Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[Racer]

Racer

Any views for the rest of the day?

Sorry for not replying sooner orky, have been away from my screens and then had connection probs ....yet again! I think the Dow has already answered your question in the meantime

 

[clylbw]

Hi,

Recently we have seen the indexes pulled back in quite heavy volume, then moved up a bit in much lighter volume. I wonder what this means as it puzzles me that price seemed to move up with little volume.

BTW, do you suppose the sell-off during today's last 60 minutes or so can continue tomorrow? Many thanks.

 

[roguetrader]

Hi,

Recently we have seen the indexes pulled back in quite heavy volume, then moved up a bit in much lighter volume. I wonder what this means as it puzzles me that price seemed to move up with little volume.

BTW, do you suppose the sell-off during today's last 60 minutes or so can continue tomorrow? Many thanks.

Hi clylbw, what exactly dou you mean by "recently" could you tell me the days we pulled back on heavy volume and the days we moved up on light volume?

 

[User]

The Dow started the week lower and closed below the area of 10500. It seems highly likely that the high of last Mondays action will not be breached....

The Shorts are in place and we should starting moving lower. Last week I expected sideways movement but this week I expect lower action and this week should confirm the top of this counter trend move that we have seen....

 

[aspex]

The NDX , which has had an even bigger surge, also looks to have faltered and due a slide.
VIX has also pulled off its <12 base to over 13
VXD (reflecting the Dow) seems a little less certain as yet.

 

[JillyB]

Hi Everyone

I'm back from my hols. Have I missed much?

Ahh yes...Good consolidation between 10450 and 10550 for the past week and then yesterday a strong bear candle. Are we on the way down again? Well there is a strong level of support at 10450-460, so it will depend on whether this is breached and if the market closes below this today, then we could well see 10,300 again in the next week (possibly 10260 at a stretch).

 

[kriesau]

The Dow started the week lower and closed below the area of 10500. It seems highly likely that the high of last Mondays action will not be breached....

The Shorts are in place and we should starting moving lower. Last week I expected sideways movement but this week I expect lower action and this week should confirm the top of this counter trend move that we have seen....

Well I think that you maybe right but I wouldn't be certain that the Bulls have quite given up yet. Although we had a late sell off in the last half hour the overnight futures are currently up -Dow +20 pts, NDX +2.5pts and SPX +2.2pts.

We haven't quite broken out of the trading range 10430 - 10560 which has been in place over the last 6 sessions. Whilst I concur that the likely direction is down from here I would like to see 10425 convincingly breached first to confirm this. It is possible that the current trading range could remain in place for a couple more days until we see the factory and durable goods orders on Thursday and the non farm payrolls on Friday.

How do you see the Dax at the moment ? Did we both call it wrong on Thursday, since it went up a further 40 pts, or were we just premature ?

 

[kriesau]

The Dax just hit a 3 YEAR HIGH (well 35 months from July 02) at 4487 !!!!

Whats pushing this ahead of all of the other major indices ??

 

[ivorm]

The Dax just hit a 3 YEAR HIGH (well 35 months from July 02) at 4487 !!!!

Whats pushing this ahead of all of the other major indices ??

I suspect the markets think that the 'Non' vote in France and the probable 'No' vote in Holland today are ultimately good for the German economy. That's what's pushing the Dax up.

I think you may have been premature in going short on the Dax last week. The Elliott Wave count is still valid; a move down is on the cards but we should wait for price to show the reverse is in place.

Regards,

Ivor

 

[JFK]

Hi Everyone

I'm back from my hols. Have I missed much?

Ahh yes...Good consolidation between 10450 and 10550 for the past week and then yesterday a strong bear candle. Are we on the way down again? Well there is a strong level of support at 10450-460, so it will depend on whether this is breached and if the market closes below this today, then we could well see 10,300 again in the next week (possibly 10260 at a stretch).

Hi Jill,
I hope you had a good time?
I enjoyed your charts on the other threads. Can I ask what the NAS looks like?

Both the Dow & the S&P finish on their lows last night, but the NAS wasn’t so weak & as this is “Where’s the Dow & others heading”, I’m going to wait to see if the NAS is joining the party?

 

[JillyB]

Hi Jill,
I hope you had a good time?
I enjoyed your charts on the other threads. Can I ask what the NAS looks like?

Both the Dow & the S&P finish on their lows last night, but the NAS wasn’t so weak & as this is “Where’s the Dow & others heading”, I’m going to wait to see if the NAS is joining the party?

Hi there,

Sorry I have never traded the NAS, so I'm no expert on it. Perhaps one of the other contributors to this thread can step in and help on this one.

 

[rrtech]

Could someone explain the points system for the Dow comp. How do you get 10? I entered today and it seems like I can only get 3 points.

 

[Minder]

Could someone explain the points system for the Dow comp. How do you get 10? I entered today and it seems like I can only get 3 points.

Points are available dependant on the day you make your prediction, so Monday 5 points down to Friday 1 point. 3 points available to you, today being wednesday.

Bonus points available if the dow finishes the week close to your prediction.

Good luck

 

[senyorqueso]

Did something just happen?

 

[roguetrader]

Did something just happen?

Economic news release and a very nice move.

He he senyorqueso, you gonna need a newsfeed if you are gonna daytrade

 

[kriesau]

Economic news release and a very nice move.

He he senyorqueso, you gonna need a newsfeed if you are gonna daytrade

Was the manufacturing data good news ? It shows output at its lowest since June 2003 !
Oil is also up to $52.38.

 

[rrtech]

The Dow had been in a tight range for the last 6 days and yesterdays low finish gave the buyers a good opportunity and they've taken it. But 10568 on April the 1st is the highest mark since March 22nd despite being close to this on a number of occasions so will today break the trend?

You would be very brave to bet on it finishing above 10600 today especially as the data wasn't great. Manufacturing seems to be really struggling lately. However on the plus side a tight range often ends in a trend day so it could close up 150 points.

 

[User]

We still have resistance at last Mondays high.....

 

[roguetrader]

Was the manufacturing data good news ? It shows output at its lowest since June 2003 !
Oil is also up to $52.38.

To be honest kriesau I never actually pay that much attention to what the result is. In very short-term trading the only thing that matters is the markets perception / interpretation of the news. From my perspective I merely need to know when, as there will often be a reaction from there what I see in the market tells me what to think how to react

 

[roguetrader]

Big volume surge in total market volume accompanied that move up, to be fair and add balance I should also say that a big volume surge acompanied the late day move down yesterday also, and we may have simply have un-nerved some newly opened short-term short positions