concern for the Fed.

Maybe they regard the inevitable bursting of the housing bubble as the real catalyst for choking off domestic consumer demand and are ultimately relying on this as bringing to an end the need for further Fed rate hikes.

 

[roguetrader]

He he User, I see you haven't softened your view
Fwiw you both have a point. DaveJB, looking at the charts favours higher, there is really nothing much to support a bearish view here.
The longer this ranging drags on however, the more the fundamentals are going to weigh on the market. If I was going to go short here it would be with no stops, and buckle in for the long haul, I believe time would make that a profitable trade, but it would be a ballsy trade. If your gonna run with stops however I think that there is likely to be better, and or less risky entries

 

[DaveJB]

It's perhaps the difference between trading what you see, probably over a short term period, and trading what you believe ought to happen... I've found, generally speaking, that the latter is expensive.

Right now (7.58) we have the market bouncing between say 10608 and 10622, there have been what - 8 opportunities to trade a 10c or so move in the past 2 hours? A longer view, wanting more than 10c is forced to take a position - the current impasse will resolve to one side or the other, the position is taken accordingly and the trader hopes (based on experience etc I trust <g>) that the resolution will be in the expected direction. Meanwhile the trader who doesn't forecast but who is content with 5 cents a time has taken 40c.....

Now down to 10600... next few minutes could be interesting...<g>

 

[User]

Still, be a boring old world if we all agreed, wouldn't it?

I agree.

At the moment this market just seems too 'bullish' or I think 'confident' is a better word.

Also we're getting some people suggesting that we have no resistance and the next stop is the highs.......

Well 10600-630 is a filthy area of resistance on the weekly charts...............

On the daily charts we have strong resistance at 10850 area. So its not easy on the upside.....

Indicators suggest overbought, indicators suggesting overly bullish, indicators suggesting complacency..........That’s just the technical’s the fundamentals are worse then the technical’s.........Not a good mix in my eyes for the bullish case......

Should be interesting to see how things develop.......

 

[peterpr]

Still, be a boring old world if we all agreed, wouldn't it?

I agree.

I disagree

 

[Racer]

I disagree

And I can see both sides of the argument

 

[JillyB]

And I can see both sides of the argument

Nothing like sitting on the fence, eh?

 

[kriesau]

Dow Futures up 47pts at 10.45.
NDX Futures up even further at 21pts
Bulls appear to be really rampant this morning !

Oil up at $59.20
US Energy Inventories due out at 10.30EST
Morgan Stanley reporting 2Q earnings - expected to be around 92c, down from $1.10 last year.
Financial stocks look bearish at the moment !



Today just might be interesting !

 

[Minder]

Dow futures pumped up to 10652 daily cash contract. US daily light crude over $59 a barrel. EIA petroleum stats due at 10.30ET.

On Monday, Bloomberg reported

"U.S. gasoline demand jumped to 9.53 million barrels a day the week ended June 17, its highest in almost two years and the third- highest level on record, according to the Energy Department. U.S. refineries operated at 96.7 percent of capacity the week ended June 10."

link

Cushion ?

 

[User]

Today's Session

Sustainable Up Move or a Pump N Pop

:?:

 

[peterpr]

And I can see both sides of the argument

I like it!

Only question is which argument? - Boring if everyone agreed? or DOW direction?

 

[macbonzo]

Sustainable Up Move or a Pump N Pop

:?:

Futures look strong at the moment, but how often have we seen them fall sharply at the open?

Today is really about the EIA and API figures. These figures are quite often preposterous. Two weeks ago the API suggested a 12m barrel fall in crude stocks and the EIA said 1.5m. We also have NYMEX WTI approaching $60, which is likely to trigger a stack of sells (irrespective of how weak the inventories are).

If we add to this, the fact that NYSE volumes have been around 1.25 - 1.3bn for the last 10 days, I suspect we could be in for a very volatile session (particularly around 3.30 - 4)

My chosen strategy is to sit on my hands until the dust settles. I may miss a few good opportunities but, I really think the market has to absorb the data, then stabilise.

 

[roguetrader]

My chosen strategy is to sit on my hands until the dust settles. I may miss a few good opportunities but, I really think the market has to absorb the data, then stabilise.

An old saying I came across fits that style quite well.

"I'd rather be out of a trade wishing I was in it, than in a trade wishing I was out."

Showing some early promise for an interesting day, but we do really need some volume. Nasdaq sits just below the 2100 resistance, a breakout there may interest some buyers.

 

[User]

Showing some early promise for an interesting day, but we do really need some volume. Nasdaq sits just below the 2100 resistance, a breakout there may interest some buyers.

I'm keeping an eye on that area.....I can't see it breaking out. That area is pretty tough on the daily charts

The Dow has problems at 10600-50 area on the weekly charts

The S&P has the next resistance at the highs of the year......

For some reason I think today's activity will be volatile and interesting.......

Now that I've said that we'll probably get a tight range with no action....... hope not.......

 

[twiggytwo]

I don't see that

look at the daily chart - bottom 10000 in April, uptrend since (nice dip in mid May), we've got a consolidation through to Friday but with rising bottoms for a good few days now - it's the tops that aren't breaking, wouldn't you expect a bearish market to have the bottoms being threatened? - They aren't, it's the tops that are continually being tested.

The most bearish I'd get right now is to say that the consolidation is about to repeat in the 'just above 10600 level' rather than the 'just below' we've seen for the last few weeks. I honestly don't get this bearish viewpoint, yes the fundamentals for the whole economy are enough to suggest it'll be $1000 to the can of coke any day now, but whilst failing to go higher is certainly worth putting into the 'not sure I'm overly bullish' camp it's a long way from presaging a fall - for a bear case I wan't to see the lows being pushed, not the tops.

Yesterday was the first down candle for what, 2 weeks? It also closed well off the daily low. If you keep saying 'bear' you'll be right one day.....




Still, be a boring old world if we all agreed, wouldn't it?

Hi, I agree market direction is more bullish than bearish as the lows are not being tested
I have strong consolidation at 10,633 or a buy if we close today or soon above10,646
I do not see a bearish trend unless we have a close below 10,470 in the weeks to come
I do not worry about failed intraday moves as the market needs to breathe.
IF the Dow breaks up I see 10,891as the next strong resistance, just my 2 Pence analysis from my indicator, not trading advice.
Best Regards