What will HowardCohodas's month on month return be for March?

Howard's March Month on Month Return


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Well, a risk reversal does make money if you're right on direction, fo' shizzle. It's a bit too shall we say, turbo for me, 'cause normally when it goes wrong, it does so in style. I had a colleague who blew up and was fired on the spot one fine day because of some unfortunate risk reversals he had in USDJPY. Wasn't a good day for the guy, that's for sure.

If you held an underlying position (that, say, you were stuck with for one reason or another) couldn't you strap one of these on the top and try to earn a little premium while having a hard profit/loss profile? Are they used like that?

As it stands, just looks to me like instead of normal directional punt position you gain a little wiggle room in spot but pay for it in gamma.
 
Hey guys, I'm back to the computer. I just rode my bike 5miles to downtown and am working from a cafe
..So where we're we?

Yeah I am long Xag/usd from
$38.5086
$38.0595
$37.8805

Currently up +6%
 
The idea was to start trading options instead of the underlying contract, because it has huge moves versus the outright.
As far as the spread goes, I may just trade either a Call or a Put, so I can manage the down side better.

This may sound impossible, but going back to november of last year, I am 100% on picking the direction in Xag'xau for the week. Except for one week that I fcked up on my numbers over the weekend, but my excuse is I was hung over. I void that week, but even if you include that, I am at 89% on picking direction.
 
If you held an underlying position (that, say, you were stuck with for one reason or another) couldn't you strap one of these on the top and try to earn a little premium while having a hard profit/loss profile? Are they used like that?

As it stands, just looks to me like instead of normal directional punt position you gain a little wiggle room in spot but pay for it in gamma.
Well, what do you get if you're long/short the underlying, short/long OTM calls and long/short OTM puts?
 
Howard, I have no desire to participate in your other private thread, but I have read your latest commentary. I have to say that, IMHO, you're missing the point again.
 
Howard, I have no desire to participate in your other private thread, but I have read your latest commentary. I have to say that, IMHO, you're missing the point again.
I wish you would explain it to me, because I'm obviously having trouble understanding the point I'm missing. I'm really not trying to be obtuse, but I think one thread as a place to describe my strategy and to place competent (not based on false premises) criticism of it without the trash and the lulz, has merit.

As I have time, I will try to find candidates from the trashed threads to place into the private thread. If you have candidates to recommend, I will either place them there or explain why I disagree.
 
I wish you would explain it to me, because I'm obviously having trouble understanding the point I'm missing. I'm really not trying to be obtuse, but I think one thread as a place to describe my strategy and to place competent (not based on false premises) criticism of it without the trash and the lulz, has merit.

As I have time, I will try to find candidates from the trashed threads to place into the private thread. If you have candidates to recommend, I will either place them there or explain why I disagree.
It's simple... You suggest that your issue is that you didn't have enough cash to buy back the spreads that blew through your stop. The problem, in your view, is that you haven't been building up your cash rapidly enough, which means that your solution is that you should be selling more spreads, collecting more premium, taking more risk. Do you see a problem with this? Or maybe I misunderstand?
 
Now I'll pull my arms out with my face!
 

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It's simple... You suggest that your issue is that you didn't have enough cash to buy back the spreads that blew through your stop. The problem, in your view, is that you haven't been building up your cash rapidly enough, which means that your solution is that you should be selling more spreads, collecting more premium, taking more risk. Do you see a problem with this? Or maybe I misunderstand?
I was building up my cash reserves by selling fewer spreads as expiration dates came and I entered a new series. What I should have done was liquidate some of the spreads to build cash rather than wait for series to expire. This is what I ended up doing in my attempt to rescue my losing spreads from further loss. It took too long and I lost more than planned. I could have added cash from another account, but the purest in me wanted this account to represent both success and folly. Sometimes being a purest has real consequences and costs real money. Helps cement the lesson in memory in ways more difficult to ignore.

Also, I did not have an analytic model of how much cash reserve I should maintain in this account. Now I do and the allocation I described in my limited-posting thread reflects that. Given the granularity of the difference in strikes, I wrote an algorithm that proposes the number of spreads in each category based on the cash value of the account. It was fun, (got to work with integer solutions and multiple equations and constraints) and it now helps me plan better.
 
You remind me of one these people who trades using martingale position sizing. They design a system on the premis that they'll never experience say 6 consecutive losers. After 7 consecutive losers and a blown account they bounce back with a redesigned money management strategy based on never experiencing more than 7 consecutive losers.

The fundemental problem is you dont have an edge.
 
Explain your contention (that I don't have an edge) in light of my results so that I can understand.

Because, for the gazillionth time, you haven't explained why the options are systemically mispriced.

You appear to believe your edge comes from your risk mitigation strategy... sorry, but that cannot be...
 
Howard , let me give you a lesson on trading options Son. First off, you have to have an idea of where the market is going and know what the heck you're doing..

Buying slv spread call-put
April 15 2001 Exp.

37c 1.15- 35p 0.16
Paying 0.99
:whistling
Still holding this bad boy :)
 
I was building up my cash reserves by selling fewer spreads as expiration dates came and I entered a new series. What I should have done was liquidate some of the spreads to build cash rather than wait for series to expire. This is what I ended up doing in my attempt to rescue my losing spreads from further loss. It took too long and I lost more than planned. I could have added cash from another account, but the purest in me wanted this account to represent both success and folly. Sometimes being a purest has real consequences and costs real money. Helps cement the lesson in memory in ways more difficult to ignore.
This doesn't make sense. How can you build up cash reserves by liquidating some of the spreads, if you've lost money on them? You still don't understand. Your portfolio is short vol and has some directional exposure. In a relatively mild recent panic you got chopped, which is entirely natural. Your response to that is, basically, to do more of the same.
Also, I did not have an analytic model of how much cash reserve I should maintain in this account. Now I do and the allocation I described in my limited-posting thread reflects that. Given the granularity of the difference in strikes, I wrote an algorithm that proposes the number of spreads in each category based on the cash value of the account. It was fun, (got to work with integer solutions and multiple equations and constraints) and it now helps me plan better.
Yes, models are great, but only if they distil and summarize a common sense approach. Your solution to address the drawdown that you have just experienced is, effectively, to increase your tolerance for mark-to-mkt losses. Now I am all for that, generally, but in your case this is just plain suicidal.

Again, because you keep talking in generalities, do you want to go through a specific trade?
 
Martin, I think he means he just needed a bit of cash to liquidate/buyback his spreads. He realized implied volatility is no longer the same and thus, wanted to cover his losses quickly.
 
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