Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

[Dentalfloss]

a lower size box.shows the 865 res area well.been retested a couple of times,could be retested next week.a close above 876 will break that.
the mother of all resistance areas is looming after at 900.the real big mother at 1000

 

[Dentalfloss]

goldman sachs have hired a law firm to shut down this blogger"s site
here is the link
Facts About Goldman Sachs

a good read
speculation is that goldman are going to have a share sale for several billion to pay down a government loan

 

[Dentalfloss]

morning ws and all other veiwers
one more chart.it is of the dow.another high box size with close data.3 box reversal
200 point box size by 3 reversal.there is a huge res area at 8800.note purple line.
this is 9% away from friday close.whereas,in the s500,the massive res area was at 900 area ie 5% away from the friday close.
s500 should be the lead index..i think

 

[wallstreet1928]

weekend analysis- FTSE

1 month , 60 min chart

still learning to use Fib ratios but from what i have learnt, we seem to have retraced 50% from early april highs

downtrend channel seems to have broken - light blue trend lines but with low volume I am suspicious

next target and resistance levels 4017 , 4032 .....gap resistance!!! I think we will struggle here and I will open up a short at these levels provided a few other variables(market leading stocks) look top heavy.

VOLUME- hopefully we should be able to gain clarification on whether or not this up-trend has any belief/conviction behind it when the big players come back and volume returns to some normality.

 

[wallstreet1928]

Weekend Technical Analysis - Storm Clouds On The Horizon? April 13-16, 2009

YouTube - inthemoneystocks's Channel

highly, highly recommended to listen my friends

real eye, ear, mind opener....................

 

[dr.blix]

WS, i think you have your fib in the wrong position. forgive me if i've misinterpreted your chart, i'm just learning, but i read that to forecast a chart after a high, the fib must be started from the top, not the bottom, and it must be started from the bar NEXT to the high, as this is taken as the beginning of the new trend (and not the end of the up trend), which would be 4124.

the fib would prob end at 3855(ish) as the second major upswing is where it should be located.

also, i understand that trend lines, s+p fib etc should be drawn from candles main bodies, not their extreme ranges.

obviously, if you know better, ignore me, and plz correct me! it's just what i'm reading at the mo (constance brown - technical analysis).

 

[wallstreet1928]

WS, i think you have your fib in the wrong position. forgive me if i've misinterpreted your chart, i'm just learning, but i read that to forecast a chart after a high, the fib must be started from the top, not the bottom, and it must be started from the bar NEXT to the high, as this is taken as the beginning of the new trend (and not the end of the up trend), which would be 4124.

the fib would prob end at 3855(ish) as the second major upswing is where it should be located.

also, i understand that trend lines, s+p fib etc should be drawn from candles main bodies, not their extreme ranges.

obviously, if you know better, ignore me, and plz correct me! it's just what i'm reading at the mo (constance brown - technical analysis).

thank you very much for pointing that out my friend

I haven't read many books and the ones that I have read I have skimmed through them, like I have been stating all along, i am just a Rookie that is still learning

I just emulate inthemoneystocks.com methodology

I have experimented with using the tails and body of the candlesticks and I have found that geometric trend line analysis can be very subjective in its nature. If for example the tail produces a better line(i.e. pierces the gap up/ gap down) then I will incline to utilise that instead of the line that starts from the body of the candlestick because it produces better results.

I have learnt from my university years that theory and practice are 2 different worlds

I have never been on any course but i do intend to to on the 18th...........

this thread was set up so that we all learn from one another, so thank you for that Dr Blix

 

[zo786]

On the topic of learning, is there a recommended list of books/DVD's for technical analysis somewhere?

Wheres the best place to start?

Thanks

 

[Dentalfloss]

just follow wallstreet"s calls on this thread.you will learn more than any book
put up the chart and play back in youre mind what he is saying.you wont go wrong

 

[Geofract]

Since I’m stuck indoors with a stomach bug, I thought I would share with you all one application of fibs that I have been reading about recently.

It is based on Elliot Wave theory, which, greatly simplified works on the basis that there are 5 waves up, and 3 corrective waves down in a rally.

This application of fibs first requires identification of a Wave 1, this is often referred to as the impulse wave. This wave is then followed by retracement (Wave 2), common values of which are 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, or there abouts. Which is then followed by Wave 3, etc.

Since Wave 3 tends to be the longest wave of the 5, then theoretically, this would be the best to buy. Measuring from the bottom to the top of wave 1 with the fib tool, gives us 2 projections, which maybe good points to sell.

Once the retracement of wave 2 is complete, we can draw a straight line from the bottom of wave 1, to the bottom of wave 2, this is the bottom line of our channel. Then we create a parallel line that meets the top of Wave 1, which becomes the top line of our channel.

You can buy the pullback, or the breakout above the top of Wave 1. For me it’s psychologically quite tough to buy the pull back, as you’re buying into a falling market, but I’m sure traders do that quite often?

