Watch HowardCohodas Trade Index Options Credit Spreads

[arabianights]

Google his name - this thread is the first result that comes up. No-one in their right mind is going to be interested in his course or his highly dubious "results" (these are expressed as a percentage of the loose change down the back of his sofa I think).

You have far too much faith in lurkers. Indeed the length of it is going to be a draw to them

 

[HowardCohodas]

woohoo $229.80 what a lot of money congrats

I've paid considerably more than that in commission today if you really care, and it's been a really really dull day...

Then your commissions for today exceed my Forex account balance. Good on you.

 

[Pazienza]

woohoo $229.80 what a lot of money congrats

I've paid considerably more than that in commission today if you really care, and it's been a really really dull day...

You've paid how much in commission today? That's terrible!

Try these guys, there's no commission so you can trade for free :

http://www.finspreads.com/

 

[Martinghoul]

Since my education in the markets leads me to not accept your premise, there is no way to answer that question.

The "market" (the aggregation of all buyers and sellers) may be on the "other side" of my trade, but the "market" is not a thinking entity. It is a collection of thinking entities all with different goals who collectively take the other side of every transaction. I am not a believer that the market is a zero-sum game. Transactions can be win/win if each side meets is specific goal.

Here we go again, Howard... Firstly, as I have told you a number of times, your education in the mkts has been blissfully short and sweet. Pray it remains that way (I mean sweet, of course).

You're stating that the mkt is systematically overpricing spreads that you're selling and that you, among all the mkt participants, have discovered one of the "correct" ways of pricing these instruments.

While this IS causing me considerable concern (actually, just kiddin'; it doesn't), let me try to offer you a bit of food for thought. Ask yourself this simple question: is the mkt zero-sum at expiry? Once you have the answer, you may want to look into binomial tree (or lattice) option pricing.

 

[Pazienza]

It's a good thing the markets are quiet today. I've been shirking my other responsibilities with this. I suck at Forex trading. So I only play with really small money. But while I have been at this thread I have booked $229.80 in profits. Best day in a long time. Is it the markets, my trading skill or the energy from this thread. Oh, but I already told you I suck at Forex trading. I don't know how the energy from responding to this thread could be the cause. Must be the markets just like me today.

woohoo $229.80 what a lot of money congrats

I've paid considerably more than that in commission today if you really care, and it's been a really really dull day...

Then your commissions for today exceed my Forex account balance. Good on you.

Hold on a second Howie.

You said you booked $229.80 in profits from forex trading today.

Arabian said he spent "considerably more" than that in commissions today. Considerably could be anything from, say, $500.

You then congratulate him and say that he has made more today than you have in your forex account.

Something a little fishy there, unless you're saying that you made something like 40 - 50% today. Which you might do, since you express profits as a percentage of the cost of half a pint of mild in a Tamworth pub.

Actually, I could see you trying to wriggle out of this by saying that you keep very little in your actual account, and the rest in reserve somewhere. Don't try this - you wouldn't congratulate someone on this basis, so you were clearly talking about the overall amount you can devote to forex trading.

 

[arabianights]

While this IS causing me considerable concern (actually, just kiddin'; it doesn't), let me try to offer you a bit of food for thought. Ask yourself this simple question: is the mkt zero-sum at expiry? Once you have the answer, you may want to look into binomial tree (or lattice) option pricing.

I think that's beautiful mr ghoul, if you don't mind me sticking my tongue up there. Sweet and succinct but should get the old neurons going in a chap of Howard's (alleged) intellect...

 

[arabianights]

Hold on a second Howie.

You said you booked $229.80 in profits from forex trading today.

Arabian said he spent "considerably more" than that in commissions today. Considerably could be anything from, say, $500.

You then congratulate him and say that he has made more today than you have in your forex account.

Something a little fishy there, unless you're saying that you made something like 40 - 50% today. Which you might do, since you express profits as a percentage of the cost of half a pint of mild in a Tamworth pub.

More than that... it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever! He's made less profit than the current balance of his forex account, meaning either he's withdrawn the profit (why?)... or he had a negative balance to start with and his broker is criminally incompetent.

 

[Pazienza]

More than that... it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever! He's made less profit than the current balance of his forex account, meaning either he's withdrawn the profit (why?)... or he had a negative balance to start with and his broker is criminally incompetent.

