Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

They are extremely basic, and at first glance almost useless. However from Mar-Apr this year, due to various software issues, I did day trade YM using only their 5 min price/volume bar chart and had a surprisingly good time of it - the charts are very clear and fast.

Normally though I use AmiBroker, which now supports the IB backfill, which is great as there are now no datafeed, backfill or ongoing subscription fees - just the upfront cost of the software !

KenN
 
Tomorrow is not a public holiday in either Germany or France so I guess that the Dax and Cac40 exchanges will be operating normally. Can anyone confirm this ?
 
I should imagine they will be kriesau .. but if US is closed will they do a lot? I mean to say, apart from usual initial surge or plunge, they do little until 14:30 UK anyway.. apart from the 13:30 move!
 
Racer said:
I should imagine they will be kriesau .. but if US is closed will they do a lot? I mean to say, apart from usual initial surge or plunge, they do little until 14:30 UK anyway.. apart from the 13:30 move!

Well it will be interesting to see the market reaction to the French referendum.
The exit poll shows 55% voted 'Non' and Chirac has conceded defeat on the issue.
 
I had bought dollars before referendum + great to see the french government with egg on their faces... I am interested to see what the CAC/DAX do... DAX is still up at the 4450 area- still shorters out there?
 
Ok, new week, new month. To get the statistics out of the way, the Dow has risen in only three of the 13 post-election Junes since 1950. Personally I tend to view these types of statistics with some degree of suspicion, what better way to manipulate the public into acting in a particular manner, than to produce statistics like this, but there it is for what it's worth.

The week past was by and large a range trading consolidation week after the previous weeks sharp move up and ended near the highs of the range. The daily chart to me looks bullish, as does the weekly. Volume overall continues to contract. Economic data was perceived to be generally good, remember in the short term it's not the data itself that is important, but how the market perceives it.
The interesting thing for me last week was that on Tuesday we had an inside NR7, Wednesday we gapped down and initially sold off, a perfect opportunity for the bears to strut their stuff, instead we had another lackluster volume day with an afternoon rally to take us back into the middle of the days range. Previously a moment of weakness like this was being pounced upon by the sellers and we would go down significantly and on heavier volume. What that tells me is that neither bulls or bears are confident of direction anymore. This week brings a raft of economic data, so maybe this will help one side or the other take firm control.

I have noticed a lot of calls for a top here, and while I can't argue with the logic being used, low put / call ratios, low VIX etc, it makes me nervous, I like people to be talking about the next level up when I look for my tops. If you were following this thread in March when we moved up for the highs, while there were people talking about a top, there were also people talking about how much higher than 11,000 we might be going.

Ok levels for the coming week, short term trend is up, initiative with the bulls, so resistance first. Convergence of underside of longterm uptrend line and highs of a range from late March early April 10,569, following that we have 61.8% fib ret Mar highs to Apr lows at 10,608. I also have an upper channel line of the expanding range which converges with the 78.6 fib at 10,773.
Downside support, the lows of this range at 10,423, followed by the 200 day sma currently at 10,412 and the 50 day sma currently at 10,356.

One other thing that has occurred to me, and I will throw it out for some thought. A lot of rumour and speculation have been floating around about potential trouble in Hedge-fund land. Now whilst i appreciate that in the longterm the demise of any of these funds would likely have damaging implications for the market, in the shortterm they may not have an immediate negative impact. Since hedge-funds speculate on both sides of the market, (I am talking of those speculating in equities here) whose to say that the positions they have to unwind are not short positions?
 

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D998, yes I deliberately didn't make any comment on the Eurozone situationm because to be quite candid I really am not sure what and how all the implications will play out and in what timeframe. The implications of this discord will doubtless be far reaching and complex in the weeks and months ahead and no doubt how the market perceives these implications and rationalizes them for an appropriate stance even more complex. Way beyond my limited capacity.
I will leave such analysis to those with much better fundamental understanding, and incidently look forward to their observatins and speculatios.
 
Bush to hold a news conference at 10:45 EST (15:45 UK) on the economy etc etc

Will be covered live om Bloomberg radio if anyone is interested
 
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TRIN's unusually high early oon, though not much use early on I like to take note if they are at unusual levels

NYSE 1.89 Nas 1.37
 
Here is what happened on the last 3 consumer confidence days. UP or Down may be a few points out.

