Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

[kaisen]

Your shorting after they fell 30% in the last month, why so sceptical





Our currency was devalued so stocks outpeform comparatively

Hi Sabre, always a pleasure to get your input. Seems like you follow the commodities too.

I actually made some money going long earlier today but placed a short on Fresnillo when it went over 9%. I believed this move to be overdone with pressure on oil and gold and from a psychological point of view i am hoping some froth comes off todays rise as some investors may look to crystallise some money back after the circa 30% losses.

With so much opinion about that we will be going south I am hoping the gain may fall back to 4-6% from the 9% earlier today. We will see.

I welcome your input my friend.

 

[pentlow1]

well i've just got back and i see my 168 short got stopped out at 13.30 for a 13 pt loss.

now it's on its way down to my 147 target...i know i should use stops larger that 12 pts, but i hate it when i put a huge stop on and still get stopped out by 0.5 of a pt and have to then try and make 30 pts back up.

That is a very tricky thing to get right. balancing how much you want to lose against your view of the market. It is the most frustrating thing in the world to get stopped and then the market goes immediately in the direction you predicted. They say the market isnt out to get you, but i think they are lying...the really clever bit is getting your entry point for your view of the market right. That is, being patient waiting for that point, rather than putting the trade on when you think its right rather then when the market says it is right. im not sure that helps and Im sure it isnt stuff youve heard a hundered times before. Good luck.

 

[dr.blix]

you're spot on pentlow, patience def is lacking.

 

[Mr. G]

short dow 8171

moved stop to 8155

 

[Death in June]

well i've just got back and i see my 168 short got stopped out at 13.30 for a 13 pt loss.

now it's on its way down to my 147 target...i know i should use stops larger that 12 pts, but i hate it when i put a huge stop on and still get stopped out by 0.5 of a pt and have to then try and make 30 pts back up.

Yeah Dr.Blix I know the feeling. I used to have a 6 to 8pt sl on the FTSE but I found that my trade might make a couple of points and then fall back so I would either jump ship and take a few points or hold on and very often watch it hit my sl before moving in the original direction.

I now try at least 15sl but usually 25pts sl, I feel less stressed although my biggest problem is letting my profits run. Because I always got stopped out before I always feel the need to want to grab some points as soon as they come my way.The problem being if you trade 10 times and you have 7 winning trades but only take 6 points per trade and then you loose 25 points on each of the 3 losing trades(sl 25) you are 42-75=33 points down...its Fustrating and Heart Breaking and very Costly.

So I'm trying to step back and wait for the trades to come to me. Its easier said than done though, as I posted earlier today I had planned to short at around 4187 but didn't because of self doubt...But thats the Markets for you its 100% mind games. You have to make a plan and follow it. If its successful...great... if not... learn from it and move on!

Now its just a matter of putting all the above into practice :cheesy:

DiJ

 

[Mr. G]

and out for +16

 

[SabreTT]

trailing stop?

I actually made some money going long earlier today but placed a short on Fresnillo when it went over 9%.

If you've already 'paid' for your position its hard for me to argue against it. Ideally I would always want to do this but playing the game both ways doubles the risk I reckon

I dont know much about commodities, part of a bigger picture I think


fres is ex div end of aug with yield of 2% it seems quite generous ?
http://www.investorresearch.mdgms.com/factsheet/factsheet.html?ID_NOTATION=22901689

 

[Mr. G]

Short Dow at 8156

 

[wallstreet1928]

I am short FTSE 4160 ...stop loss 4190

target 4140

closed FTSE for 10 points profit ...........trailing stop got triggered

too much uncertainty.........

I will sit it out now and wait fro direction

 

[kaisen]

trailing stop?




If you've already 'paid' for your position its hard for me to argue against it. Ideally I would always want to do this but playing the game both ways doubles the risk I reckon

I dont know much about commodities, part of a bigger picture I think


fres is ex div end of aug with yield of 2% it seems quite generous ?
Investor Research

Hi Sabre, I hear what you are saying and believe me at one point it wasnt pretty but it worked well in the end.
It is hard to know what constitutes hedging and what is increasing the risk? However I understand people do undertake this type of trading.
There seemed resistance all day at 490 on Fresnillo and this equated to my charting s&r.

Any thoughts always welcome, it will either identify an area i need to consider or reinforce my initial analysis.

What have you been playing with today?

 

[wallstreet1928]

I will watch the Ashes in the meantime

Day off work today so Relaxing

England: 435 (106.5 overs)
Australia: 170-1 (47.3 overs)

 

[SabreTT]

Dollar index is still falling, from that Im thinking stocks will close up from 880 anywhere up to mondays close in the usual fashion

tnx up 3%
eurusd up
usdyen up


Just watching kaisen, should have taken ftse long at close but didnt especially feel it apart from figuring the above just now
Thinking about reducing my ftse short etf
I'll add Fresnillo to my watchlist



498 was support on 19th june and 494 gave a foothold on 6th may for the following rally continuation


I have data for Fresnillo going back to 2005 but they werent quoted till last year ?

 

[WFTrader]

Hi,

This is a great thread, and I've been following this with much interest. I only stumbled on this thread in the past couple weeks. In the past, I've lost quite abit of money on ftse spreadbet because I jumped into this market without demoing it first. However, I've decided to paper trade for a while, and am hoping to pick up a few pointers by seeing how the pros do it.

Sorry if this has been covered already, but what's the difference between trading ftse and ftse futures? Is there any distinct advantage in trading one over another?

Many thanks!

 

[pentlow1]

I se the DAX played catch up as usual. i should trade my views more often.

 

[pentlow1]

Its gone awfully quiet? Has everyone given up and packed it in for the day?

 

[Tickdoc]

Looks like it!

I had a horrible day of second-guessing myself and stopping at B/E repeatedly so sheepishly keeping mum...

 

[dr.blix]

eat bugz tickdoc...woohaa!! :shuriken:

 

[dr.blix]

it's official tick, i just challenged you in the arcade...now everyone'll know if you chicken out! :cheesy:

u ready to get yo bug on:?::!:

 

[Tickdoc]

Dear MR. Blix...

I hate you! Last thing I needed after a hard day of trading (and today was HARD!) was to waste hours playing that damned game trying to beat you! I keep getting into the late hundreds and then i get hit by 2 simultaneously and I'm out!

BUT...EVERYONE should play! It is just like trading:
It was easy to get a highscore in the early days but getting harder all the time,
patience is key,
a good entry and timing is the only way to succeed,
greed kills,
red is bad,
AND YOU'RE a COCKROACH WHILE YOU PLAY THE GAME!

But seriously...I hate you!

 

[dr.blix]

HAHAHA!

it's funny tick, but i sometimes think similar things when i'm playing games...that there are parallels to trading, and the similarities can shift depending on the game.

blackjack is a great game to teach yourself the rules of risk management re bet (position) size in relation to your pot (account).

even some of the silly games give you an insight into potential weaknesses in your trading psychology.

but i suppose there are parallels in many things that relate to trading, because, something i've come to realise is...the rules that govern trading the markets, are the same ones that govern the universe!