Regardless of where you decide to buy, we now have 3 exit targets, the 138.2% and 161.8% fib projections, plus selling when the price meets the top of the channel.

This theory comes from Robert Fischer’s book, ‘Fibonacci Applications and Strategies for Traders’, and this is just my basic summary. There’s a whole bunch of other strategies in the book too, well worth a read IMO. Do a search on Google, and you may find a link to a free ecopy somewhere!!

There’s a few ifs/buts/maybes in the use of Elliot Wave theory, because it’s difficult to count and identify in realtime. Also, there is no guarantee there will be a 3rd or 5th wave – often there are failures. Certainly Fischer believes the 5th wave is the least common to occur.

Basic diagram attached to explain all this a little further. I’ll post some real world examples next.

 

[Geofract]

FTSE fib example attached - 30 min, 1 week chart. Price retraces to below 50 %, then ploughs on up to hit fib projections, and more. The break through the top of the channel could be taken as a sign of strength, but there was no 5th wave, and whole wave up has mostly retraced down in the days that followed.

 

[Geofract]

EUR/GBP example - very simalar to FTSE - retracement to 50%, top of channel hit, and exceeded, to hit 138.2% projection.

 

[Geofract]

Another FTSE example - fib projection of 161.8% hit. Was there 5 waves, or was the 3rd wave subdivided into 2, well actually it doesn't matter - all you need is an impulse wave 1 for this approach.

In some of these examples I have cut the tails off some of the candles, when drawing the bottom channel line (acceptable with hindsight I guess) - FWIW, it could be safer not to do this in realtime.

I've shown 30 min charts, but these formations are visible on all time frames. Just be aware, there may not be a 3rd wave.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend everyone.

 

[wallstreet1928]

Another FTSE example - fib projection of 161.8% hit. Was there 5 waves, or was the 3rd wave subdivided into 2, well actually it doesn't matter - all you need is an impulse wave 1 for this approach.

In some of these examples I have cut the tails off some of the candles, when drawing the bottom channel line (acceptable with hindsight I guess) - FWIW, it could be safer not to do this in realtime.

I've shown 30 min charts, but these formations are visible on all time frames. Just be aware, there may not be a 3rd wave.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend everyone.

don't stop my friend, I'm listening and learning

whilst watching Match of the day

Torres goal was amazing today, Mr Macheda saved uniteds bacon again and Bolton almost gave Chelsea a scare.......... interesting weekend!!

 

[Geofract]

don't stop my friend, I'm listening and learning

whilst watching Match of the day

Torres goal was amazing today, Mr Macheda saved uniteds bacon again and Bolton almost gave Chelsea a scare.......... interesting weekend!!

Glad you're enjoying the footy my friend, and this fib stuff. Been watching the Motorcycle GP qualifying myself - come on Rossi!!!

I'll try and find some examples of Wave 1 failures tommorow, just to give a little perspective.

 

[reddragon]

Hi all,
i was checking the Monthly/Weekly/ Daily Ftse Candle charts and i noticed
that th DAILY LOWS of the 24th and 26th of March, together with April 1st and 8th
are +/- 1pt of each other, with a good up day on the 9th April. The more points
of contact on a Support/ Resistance line the better ??? :clap:

 

[wallstreet1928]

Hi all,
i was checking the Monthly/Weekly/ Daily Ftse Candle charts and i noticed
that th DAILY LOWS of the 24th and 26th of March, together with April 1st and 8th
are +/- 1pt of each other, with a good up day on the 9th April. The more points
of contact on a Support/ Resistance line the better ??? :clap:

welcome, welcome my friend

 

[wallstreet1928]

FTSE strategy for Tuesday 14th April

1 week, 10 min analysis

Okay, so we find ourselves above 4000 once again


scenario 1 - I will be looking to go long provided we get through the resistance of 4008-4025.........I will go long up to gap fill 4070

scenario 2- I will look to go short if we fail to hold above 4000, but I will not open up short until we fall below 3960(wait for confirmation and not be impatient) as market makers may well take the market down to shake out a few long positions before flying higher. If we fail to hold 3960 the I will open up short up to 3920-3925

scenario 2a - If the market makers do get up to their antics then it will certainly be worth going long provided 3960 holds due to necktie 50 MA & 200 MA cross over along with red trend line providing support!!

 

[Dentalfloss]

tuesday.looks like no clear direction.maybe overnight/asia might give some clues
ftse chart.high box size showing a big red mark at 4350..needs to close above 4500 for this chart to be bullish.the resistance area at 4350 coincides with characteristics tha s & P 500 is showing.ie 900 on the s500,.my thinking is that direction / short term is unclear until we get to these big res areas.the short term trend is up

 

[Dentalfloss]

take care with any long trades.
nas 100 is in the major resistance zone.
high box number 45 points by 3 reversal.closed data