Just another one of Howie's statements that concerns me. Well, I'm like everyone else, it doesn't actually concern me, but...anyway, you know what I mean.

 

[Martinghoul]

I think that's beautiful mr ghoul, if you don't mind me sticking my tongue up there. Sweet and succinct but should get the old neurons going in a chap of Howard's (alleged) intellect...

Thank you, cap'n... I was actually quite proud of the first passage myself. I thought it was pretty snappy, personally.

Thing is, I actually think Howard isn't a bad sort. He's extremely stubborn and he will probably blow up, but he's reasonably analytical about it. What I don't like is the arrogance that somehow allows him to impart his wisdom to the unenlightened masses.

 

[Pazienza]

Thank you, cap'n... I was actually quite proud of the first passage myself. I thought it was pretty snappy, personally.

Thing is, I actually think Howard isn't a bad sort. He's extremely stubborn and he will probably blow up, but he's reasonably analytical about it. What I don't like is the arrogance that somehow allows him to impart his wisdom to the unenlightened masses.

I'm not sure it is arrogance, to be fair to Howie. I think I would like him in real life, and this latest round of lulz and Howie shredding started after he mis-interpreted a complimentary comment of mine about his recent interview.

No, I don't think his bizarre behaviour and inability to see the truth is down to arrogance, I think it stems from delusion born of desperation. He desperately needs this to succeed (for, I suspect, financial and non-financial reasons) and so cannot bear anything that threatens his pipe-dream.

You see similar behaviour in noobs when you try to warn them about a boiler room or a system vendor. They want to believe so badly they lose the capacity for rational thought.

 

[HowardCohodas]

Here we go again, Howard... Firstly, as I have told you a number of times, your education in the mkts has been blissfully short and sweet. Pray it remains that way (I mean sweet, of course).

You're stating that the mkt is systematically overpricing spreads that you're selling and that you, among all the mkt participants, have discovered one of the "correct" ways of pricing these instruments.

While this IS causing me considerable concern (actually, just kiddin'; it doesn't), let me try to offer you a bit of food for thought. Ask yourself this simple question: is the mkt zero-sum at expiry? Once you have the answer, you may want to look into binomial tree (or lattice) option pricing.

I do not see how you could come to that conclusion from what I said. The best you can conclude is that my strategy is based on the thesis that spreads (not necessarily both legs) are overpriced with respect to a particular strategy. For a different strategy, the legs (not necessarily the spread) may be fairly priced or underpriced. My only contribution to the entry element of my strategy is the method of estimating the probability I will have to close the spread rather than let it expire. My more significant contributions are my management methods.

This "concept" of the options market may not be your understanding, but it seems to work for me.

The sciences do not try to explain, they hardly even try to interpret, they mainly make models. By a model is meant a mathematical construct which, with the addition of certain verbal interpretations, describes observed phenomena. The justification of such a mathematical construct is solely and precisely that it is expected to work.

 

[Pazienza]

Purely as an interview, I think you came across OK actually.

I'm not a fan of the overall concept of what you're doing, although that isn't the question here.

A very good post, in which you highlight one of the very serious concerns that potential students must have. Can he teach so soon, and also why would he if he is first and foremost a trader and not just another failure hoping to make a living teaching others to do what he can't?

Those are the posts I made - he threw a benny at the second one, wittering about me "mischarecterizing" his motives or some such nonsense, when in reality I was just giving him a heads up about some questions intelligent potential students might have.

His response indicated that he wasn't even capable of reading what I wrote, since he clearly placed a completely false meaning upon my words.

It is as though he sees something that might be considered slightly negative, and he slams on his idiot goggles, jumps into the Truck of Foolishness, and stomps on the accelerator.

 

[arabianights]

I suspect he's reasonably well off financially if he did alright with his LZW-avoiding GIF patent. I was a pre-pubescent at the time but I'm well aware how important that was (not his patent specifically, I've never heard of it... but how important the patent was; it's the major reason PNG was invented and unisys were kinda the SCO of their day [and I use SCO cause I can't think of a completely up to date parallel]...)

As for non financial reasons for wanting success, couldn't say.

 

[Pazienza]

Originally Posted by Johann Von Neumann
The sciences do not try to explain, they hardly even try to interpret, they mainly make models. By a model is meant a mathematical construct which, with the addition of certain verbal interpretations, describes observed phenomena. The justification of such a mathematical construct is solely and precisely that it is expected to work.

