Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

[Racer]

Oviously a feeling that the drop yesterday afternoon was an over reaction to the CPI and the Beige Book. I'm also surprised that the futures have recovered so much - yesterdays fall was triggered by some quite heavy selling which does not suggest that we have bottomed out yet.

Very out of hours futures buying... still think it is very odd..
Got a few figures today though which will be an indication of direction, might have to close my shorts.. again!

 

[roguetrader]

Very out of hours futures buying... still think it is very odd..
Got a few figures today though which will be an indication of direction, might have to close my shorts.. again!

After hours earnings were generally positive, there was also some conference call related to the NYSE last night which I didn't listen to but may have thrown some sort of positive slant on things. Talking heads on the financial channels have been doing a lot of talking up the CPI data as a evidence that companies are able to pass on costs to the consumer thereby protecting earnings, of course nobody thought to mention that the consumer may not like costs being passed on and therefore buy less, but there ya go.. Also is a growing belief that despite the notable bombshells from the likes of IBM and GM, that earnings on the whole are not that bad. All good fun.

 

[Racer]

Yes and can they actually afford to pay more with all the debt they have and virtually no savings with interest rates going up?

 

[roguetrader]

Early pre-market action.
VRSN +12%
GOOG +1.1%
ERCY +3.4%
NOK +5.9%
AIG +1.7%
MOT +5.4%
EBAY +2.2%
IBM +0.7%
SMH +1.25%
QQQQ +1%

 

[FetteredChinos]

back from the pub, +70 banked to make +240 from 3 trades this week.



looks like a Gap and Run today chaps..

im sitting this one out today, but reckon my Dow Comp entry (10,083) might be about 120 points out this week..

10,200+ on friday anyone?

 

[roguetrader]

back from the pub, +70 banked to make +240 from 3 trades this week.



looks like a Gap and Run today chaps..

im sitting this one out today, but reckon my Dow Comp entry (10,083) might be about 120 points out this week..

10,200+ on friday anyone?

Nice work FC

 

[FetteredChinos]

thanks... doesnt always go according to plan though...

need to eliminate the crap -100 weeks out of the scheme of things and i will be laughing all the way to the asylum...

 

[Racer]

well done FC

 

[FetteredChinos]

you feeling better R?

or are trading from your deathbed today?

get well soon

x

 

[Racer]

Still too hot... will have to get a fan...........
Ah, open the computer.. got lots in that

 

[Racer]

Dax is too positive for me...

They are pushing this market up. I don't know what is going on here, so closed out so I watch it on the sidelines again
And if AIG and CAT move up then I will have to wait

 

[Minder]

Any opinions on this, it was posted in the April 20th Midas at LeMetropole. I have never studied this data before so I don't know if this is a particularly insightful piece of research, or the ramblings or a conspiracy theorist.

http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/PPTinAction.png

Here is my take on it.

Wouldn't institutions buying equities borrow more form the Fed window to fund their purchases?

If that is the case then the TIO data should reflect the spike in the middle of the Dow chart, it doesn't. The TIO data ramps up when the market was hitting critical support levels.

One spike in liquidity when the dow is rising, that spike showing the Fed repo in grey at the end of the chart.

That rise in the dow is smaller than the previous upleg in the middle of the chart, significantly there is no grey Fed repo action on the chart at this point.

Conclusion : Fed injects liquidity into the market at critical levels ?

 

[trendie]

SHORTed Dow 10,106.
Will close at EOD irrespective.

How high can it go, after opening up 80+ ??

 

[Racer]

How high can it go? As high as it wants!
Just cos it open up 90 or so, doesn't mean it can't go up another 90!

 

[Racer]

This move is too fishy to me... not trading this

 

[Slapshot]

Afternoon all,

I;ve been watching the DJ with interest over the past few weeks and thought it time to throw my two penneth worth into the mix.

Today appears to be a retracement of yesterdays cliff fall which may lead to the kind of trading action in a 200pt zone similar to what happened a couple of weeks back when it was between 10400-600.

Longer term I still believe were heading south but as we all know anything is possible. Certainly the action over the last couple of days has been a little strange.

Anyhow, good to be here and good luck to everyone today ;-)

 

[FetteredChinos]

if i were a gambling man, i would go long here 10,092 and hold for the rest of the day... stop in the 10,040 region.


little pullback almost completed.


not gonna go for it though.. 240points is enough this week.

FC

 

[Racer]

LOL and I want to short it... but I don't know know where it is going, rather weak considering it has fallen so much, would have expected a lot more buying if they were really serious. FTSE not convinced either

 

[Racer]

Hmm, have they made their minds up now? For up?

I dunno, don't think they do either! LOL

 

[FetteredChinos]

nah Racer.. its tomorrow that they are taking it sideways