Watch HowardCohodas Trade Index Options Credit Spreads

[HowardCohodas]

but howard this is where you have got the total wrong end of the stick.

probability of reaching / probability of touching IS NOT a metric of future volatility. it is just a sum that is done on the current IV, time to maturity, spot and strike and stuff.

forecasting volatility is a different kettle of fish all together mate, and thats what you need to do in order to get an idea of where the steamroller is.

You don't agree with me that PoT plus price predicts volatility. How would you predict volatility? Don't just tell everyone reading this that I have it wrong. Make a case for your position.

 

[DashRiprock]

You don't agree with me that PoT plus price predicts volatility. How would you predict volatility? Don't just tell everyone reading this that I have it wrong. Make a case for your position.

"How would you predict volatility?"

is the $1mm question.

that you cant answer, yet.

by the way. neither can I. but, like, look at a vol arb book like this one and then say honestly to yourself "am i the sharp end of the sword?"

 

[HowardCohodas]

Now look what you've done. You've pissed off meanreversion with you subpar use of "your" in lieu of "you're".

Anyways, thought experiments are fine and dandy, but you have to be rational about choosing which notions are worthwhile to experiment with and which are a total waste of time. The absurd idea that the mkt somehow knows your position and is seeking to cause you pain and suffering falls into the latter category. Indeed, if you're doing that, why not think about aliens from Mars controlling the mkt? My point here is that this is yet another bit of evidence that suggests to me that you're woefully ill-equipped to teach people to trade. You have so little experience with the mkt and its structure that you're not able to filter viable signal out of the noise. That, in itself, isn't a bad thing, since it comes with experience, but please, I beg you, reconsider the whole teaching bollox. Trade a bit more, get a better idea of what you're actually doing and how the mkt works, then reassess. Personally, I only got it after arnd 5 years. You're a smart guy, it won't take you that long, so please just exercise a bit of patience. Trust me, you won't regret it.

Did you miss the following two facts. 1) I agree with what I highlighted in red. 2) I did not introduce that line of reasoning. I just ran with what someone else started. Do you not believe in reductio ad absurdum?

Your post is misleading people in what I believe. Even if you forgot those facts, your post is nonetheless over the top. A good teacher tunes into his student's learning style rather than insist the student conforms to the teacher's teaching style. I have tried several strategies for getting my thoughts across. I continue to try different methods on the odd chance one will connect. How about you?

The fact that we have different models of the market is worth exploring. Those who deal with models, like many who study options, know that different models offer different perspectives of the same domain. Many defenders of one model may attack the other as wrong, when the fact is that each may be useful for a particular purpose. I'm certain you are familiar with the options pricing model wars.

Is your estimate of my readiness to teach scored on an absolute scale or on the curve. If on the curve, you have not done the competitive analysis I have. If an absolute scale, then don't you see that I might believe it problematic?

 

[HowardCohodas]

"How would you predict volatility?"

is the $1mm question.

that you cant answer, yet.

by the way. neither can I. but, like, look at a vol arb book like this one and then say honestly to yourself "am i the sharp end of the sword?"

There is no amount of dialog, or competing monologues that will resolve this to the extent that the other will agree. The only potential resolution is if I survive continuous spikes in volatility and a black swan event and several months of high volatility. And even then, I suspect that there are some who will say that there is some other environmental variable that has yet to be experienced so I will surely blow up in that event.

And so it goes.

 

[DashRiprock]

There is no amount of dialog, or competing monologues that will resolve this to the extent that the other will agree. The only potential resolution is if I survive continuous spikes in volatility and a black swan event and several months of high volatility. And even then, I suspect that there are some who will say that there is some other environmental variable that has yet to be experienced so I will surely blow up in that event.

And so it goes.

Or, you could just trot out rhetoric because it has been comprehensively explained to you that you have a directional exposure to volatility yet you have no clue about how to take a view on it.

