Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

Lovely stuff. Glad I decided just to watch today and not panic into closing shorts.. that is exactly what they would have wanted!

A very good decision......glad for you mate....
 
I'm addicted to the markets.........just though I'd share this with people!

Anyway some interesting comments from Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co.

"They say in this business, 'If the market doesn't respond to good news, be careful,'"

He also added......

"If rates really go up here it sort of will put a damper on the housing market so what you gain in jobs you might offset with an easing of the housing boom," he added.

Yes job gains great....but looking to the future then rate rises are not good.......It is a good jobs number no doubt......but I think people sometimes don't understand a rate increasing enviroment is bad.......bad for peoples debt.....bad for stocks......bad for housing.....bad overall........
 
But frequently very good tor the market, to everybody's (well nearly everybody's ) bewilderment and frustration, since this ought to be in the hands of people who surely know what they are doing.
 
user said:
I'm addicted to the markets.........just though I'd share this with people!
.

So am I! Why do you think I chair a meeting once a month to talk about the markets for 6 hours!!!
 
Today, all the indexes swinged within a crucial area, and the big boys jumped into positions during the last 30 minutes. The quantities of some trades were truly extraordinary. :eek:

I will love to see what is going to happen next week, especially Monday. :)
 
GE to restate results

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050506/general_electric.html?.v=8

STAMFORD, Conn. (AP) -- General Electric Co. restated financial results for several years Friday, boosting earnings by $381 million from 2001 through the first quarter of 2005.
While federal regulators are informally investigating accounting issues related to the restatement, GE said that its revision was sparked by an internal audit.

GE said that during a regular audit staff review, it concluded that some of its derivatives don't qualify for hedge accounting. The company uses hedge accounting to protect financial services businesses from changes in interest and currency exchange rates.

The company said the $381 million non-cash restatement represents less than six-tenths of one percent of GE's earnings over this period. The restatement covers the years 2002 through 2004, certain financial information for the year 2001 and each quarter in 2003 and 2004.
 
My take as of todays action ...f w i w.... 370/400 is twice support area this year .......spike this week just into the 400....possibly taking out a few stops......todays action ( daily candle) doji long shadow.....could this be setting up for the reversal of recent up move !!.....the doji is in the correct place for it ........I guess mon/tues all will be revealed......so on balance I think shorts have it !


counter
 
Gen Re exec gets Wells notice from SEC, Berkshire says (BRKA, BRKB) By Alistair Barr
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Berkshire Hathaway said late Friday that a senior vice president at its General Re unit got a "Wells" notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 2 as part of the agency's investigations into so-called finite reinsurance. The notice stated that the SEC is considering filing civil lawsuits against the person for violating, or helping others violate, securities laws, Berkshire said in an SEC filing. Berkshire (BRKA) (BRKB) didn't identify the executive.
 
rrtech said:
Could friday's failure to break 10400 be because it was only 2 days after a big up day?

Friday could have been a strong upday especially after such good NFP results. However the Dow has spent 3 days in the 10300 - 400 range and it failed to breach strong resistance at 10400 on each of these days. On Wednesday the Bulls were supported by Kekorians tender offer for 5% of GM shares which pushed them up almost 20% in a single day. On Friday they were assisted by a 5% jump in Honeywell shares after a rumoured UTX bid. Despite this 10400 was still not breached.

To counterbalance this both GM and Ford bonds were downgraded to junk status by S & P. If they are similarly downgrade by Moodys and Fitch next week then watch out below.

The market is in flux and next week could be pivotal in determining its next major move. In order to go up it will have to convincingly breach 10400. At the moment it does not appear to know which way to turn. Good NFP figures seemed to be balanced out by concerns over inflation and rising oil prices (oil closed just under $51 having gone up by nearly $3 since Wednesday). Everyone knows that the Fed will keep on raising interest rates. The market is therefore jittery and apt to be swayed on a day to day basis by individual economic stats that are published or circumstances/news related to individual Dow stocks.

Nobody can predict what the next move will be. There seemed to be quite a lot of selling into strength, particularly over the past few days so my own opinion/view/orientation/feeling/belief/inclination fwiw is that there is a stronger chance of the market moving down than up. If it does than the key support of 10300 will have to be breached and then we should look at 10100 as the next support level.

I will certainly still be looking for some good short entry points.

As the virgin bride said to the groom "All will be revealed next week" :)
 
Joules MM1 said:
A last ditch effort for immortatlity? Hardly a young chippa chap. Would be an ironic market twist from the market place that in the final throws of along career to still teach an old dog a new trick ?

:arrowl: :| :arrowr:

Kekorian may be old but I don't think that he is an old fool. GM are in big trouble through their automotive business which posted a $1.3bn loss in the 1st Qtr. In contrast, GMAC (their auto financing and mortgage business) generated an income of $728m in the same period. If Kelorian could spin GMAC off from the automotive business he could either let it go bust or do a Rover and give it to the Unions and he would be left with a finance business worth a lot more than $31 per share in a sale to a syndication of VC's.

Can he do it - well that's the $64bn question - only time will tell but he obviously thinks that he can. It's his last ditch stab at immortality as the man who made a fortune out of GM before it went bust.
 
kriesau said:
Kekorian may be old but I don't think that he is an old fool. GM are in big trouble through their automotive business which posted a $1.3bn loss in the 1st Qtr. In contrast, GMAC (their auto financing and mortgage business) generated an income of $728m in the same period. If Kelorian could spin GMAC off from the automotive business he could either let it go bust or do a Rover and give it to the Unions and he would be left with a finance business worth a lot more than $31 per share in a sale to a syndication of VC's.

Can he do it - well that's the $64bn question - only time will tell but he obviously thinks that he can. It's his last ditch stab at immortality as the man who made a fortune out of GM before it went bust.

Picked up this idea on another site - does the move to junk status materially change the company (GM). If so, KK could walk away from the deal.

20% increase in the sp - just the job to offset the effect of the bond announcement.

Edit
BTW What is a doji gravestone ?
 
Last edited:
Minder said:
BTW What is a doji gravestone ?

A candlesrick that looks like an inverted T
The Gravestone Doji is formed when the open and the close occur at the low of the day. It is found occasionally at market bottoms, but it's forte is calling market tops. The name, Gravestone Doji, is derived by the formation of the signal looking like a gravestone.
 
Minder said:
Picked up this idea on another site - does the move to junk status materially change the company (GM). If so, KK could walk away from the deal.

20% increase in the sp - just the job to offset the effect of the bond announcement.

Edit
BTW What is a doji gravestone ?

Presumably he could withdraw his tender offer at any time prior to receiving a sufficent number of acceptances. However I would have thought that he had already anticipated that GM debt was about to be downgraded. Hard to believe that S & P's announcement, the following day after Kekorian went public with his offer, was entirely coincidental. GM stock closed on Friday still nearly $3 higher than it did on Tuesday, prior to Kekorians offer, which cushioned the impact of Thursdays downgrade - interesting huh !
 
roguetrader said:
A candlesrick that looks like an inverted T
The Gravestone Doji is formed when the open and the close occur at the low of the day. It is found occasionally at market bottoms, but it's forte is calling market tops. The name, Gravestone Doji, is derived by the formation of the signal looking like a gravestone.

Suitable description for the action on the dow friday ?
 
But he isn't going to actually buy GM though is he? He is only offering to buy a small 'in percent terms' stake
 
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