April 26th actual 97.7 WAS 103 Estimated 98 DOW down 91

March 29th actual 102.4 WAS 104.4 Estimated 101 DOW down 81

February 22nd actual 104 WAS 105.1 Estimated 98 DOW down 174!!!!
 
Historical

Total Present Expected
Month Index Index Index
May 05 102.2 116.7 92.5
Apr 05 97.5R 113.8R 86.7R
Mar 05 103.0 117.0 93.7
Feb 05 104.4 116.8 96.1
Jan 05 105.1 112.1 100.4
Dec 04 102.7 105.7 100.7
Nov 04 92.6 96.3 90.2
Oct 04 92.9 94.0 92.2
Sep 04 96.7 95.3 97.7
Aug 04 98.7 100.7 97.3
Jul 04 105.7 106.4 105.3
Jun 04 102.8 105.9 100.8
May 04 93.1 90.5 94.8
Apr 04 93.0 90.4 94.8
Mar 04 88.5 84.4 91.3
Feb 04 88.5 83.3 91.9
Jan 04 97.7 86.1 105.3
Dec 03 94.8 76.0 107.4
Nov 03 92.5 81.0 100.1
Oct 03 81.7 67.0 91.5
Sep 03 77.0 59.7 88.5
Aug 03 81.7 62.0 94.9
Jul 03 77.0 63.0 86.3
Jun 03 83.5 64.2 96.4
May 03 83.6 67.3 94.5
Apr 03 81.0 75.2 84.8
Mar 03 61.4 61.4 61.4
Feb 03 64.8 63.5 65.7
Jan 03 78.8 75.3 81.1
Dec 02 80.7 69.6 88.1
Nov 02 84.9 78.3 89.3
Oct 02 79.6 77.2 81.1
Sep 02 93.7 88.5 97.2
Aug 02 94.5 93.1 95.5
Jul 02 97.4 99.4 96.1
Jun 02 106.3 104.9 107.2
May 02 110.3 111.2 109.7
Apr 02 108.5 106.8 109.6
Mar 02 110.7 111.5 110.2
Feb 02 95.0 96.4 94.0
Jan 02 97.8 98.1 97.6
Dec 01 94.6 97.8 92.4
Nov 01 84.9 96.2 77.3
Oct 01 85.3 107.2 70.7
Sep 01 97.0 125.4 78.1
Aug 01 114.0 144.5 93.7
Jul 01 116.3 151.3 92.9
Jun 01 118.9 156.8 93.5
May 01 116.1 159.6 87.1
Apr 01 109.9 156.0 79.1
Mar 01 116.9 167.5 83.1
Feb 01 109.2 167.1 70.7
Jan 01 115.7 170.4 79.3
Dec 00 128.6 176.1 96.9
Nov 00 132.6 179.7 101.2
Oct 00 135.8 176.8 108.4
Sep 00 142.5 182.5 115.9
Aug 00 140.8 181.3 113.9
Jul 00 143.0 186.8 113.7
Jun 00 139.2 180.1 111.9
May 00 144.7 183.6 118.7
Apr 00 137.7 179.8 109.7
Mar 00 137.1 182.5 106.8
Feb 00 140.8 180.1 114.6
Jan 00 144.7 183.1 119.1
Dec 99 141.7 181.7 115.0
Nov 99 137.0 176.8 110.4
Oct 99 130.5 173.9 101.5
Sep 99 134.2 176.3 106.2
Aug 99 136.0 176.3 109.2
Jul 99 136.2 179.2 107.6
Jun 99 139.0 175.0 114.9
May 99 137.7 177.2 111.3
Apr 99 135.5 175.5 108.8
Mar 99 134.0 176.6 105.5
Feb 99 133.1 177.7 103.4
Jan 99 128.9 172.9 99.6
Dec 98 126.7 168.6 98.7
Nov 98 126.4 166.7 99.5
Oct 98 119.3 165.2 88.7
Sep 98 126.4 170.7 96.8
Aug 98 133.1 172.6 106.8
Jul 98 137.2 172.9 113.4
Jun 98 138.2 171.3 116.2
May 98 136.3 170.9 113.3
Apr 98 137.2 169.3 115.8
Mar 98 133.8 172.7 107.9
Feb 98 137.4 171.8 114.5
Jan 98 128.3 159.3 107.7
Dec 97 136.2 163.1 118.3
Nov 97 128.1 156.8 108.9
Oct 97 123.4 147.5 107.3
Sep 97 130.2 157.6 111.9
Aug 97 127.6 156.1 108.7
Jul 97 126.3 154.5 107.6
Jun 97 129.9 157.1 111.7
May 97 127.9 152.6 111.4
Apr 97 118.5 141.6 103.2
Mar 97 118.5 144.8 101.1
Feb 97 118.9 144.3 101.9
Jan 97 118.7 141.2 103.8
Dec 96 114.2 135.7 99.9
Nov 96 109.5 133.4 93.5
Oct 96 107.3 124.6 95.7
Sep 96 111.8 128.5 100.7
Aug 96 112.0 129.5 100.3
Jul 96 107.0 125.0 95.0
Jun 96 100.1 114.7 90.3
May 96 103.5 120.2 92.4
Apr 96 104.8 118.2 95.9
Mar 96 98.4 110.0 90.7
Feb 96 98.0 110.8 89.5
Jan 96 88.4 101.1 79.9
Dec 95 99.2 109.5 92.3
Nov 95 101.6 115.3 92.5
Oct 95 96.3 105.9 89.9
 
