Wallstreet1928 Analysis & live calls on FTSE,DAX,S&P...aimed to help New traders

[kaisen]

You guys are scalping. Not a good idea with spreadbetting.

Trading CFDs on indices with 2pnt spread, 1pnt if you get mid price filled.

another 3 pnts just taken, thats 16pnts with no major movement plus i missed some moves typing to get your guys input.

Again, i am not trying to be smart just trying something out. I welcome everyones input because i am here to learn and to share etc.

All the best

 

[kaisen]

Bund Trade:
3 contracts on at 119.00,
1 off at .30, another off at .46, left the third on to target 67
+76ticks so far.
The bonds are where its at today guys!

Well done Tracey, and thanks as ever for your input. I need to learn one thing at a time methinks but I will research and try and understand everything you post.

 

[dr.blix]

ok, i'm praying for a reactangle on the 5TF and a triangle on the hourly. 4373 still as my target, but i may shift that to 4397 if this sodding thing actually goes north.

4367 is a res price level and also the top of my small up channel...it's struggling a little here, if it gets popped it'll look good for 4373 but there's a tiny, tiny bit of bearish osc div.

 

[dr.blix]

Bund Trade:
3 contracts on at 119.00,
1 off at .30, another off at .46, left the third on to target 67
+76ticks so far.
The bonds are where its at today guys!

nice one trace

 

[dr.blix]

4367 is a res price level and also the top of my small up channel...it's struggling a little here, if it gets popped it'll look good for 4373 but there's a tiny, tiny bit of bearish osc div.

going for another test.

the floor of my up channel is also exactly over my 21 MA which i quite like.

it is looking like i called the hourly triangle and 5/10 TF rectangle right, but i won't feel happy until 4367 is popped.

 

[lapalabra]

Hiya matey, I will always listen to what you guys say as i think you are tops!! (nice pharse eh?)
Read my post to lapa and then let me know your thoughts.

I am not looking to fire off random shots but If i see an entry or trend i was wondering what was wrong with banking pnts within short price movements and buying back in on minor retracements (on tight range days only). Sometimes the full move can take some time to develop.

If i think the trend is turning i bail out.

Often my entries coincide with Francis´s calls and today yours also.

Let me know your thoughts, I just want you to confirm the error of my ways to me so I understand.

Cheers in advance.

As Split just said, this is scalping. Your reward for 'banking price on short price movements' is far outweighed by having to pay off the spread and then one move catching you out which takes out any points you previously made.

How do you know what is a 'tight range price day'? How do you know the full move taking time to develop won't occur while you have a position open? Why isn't it better to wait for that move and get the set up right than risking your money in the meantime?

And I don't think talking of trends in such ranges and on short price movements really makes sense. You don't have time to to 'think if the trend is turning' if you are scalping, its already on you and you've lost if it does.

There are methods for what you are doing and people who do it - not on spreadbetting though I'm sure -and within very defined set ups. Just my thoughts.

 

[dr.blix]

trace, can you see what the volumes like on the FTSE?!

is it petering out?

 

[Splitlink]

Ok, guys, you are not scalping, I apologise.

I see nothing wrong what you are doing , provided that there is a bigger plan. This is what I call a whipsaw situation and best to go and have a cold beer.

 

[sujithsstorock]

buy ftse 100 now at 4260 sl 4230 (below 2days low) tgt 4290-4344

this call about to hit 2nd tgt.

this was yesterdays call..!! low was 2243.8 thr after.

 

[Tickdoc]

I'm with you there Splitty!

 

[lapalabra]

Ok, guys, you are not scalping, I apologise.

I see nothing wrong what you are doing , provided that there is a bigger plan. This is what I call a whipsaw situation and best to go and have a cold beer.

I'm in the cold beer camp, definitely!

 

[traceyjc]

Blix:
Volume is down across the board today (compared to others) because the vol. was split between the june and sep. contracts + big investors aren't in equities today with quadruple witching. Here's a pic of the 15min chart, volume on the bottom::

You'd want to click the pic to open in new page as the zoom is bad quality

 

[dr.blix]

Ok, guys, you are not scalping, I apologise.

I see nothing wrong what you are doing , provided that there is a bigger plan. This is what I call a whipsaw situation and best to go and have a cold beer.

is this not a rectangle on the 10TF and a symmetrical triangle on the hourly split?

both confirming continuation patterns, but only if they're accompanied by volume of course.

that's very kind of you to post that volume chart trcaey thanks...i can't open the link which is a shame, but please don't take any more of your time up, specially if you're at work

EDIT: aah, i can see that chart now tracey, thanks again for posting that.

hopefully we'll float upto 4373 on the light volume.

we're certainly in a really tight channel.