Nice quote. Unfortunately, we all know how effective models are. Global warming anyone?



Those models are about as much use as paying a hag to stir frogs, eyeballs and bones around in her cauldron to divine the future .

 

[arabianights]

I do not see how you could come to that conclusion from what I said. The best you can conclude is that my strategy is based on the thesis that spreads (not necessarily both legs) are overpriced with respect to a particular strategy. For a different strategy, the legs (not necessarily the spread) may be fairly priced or underpriced. My only contribution to the entry element of my strategy is the method of estimating the probability I will have to close the spread rather than let it expire. My more significant contributions are my management methods.

This "concept" of the options market may not be your understanding, but it seems to work for me.

aghggghghghghghgghghghghghghhgghghghghghghhhghghghghg

look, the pricing for the individual legs is based on the same model as the totality.... can one leg be severely mispriced? yes, but what will happen is the entire market will adjust to a tiny mispricing and ultimately (tiny oversimplification here) through the work of surface traders and other arb'ers that means nothing more than the market will adjust to be correctly priced for the greeks; it will just be that the greeks are not a fair representation of the future.

So for you to have an edge you need to know why they are not! And believe me there are enough participants who can do five (!) years of backtesting and see that they are wrong, if they really are...

 

[Pazienza]

I suspect he's reasonably well off financially if he did alright with his LZW-avoiding GIF patent. I was a pre-pubescent at the time but I'm well aware how important that was (not his patent specifically, I've never heard of it... but how important the patent was; it's the major reason PNG was invented and unisys were kinda the SCO of their day [and I use SCO cause I can't think of a completely up to date parallel]...)

Maybe, but I wonder. If you look at his treaddesk, or whatever it is, advert he's described as "soon hoping to be a travel agent" amongst a lot of other things. Strange for a well-off man past retirement age.

Maybe he didn't do so well out of his patent (most people don't you know, although the companies they work for often do) or maybe he blew all the money on rent-monkeys.

Whatever the reason, I think Howie needs the dough.

 

[HowardCohodas]

More than that... it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever! He's made less profit than the current balance of his forex account, meaning either he's withdrawn the profit (why?)... or he had a negative balance to start with and his broker is criminally incompetent.

$500 was PZs number not mine. I did not reveal my estimate in the post, so your speculations are way off on a tangent based on what he said, not what I said. If there is a proper reward, I will reveal my account size. It's a real money trading account not paper money trading.

And I've had time to enter another Forex trade. Only up $18.30 though. Laugh all you want, but I consider that good for my Forex record to date.

 

[arabianights]

Maybe, but I wonder. If you look at his treaddesk, or whatever it is, advert he's described as "soon hoping to be a travel agent" amongst a lot of other things. Strange for a well-off man past retirement age.

Maybe he didn't do so well out of his patent (most people don't you know, although the companies they work for often do) or maybe he blew all the money on rent-monkeys.

Whatever the reason, I think Howie needs the dough.

On the other hand, why describe yourself as a wannabe travel agent? I think he's at least semi autistic and doesn't really care about how he looks*. This also explains some peculiar mannerisms. In which case I have to salute him as a kindred spirit

For god's sake, this is a man who owns at least one THREE LETTER DOMAIN NAME FFS (dkt.com) which is worth enough...

*This hypothesis also explains a considerable amount of communication difficulties on both sides too

 

[HowardCohodas]

Originally Posted by Johann Von Neumann
The sciences do not try to explain, they hardly even try to interpret, they mainly make models. By a model is meant a mathematical construct which, with the addition of certain verbal interpretations, describes observed phenomena. The justification of such a mathematical construct is solely and precisely that it is expected to work.

Nice quote. Unfortunately, we all know how effective models are. Global warming anyone?



Those models are about as much use as paying a hag to stir frogs, eyeballs and bones around in her cauldron to divine the future .

Finally, a post of yours that did not, at least at first, cause a gag response. It is an outlier in my model of you, but outliers are permitted in most model that work.

However von Neumann, smarter than most here will ever be, including me, was describing models that work and you are not. Global warming, global cooling, global change, or whatever the flavor of the day is, cannot in any non-political sense be construed as models that work.

 

[TheBramble]

*This hypothesis also explains a considerable amount of communication difficulties on both sides too

So what are you saying?