 

[DashRiprock]

Or, you could just trot out rhetoric because it has been comprehensively explained to you that you have a directional exposure to volatility yet you have no clue about how to take a view on it.

^^^^money shot of thread i bet

 

[HowardCohodas]

Or, you could just trot out rhetoric because it has been comprehensively explained to you that you have a directional exposure to volatility yet you have no clue about how to take a view on it.

We disagree. The market will arbitrate our dispute.

Is that sufficiently rhetoric free for you?

 

[HowardCohodas]

^^^^money shot of thread i bet

Wow. Even I don't have the arrogance to be so self-congratulatory.

 

[DashRiprock]

Or, you could just trot out rhetoric because it has been comprehensively explained to you that you have a directional exposure to volatility yet you have no clue about how to take a view on it.

in reply to all of howards above

read this post, its bang on the money.

 

[HowardCohodas]

in reply to all of howards above

read this post, its bang on the money.

Isn't your arm getting mighty sore?

Reminds me of another flying maxim. You cannot propel yourself forward by patting yourself on the back.

 

[scose-no-doubt]

Personally, I only got it after arnd 5 years.

I suddenly feel a lot better lol.

 

[Martinghoul]

Did you miss the following two facts. 1) I agree with what I highlighted in red. 2) I did not introduce that line of reasoning. I just ran with what someone else started. Do you not believe in reductio ad absurdum?

Not when it's a waste of time... Again, why not think this way about the extra-terrestrials in the mkt?

Your post is misleading people in what I believe. Even if you forgot those facts, your post is nonetheless over the top. A good teacher tunes into his student's learning style rather than insist the student conforms to the teacher's teaching style. I have tried several strategies for getting my thoughts across. I continue to try different methods on the odd chance one will connect. How about you?

I am not sure what this has to do with anything, tbh. I am also not sure how I could have misled anyone about your beliefs. If you read what I wrote carefully, you would have seen that nowhere did I suggest that you believe in the theory in question. All I said was that your thought experiment is a waste of time and a sign of poor filtering capability.

The fact that we have different models of the market is worth exploring. Those who deal with models, like many who study options, know that different models offer different perspectives of the same domain. Many defenders of one model may attack the other as wrong, when the fact is that each may be useful for a particular purpose. I'm certain you are familiar with the options pricing model wars.

I am familiar with all sorts of things. However, Howard, the problem isn't that we have different models of the mkt. All models (incl option-pricing ones) have some fundamental principles in common. The problem is that I have achieved a modicum of understanding of these fundamental principles and you haven't. Again, pls don't take offense, as this is just a matter of experience. You're an engineer, you're smart and you're approaching things the right way, so you'll inevitably gain all the necessary experience and understanding. However, you shouldn't be teaching anyone anything.

Is your estimate of my readiness to teach scored on an absolute scale or on the curve. If on the curve, you have not done the competitive analysis I have. If an absolute scale, then don't you see that I might believe it problematic?

Howard, you talking loco... Are you suggesting that your aspiration is to be a wee better than a large bunch of crooks, charlatans and deluded sh1theads? Why would one even think about any sort of relative scale in this particular context?

 

[HowardCohodas]

Howard, you talking loco... Are you suggesting that your aspiration is to be a wee better than a large bunch of crooks, charlatans and deluded sh1theads? Why would one even think about any sort of relative scale in this particular context?

Just like a competent political poll, we will assume I have adjusted for the crooks, charlatans and deluded sh1theads. I'm speaking of players who have been around for awhile, have no SEC charges against them and do not have an unusual number of complaints.

I try, in life, to give the other guy the benefit of the doubt. If there are two ways of interpreting something and one is negative and the other is not, I go with the latter until presented with incontrovertible evidence that the benefit was unjustified.

I am unhappy with myself that I seem to be straying from this policy when engaging in the heat of frequent forum posts.

I wish some others were equally unhappy with themselves.