 

[kaisen]

Well, it sounds like you have some kind of system for it, but if you are spreadbetting then thats an immediate spread lost which is a high % of the points you are trying to scalp, and as DB said, your r/r is terrible.

The point of that quote I gave is that you only need one strong move against you and suddenly all those quick small points are lost. Not that you need a big move to make loads, but that the risk in playing small moves means that can all be lost if it moves against you - every position you open is an exposure.

Surely it makes more sense positioning yourself for that move which gives you a decent risk reward and makes up for the slippage of your spread.

I've lost lots of money doing what you are doing, but maybe you have a system for it -for me trading this choppy range before US open doesn't make sense.

Thanks lapa. As I said I will digest everything you all tell me and I understand where you are coming from. As mentioned in another post it is CFD´s with pretty tight spread not spread betting but I will consider all your points. I am not here to be flash and i am certainly not arsey so i will listen as I want to learn from more experienced traders.

I suppose the other thing i am relying on is consesus. If everyone is taking similar positions and all analysis concurs, if I effectively take my profit early and then the martet mini trends/retraces the other way and then i come back in at the same or better position with some banked profit, is that not a reasonable strategy? I may risk missing some points on a bigger move but i can always buy in albeit slightly higher if the big move starts!?! If it doesnt start and i bank a sequence of pnts and then it starts or if the big move never comes I have still taken some profit. There do not seem to be too many big moves per day and as i read frequently that history repeats iteself i am looking at whether, in tight ranges and during slow periods, whether this is a reasonable strategy.

Reagrding risk v reward, surely if you have taken a position for the right reasons, taking a small amount of profit has a factor on the probability?:

Thanks already for your input and please, honestly, come back to me again as i really want to know whether this is dillisional or whether it has a place in certain tight range conditions.

Many thanks again for humouring me.

 

[lapalabra]

Reagrding risk v reward, surely if you have taken a position for the right reasons, taking a small amount of profit has a factor on the probability?:

Ah, ok if its CFDs and you have a strategy for it, then good luck, just not for me.

But with ref to above, uh-uh, risk reward and probability are two separate things. Your edge can be one or the other in a given trade or over time, rarely both. Its their relationship with the method you have which determines long term success (on paper anyway).

By the way, I speak confidently but I aint no expert either, I only speak this confidently when I feel I am speaking about areas where I have lost enough money to qualify for an opinion!

 

[traceyjc]

Bund trade:
3rd contract stopped out at 32, 108ticks in total, nearly a 4hour trade. I think that's me done trading for the day! Volume should be picking up a bit now with the US traders at their desks now and euro ppl coming back from lunch. Good luck guys, remember, if you've had a good week, don't throw it all away on todays volatility just for a few ticks

 

[lapalabra]

Bund trade:
3rd contract stopped out at 32, 108ticks in total, nearly a 4hour trade. I think that's me done trading for the day! Volume should be picking up a bit now with the US traders at their desks now and euro ppl coming back from lunch. Good luck guys, remember, if you've had a good week, don't throw it all away on todays volatility just for a few ticks

Tracey, I have no idea of bunds but 108 positive of anything sounds awesome. Nice one.

OK, managed to get a 4362 long entry on FTSE.

 

[dr.blix]

LOL, after all that closed for BE!!

at least you got some points out of all that mr.kaisen

 

[kaisen]

Ah, ok if its CFDs and you have a strategy for it, then good luck, just not for me.

But with ref to above, uh-uh, risk reward and probability are two separate things. Your edge can be one or the other in a given trade or over time, rarely both. Its their relationship with the method you have which determines long term success (on paper anyway).

By the way, I speak confidently but I aint no expert either, I only speak this confidently when I feel I am speaking about areas where I have lost enough money to qualify for an opinion!

Thanks Lapa, I really appreicate your time in replying to me and i will review everything you have said. Just got another 3pnts by the way 4361 shorted to 4359.

Not trying to be flash but just trying to take profit as it is provided when i feel a move is coming. And as i say Francis´s input is a good confirmation factor.

I guess i am just trying the not too greedy and quite worried about the volatility today to wait for the big move strategy. I also have started to question the merits of giving my profits back as i wait for the market to hit a big target.

We will see. I will certainly post to advise of any major set back in the strategy i am currently using to warn others if i find something majorly wrong, but i am trying to combine a number of elements i have either read or been told and so how it all goes. 19pnts up since i started bitting the small moves.

Just hope i dont give it all back!

 

[lapalabra]

Bit off topic I know, but whoooo, awesome risk reward play for a long on GBP/CHF @ 17816. Long there now. I will either experience a small loss or a x4 gain.

EDIT: and she's tanking.... (sigh)

Out for a x2 gain cos I aint got the cahunas, 45pips prof.

Hail the accelerated trendline...