LAST POST for a while
The mysterious spike lower on Monday was probably not an error but front running a big sell program. Yesterday the put buying for NASDAQ stocks and in particular the NASDAQ tracker stock QQQ was at an all-time high for a 1-day volume. This could merely be an insurance against anything unexpected.
This “unexpected” could be approaching fast. I am not sure if you have ever studied Chris Carolan’s Spiral Calendar. Mr Carolan has found a statistically significant correlation between the two most significant crashes in the last century, the 1929 and the 1987 crash. Without going into too much detail he found that the number of moons between major events in the history of the world tied in precisely to the day on the Fibonacci growth spiral, when taken as a square root number. Unfortunately this was not a one-off coincidence. He was able to tie in the drop of the first A-bomb in 1945 as well, and some other less flattering events perpetrated by mankind over the last 100 years. It has long been known that the next significant date on the Spiral Calendar is the 29th July 2003. The Spiral calendar suggests that highly emotional events in the past generate highly emotional events in the future.
On the 29th July this year there are two spirals that come together. The 1st spiral is the Fibonacci relationship between the crash in 1929 and the crash in 1987.
As I said above the 2nd Spiral originates from the 6th of August 1945 bombing of Hiroshima. I have cut and past the text below which is the work of Roy Fellow from Colorado long-wave forum:
The first event on that spiral occurred at the F25 on 9/27/67 when LBJ went on national prime time television on ALL channels (remember, no cable TV then… network TV was the only game in town) offering to stop the bombing of North Vietnam if the Viet Cong and NV would come to the peace table. At the time, if you recall, he was under extreme domestic pressure from many groups to end the Vietnam War. The F26 interval is 10/6/73 exactly on the day that Egyptian Forces under Nasser launched a surprise invasion of Israel across the Red Sea in the commencement of the Yom Kippur War. The F27 interval is 6/6/81. At the time the French were assisting the Iraqis to build a nuclear reactor outside of Baghdad that would have the ability to produce fissionable material to construct nuclear weapons. On June 8, 1981, Israel sent one plane with one bomb and destroyed the heart of that reactor. The F29 interval on that spiral is July 29, 2003.
He finishes off by writing that neither he nor Mr Carolan is predicting a nuclear event but the possibility of an emotional event. I present this material to you and you can make your own assessment of the material.
Technically the market is rolling over and the double top at 1015 will be strong resistance for the bulls. However, today will be significant in the sense that it is possible to argue a bullish case with a move above 1008 in the SP500. The bearish case is a move below 996. What you must realise is that the market can decline all the way down to 961 and still be in a bullish momentum in the bigger wave degree.
Bonds are collapsing and this could be very painful for the banks and the brokers and in particular Freddie Mac and Fannie May. This is definitely something to look out for and in particular if the Fed will come in and support the market.
Intel could cause a gap-and-run today in the market but there will be a lot of resistance at $25.10 and above to $26. INTC closed at $24.10 last night and is currently trading at $ 25.40 in Germany.
My thinking here is that the market rarely has an emotional event like the one discussed before without the market beginning to trend in the emotional direction beforehand. The crash in 1929 and 1987 had been trending for at least a month before the crash occurred. As an example of an emotional event, which did not give, a warning signal was the JFK killing in 1963. The market gapped down huge in a very significant up-trend. The market recovered within hours. In the 90’s Allan Greenspan held his famous Irrational Exuberance speech in a clearly defined uptrend. The market pretty much went limit down but recovered within 24 hours. If the market continues higher into the 29th of July this year, I think the high for the year will come in around the 6th of August.
The market should decline today and may possibly slide below 1000. There is some good geometry around the 980 area. From then on we should see a rally up to 1030 going into the 23rd of July. From then on the picture becomes very unclear and this could mean that we will simply trade sideways into month-end.
I am aware that many bears are pinning their hopes on the Bradley model. As I have not seen a decline after the turning date and we are consolidating near the highs, I think we should move much higher going into the month-end. There is a square of 9 turning point coming in at the 23rd of July and this should set the market back for 2-3 days.
The conclusion in my view is that the market will go lower later this summer and it could be quite swift. Whether the 29th July will be the catalyst or not remains to be seen right now. As far as I am concerned I can’t fit that date in with the geometry. It is possible that the final high will be around 1041 going into the final week of July.
Good luck
Sunseeker