As of 11am EST (4pm UK) Internals remain bearish with Adv / dec on both markets negative though not terribly so, total volume remains light , only modestly ahead of Fridays pace which was the lightest of the year, still no conviction either way.
 
Minder said:
U.S. May Consumer Confidence Index Rises to 102.2 From 97.5
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=a8N.42Qav53c&refer=top_world_news


U.S. Chicago Purchasers Index Fell to 54.1 in May, lowest in two years
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=a7N3HRjbXl18&refer=top_world_news

And some of the detail of that not too good.

Briefing.com
The May Chicago PMI plunged to 54.1 - the lowest level since June 2003 - below expectations of 62.0 and an April read of 65.6... While any reading over 50% still indicates expansion, the fact that new orders tanked to 57.9 (from 70.1), production dropped to 56.0 (from 68.9) and employment fell to 54.7 (from 62.3)
 
roguetrader said:
Bush to hold a news conference at 10:45 EST (15:45 UK) on the economy etc etc

Will be covered live om Bloomberg radio if anyone is interested

What happened to Dubyas speech ?
Was he tounge-tied or did the media consider his views too inconsequential to report :cheesy:
 
Bush sets out his agenda for Congress By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Bush on Tuesday set out four priorities for Congress when it returns from a Memorial Day recess. Bush urged Congress to complete work on energy legislation before its August recess, pass the Central American Free Trade Agreement and to press ahead on Social Security reform. He also said Congress should hold its spending in line with the budget the White House submitted earlier this year. Bush also said Congress should vote to make his tax cuts permanent.

10:48am 05/31/05 BUSH SAYS WILL KEEP PRESSING FOR SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM

10:47am 05/31/05 BUSH SAYS CAFTA 'WILL KEEP JOBS IN AMERICA'

10:47am 05/31/05 BUSH CALLS ON CONGRESS TO PASS CAFTA PACT

10:45am 05/31/05 BUSH SAYS WANTS ENERGY BILL BEFORE AUGUST RECESS

10:45am 05/31/05 BUSH SEES HOPEFUL SIGNS FOR U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

10:45am 05/31/05 BUSH REPEATS CALL FOR CONGRESS TO PASS ENERGY
 
Given that the Dow failed to go over 10500 at 5:30 does that mean it is likely to finish under 10500 or not?
 
rrtech said:
Given that the Dow failed to go over 10500 at 5:30 does that mean it is likely to finish under 10500 or not?

Well it went over 10500 at 5.45pm.

Probably more relevant to look at whay happens after 7.00pm (2.00pm) when the traders return from lunch and also at 8.00pm since the last hour of trading usually brings the buyer & sellers back into focus :!:
 
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