 

[robster970]

If I were to summarise what I think is going on and to use Rumsfeld terminology:

a) Howard has a lot of 'Unknown unknowns' due to experience in market

b) Martinghoul and other participants are trying to turn some of the 'unknown unknowns' into 'known unknowns' but HC is reluctant to accept the existence of them because of an over-reliance on empiricism which led to the construction of his market model & associated strat.

c) When market structure is probed, HC refuses to accept that more knowledge about market structure is required because of over-reliance on empirically derived model which worked well under test conditions.

d) This will continue until as Howard states, the market will prove him wrong at which point some of his 'unknown unknowns' will become known.

I think the thread will probably continue like this ad infinitum.

 

[Martinghoul]

Just like a competent political poll, we will assume I have adjusted for the crooks, charlatans and deluded sh1theads. I'm speaking of players who have been around for awhile, have no SEC charges against them and do not have an unusual number of complaints.

I try, in life, to give the other guy the benefit of the doubt. If there are two ways of interpreting something and one is negative and the other is not, I go with the latter until presented with incontrovertible evidence that the benefit was unjustified.

I am unhappy with myself that I seem to be straying from this policy when engaging in the heat of frequent forum posts.

I wish some others were equally unhappy with themselves.

Yes, you're a nice guy, Howard. Hence, I am happy to to have these discussions with you and, as you may have noticed, I always stress that I am not trying to insult or demean.

However, I am not sure what else I can say to try to convince you that you're just not qualified to educate anyone at this particular juncture. If you don't wanna listen, so be it. May the Schwartz be with you!

I think the thread will probably continue like this ad infinitum.

Quite an accurate summation, robster... As far as I am concerned, "ad infinitum" is upon us.

 

[HowardCohodas]

Howard is an American Jew of certain age. Therefore 500-1 on he only has half a d1ck.

I was standing at a urinal in London next to a guy who identified himself as an American. He looks at me and said "You were born in Cleveland, weren't you?" I said "Yes, how did you know that?" He said, "You were circumcised by Rabbi Cohen, weren't you?" I said, "Yes. He was a friend of the family. How did you know that?" "Because Rabbi Cohen always cuts on a bias and your peeing on my shoe."

 

[DashRiprock]

I was having a wee once at the gents in waterloo station. Next to me was a guy who said he was american and how he loved that in england everything is so old. i said "DONT FECKIN TALK TO ME IM HAVIN A WEE!"

 

[HowardCohodas]

I think the thread will probably continue like this ad infinitum.

Let me summarize in my terms. This will only end with my unconditional surrender or my account's death.

It matters not to most here what market circumstances I survive. There will always be something else, obscure or not, that I have not lived through. By this standard, I will never have sufficient experience to teach.

Not only ad infinitum, but ad nauseum as well.

So what are the odds I will unconditionally surrender?

What are the odds my account will die?

What are the odds I will ever have enough experience to teach?

 

[HowardCohodas]

I was having a wee once at the gents in waterloo station. Next to me was a guy who said he was american and how he loved that in england everything is so old. i said "DONT FECKIN TALK TO ME IM HAVIN A WEE!"

Somehow I doubt that in person you would get away with the level of rudeness you show here if he were a proper Yank.

 

[Pazienza]

How do you come up with this cr@p? "Oh poor me, they'll always say I don't have enough experience to teach. Boo hoo!".

People are saying that you can't teach because you have very little experience and because it is clear that you haven't got a clue what you're talking about.

It might also be highly suspect that you wanted to teach from the moment you started trading, but we'll leave that aside for now.

But don't misrepresent what others have said. Saying that your few months in the market is not enough is not the same as saying you will never have enough experience.

Let me summarize in my terms. This will only end with my unconditional surrender or my account's death.

It matters not to most here what market circumstances I survive. There will always be something else, obscure or not, that I have not lived through. By this standard, I will never have sufficient experience to teach.

Not only ad infinitum, but ad nauseum as well.

So what are the odds I will unconditionally surrender?

What are the odds my account will die?

What are the odds I will ever have enough experience to teach?