Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[User]

Doesn't it just pi** you off that these economies around the world have no mind of their own.....

I mean generally 'over time' they follow the US.......even the currencies don't react to its own countries data but react to the US dollar.....

Its annoying in the sense that these economies are so crippled!

Well follow all you like........the only long term direction you’re heading is down.....and some of them could even go down and out on the way..............

Its a one-sided market.....Wonder what will happen when China hits top spot......would everyone follow them.......probably not.....

 

[User]

Oh by the way I closed my shorts after the market close.....I would like to go long today....but I haven't really got time to trade.....I can't keep myself away though.....so if I decide to dive in with a long today I'll let you know.....target would be 10500....

 

[FetteredChinos]

still think 10750 will be hit this month lol...as per my posts from a few weeks ago.

intermediate i am bullish. looking for a double top circa 11,000 again, give or take 100 points, then down for the rest of the year..

 

[Racer]

NEW YORK, May 9 (Reuters) - A former employee of American International Group Inc. (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said executives at the insurance giant regularly made changes to the company's reserves to help meet earnings goals through much of the 1990s, according to a report in Monday's New York Times.

Although not made in every quarter, this type of manipulation was common at AIG and was made as recently as 2001, the ex-employee told the Times.

AIG often altered reserves

 

[User]

FC Double top possibility but have a look at the weekly charts.....actually I'll post one in a few minutes..........I see 10500-600 as targets and at 10700 it should max out.....

The story could be......the Dow will prop up 10500-600-700 accumulate all those longs and then investors will start to think.....yes :arrowu: 11,000's coming...............just as it came last time around............. :!: but :!: this time we're hitting 12,000 before we hit 11,000 that'll be the sentiment anyway! and then before you know it 10700 reversal into September where we'll probably be sitting below 10,000......and should touch 9800......

 

[FetteredChinos]

if we hit 9800-9400 this year, it looks like we could end up hitting the trendline support at circa 8500 soon after in 2006.. and from there we could be looking at the long of a lifetime well past all-time highs..

still. take each day as it comes

 

[User]

Dow chart attached in MS Word

Have a look might help you, then again it might not.

Newbies, newcomers, starters....have a look.....

Good luck

 

[FetteredChinos]

nice one..

measured move from the low of 9990 gives us an initial upside target of 10,615.

50% retraces ia 10490 (could be a useful short entry point)

depends how you want to play it really..

 

[User]

and from there we could be looking at the long of a lifetime well past all-time highs..

Serious.....what could fuel that? As 1999-2000 was dotcom boom....

I can't see the long case for the next three-five years....

Having said that who knows what tomorrow holds......Tomorrow? who knows what today holds.....

Situations change....

 

[Racer]

Dow at crucial point, lots of mas not looking good for bulls, big resistance at 10400.

Dow and mas

200d simple is at 10380

 

[User]

depends how you want to play it really..

Thats true FC....different time frames, different analysis different trades = market!

Thoses targets of yours seem realistic at this moment in time...

 

[kriesau]

Dow chart attached in MS Word

Have a look might help you, then again it might not.

Newbies, newcomers, starters....have a look.....

Good luck

Thanks for the chart - very interesting.

There seems to be a concensus that it is heading down to 10,000 or below this year.
However we seem to have two schools of thought in the short term.
You and FC are bullish short term, expecting a rise to 10500 and above with a retracement commencing at around 10700.
Racer (and myself to some extent) anticipate 10400 resistance as a problem for a breakout and expect the next move to be down to test support at 10300.
The jury is out - it'll be interesting to see where it goes this week.

 

[User]

The jury is out - it'll be interesting to see where it goes this week

Don't turn it into a competition.....! I always get it wrong

Thats my analysis anyway but you and Racer could be right......but having resistance at 10400 is too clean and easy if you know what I'm mean......What I mean is the Dow never makes it that easy.....

Heavy support 10400......then heavy support 10000 and now heavy resistance at 10400....yes maybe but thats too easy....

 

[FetteredChinos]

Serious.....what could fuel that? As 1999-2000 was dotcom boom....

I can't see the long case for the next three-five years....

Having said that who knows what tomorrow holds......Tomorrow? who knows what today holds.....

Situations change....

just that the recent action on the daily charts, from the 2000 highs, and the 2003 lows looks like a bit of an expanding triangle/bull flag.

it broke out of that late last year upon the election euphoria, and i would like to see a retest of the 11,000 region before we break down.

on the rough and ready chart i whizzed off in 2 mins (can you tell) ive marked a few lines.

short term i would like to see a test of the 11,000 region (trendline from all-time high to recent high). from there, a drop to the 9,000 region this year. then perhaps a continuation of the trend from there early next year into the 8500-8700 region (trendlines permitting) which is make or break for the market.

if 8500 doesnt hold, then the market is in the crap, and there is too much at stake for the world and his wife not to try to keep it above there..

a successful retest at this level would be a fairly low risk long, and could yield 4-5,000 points.

depends what happens over the coming months, and which trendlines get broken first..

a break above 11,000 convincingly could/will throw this out of the water, and we could be looking at 12,000 before the end of the year.

good job we play on a day-to-day basis eh?

fc

 

[Racer]

This week I think could be very significant for the markets. Depends on how scared the US is though whether they will allow it or try to push it through resistance to give them a bit more breathing space to think of more hot air words to keep the rose coloured glasses from frosting over

 

[FetteredChinos]

hmm.. coincidence? might see a pretty powerful reversal towards the end of today/after the close. depending on the slightly suspect drawing of the lines.

blue vertical line seems to suggest a coincidence of turning points...

 

[jonnyy40]

Harry wrote perhaps one sentence in his art exam.It's now claimed that his artwork was painted by the head of the art dept. - that's brilliant.

 

[FetteredChinos]

?

 

[User]

Harry wrote perhaps one sentence in his art exam.It's now claimed that his artwork was painted by the head of the art dept. - that's brilliant.

Does that mean lifes about not what you know but who you know :?:

 

[jonnyy40]

I think Harry and Blair should take lie detector tests.If it's not proven (accepted) that Blair lied,we'll get him back as the first President of Europe.