Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[SOCRATES]

The best thing to do is not to panick......I entered shorts last week with 200 point stoploss and in fairness nothing much is happened to them.....

Infact I've added today....

This upside is great in terms of the wipeout of yesterdays losses but I'm just not convinced.....

Should be a very interesting close today.......

If we can give back some of the gains and close below last Mondays high or below 10550 then that'll good.....

The shorts are in play and with a 200 point stop loss.....so far we are just seeing movement.....

nothing more....

Has it occured to you that what you are in is a bull market ?
Even though there are intermittent falls, prices have been going up since Friday 13th May.

 

[User]

Socs carry on with your analysis.....if we're in a bull market then thats your call. This is a market we're trading in and obviously i'm on the other side for time being as my analysis is saying that the bull market has ended

prices have been going up since Friday 13th May.

Counter trend.....not a bull market....

The best thing to do is not to panick......I entered shorts last week with 200 point stoploss and in fairness nothing much is happened to them.....

Infact I've added today....

Hope you didnt panick then......decision to enter shorts again......worked out well.....

Some problems remain on the upside.....

 

[roguetrader]

ROFL NYSE closed 4 minutes early.

 

[roguetrader]

Hi roguetrader,

I think the sections I referred to are those of 25/5, 27/5 and 31/5, in which price moved down in heavy volume during the early part, then moved up in lighter volume later that day.

With today's actions so far, I wonder whether those down volume were big boys accumulating during a consolidation period. Many thanks.

Hi clylbw,
All those days are fairly light volume, the footprint of "big boys" (institutions I asume) as you call them is heavy volume, when institutions accumulate or distribute it is accompanied by high volume. Volume of less than the 50 or 60 day ma is generally considered to show a lack of institutional activity.
If you are talking specifically about futures volume then I don't know as I don't follow the futures

 

[hariab]

hey guys,
gota bad feelin that this market dont seem to be takin bad news too badly looking at futures..... be interesting to see what happens opening hour

 

[Racer]

hey guys,
gota bad feelin that this market dont seem to be takin bad news too badly looking at futures..... be interesting to see what happens opening hour

Yes and that is very scary!

 

[kriesau]

hey guys,
gota bad feelin that this market dont seem to be takin bad news too badly looking at futures..... be interesting to see what happens opening hour

?????????

What data are you looking at ?
My Futures datastream shows the Dow Cash Futures at 29 pts below yesterdays close as at 14.10 today

 

[Racer]

?????????

What data are you looking at ?
My Futures datastream shows the Dow Cash Futures at 29 pts below yesterdays close as at 14.10 today

Quite a bit of that was from last night/earlier and not the news at 13:30 though?

 

[bharia]

kriesau
sorry im looking at cmc inhouse dow futures (after hours) data

 

[Minder]

Jobless claims for w/e 28/05/05 350k against a consensus of 325k.

Report says temporary layoffs in the auto industry
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aQHc5G_r305s&refer=us

Thinking ahead, Non farm payroll figures due tomorrow, April NFP figures were 274,000 against a consensus of 160,000. The Bureau of Labour Statistics uses a computer model from the Current Employment Statistics survey to adjust the NFP figures. The Births/Deaths model predicts the effect of the establishment of new businesses and the closure of existing business on the employment figures. In April 05, the adjustment was 257,000. That is 257k new jobs were assumed to have been created by new businesses. Put it another way, there were only 17,000 jobs actually created.

http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

Put in context, the CES Births/Deaths model adjustments for Feb 05 were 100k, and Mar 05 were 179k.

This paragraph from the BLS website is probably the most significant.

The most significant potential drawback to this or any model-based approach is that time series modeling assumes a predictable continuation of historical patterns and relationships and therefore is likely to have some difficulty producing reliable estimates at economic turning points or during periods when there are sudden changes in trend. BLS will continue researching alternative model-based techniques for the net birth/death component; it is likely to remain as the most problematic part of the estimation process.

At some point the figures will correct. Tomorrow should be interesting.

 

[bharia]

is the market just waiting for the supplies data????? nothing is bringin this down!!! What time is the fuel data released??

 

[Racer]

Oil data 15:30 Weds, but changed cos of Monday holiday to today

 

[rrtech]

The productivity report showed increased inflationary pressures because the unit labour cost rose sharply so interest rates are more likely to rise. The market usually falls by about 100 points whenever rate rises are more likely so we could see a late day fall, especially if the oil price stays over $54 (july) Currently$54.80 and rising!!!

 

[bharia]

is it me or is the market just not listening to wats being released???

 

[neil]

is it me or is the market just not listening to wats being released???

Maybe it's already priced in !

 

[kriesau]

The productivity report showed increased inflationary pressures because the unit labour cost rose sharply so interest rates are more likely to rise. The market usually falls by about 100 points whenever rate rises are more likely so we could see a late day fall, especially if the oil price stays over $54 (july) Currently$54.80 and rising!!!

Is the news out on US May oil inventories ? I haven't seen anything yet.
Where did you get your oil prices from - on Bloomberg they are currently quoting $54.50 ?

 

[lemput]

crude jul 55.10 and looking good. going on that inflationary pressure you would have hoped to have seen a reaction in the bond market as a precursor to stocks falling, but it is muted. sep. future still at 113.90.

 

[rrtech]

Oil price quote

Is the news out on US May oil inventories ? I haven't seen anything yet.
Where did you get your oil prices from - on Bloomberg they are currently quoting $54.50 ?

Hi kriesau, I got the quote on the igindex.co.uk homepage and it is the July US Light crude contract and it is now just under $55

 

[rrtech]

Here are todays support and resistance levels using the pivot point system.

Daily pivot 10531 Resistance level1: 10604 Resistance level 2: 10659

Support Level 1: 10476 Support level 2: 10403

 

[kriesau]

Hi kriesau, I got the quote on the igindex.co.uk homepage and it is the July US Light crude contract and it is now just under $55

Thanks - I see oil July futures are now at $55.20 !