Morning. Great work Tom. As a matter of interest, have you read ' The Delta Phenoomenom by Welles Wilder or The Spiral Calendar by Christopher Carolan ? Both I thought were very interesting reads. I do feel that your analysis ties in with a lot to do with Delta ?
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Good morning,
The move lower on Thursday hit 982, which was a bullish retracement and a “fill the gap”, exercise. Friday was quite bullish but I want to be 100% sure that it is not just and average cost sell program to boost prices before plunging to new lows. The expected path for today is very bullish but as always I never know where the SP500 will open. Europe is simply trading sideways and there is no economic news out before the bell. Citigroup will be reporting and this will set the tone for the morning. I will be bullish the indices if the SP500 can get above 1003. I think to day has the potential to run up to the old high of 1015 and then 1021. However, if we trade below 995 again it is highly likely that Friday was the rest day for the sell program.
This week is option expiration but the VIX is so low that it may just be a non-event. I am bullish on today and think we got the potential for a 2% move day. SP500 pivot point will be 1000. I will be alert for a reversal in the first hour and for the potential that the path for the day inverses so rather than getting a trend day to the upside we get a trend day to the downside. Basically I will go with the flow after the first 40 minutes.
Wednesday could have been the top for the move up since March but if the SP gets above 1005 I think the bears will run for cover. There are many banks reporting this week. The banks have had a glorious time with all the re-financing and this combined with the bull run since March could mean very good earnings. What I will be keen to see is if they sell the news.
The move lower on Thursday hit 982, which was a bullish retracement and a “fill the gap”, exercise. Friday was quite bullish but I want to be 100% sure that it is not just and average cost sell program to boost prices before plunging to new lows. The expected path for today is very bullish but as always I never know where the SP500 will open. Europe is simply trading sideways and there is no economic news out before the bell. Citigroup will be reporting and this will set the tone for the morning. I will be bullish the indices if the SP500 can get above 1003. I think to day has the potential to run up to the old high of 1015 and then 1021. However, if we trade below 995 again it is highly likely that Friday was the rest day for the sell program.
This week is option expiration but the VIX is so low that it may just be a non-event. I am bullish on today and think we got the potential for a 2% move day. SP500 pivot point will be 1000. I will be alert for a reversal in the first hour and for the potential that the path for the day inverses so rather than getting a trend day to the upside we get a trend day to the downside. Basically I will go with the flow after the first 40 minutes.
Wednesday could have been the top for the move up since March but if the SP gets above 1005 I think the bears will run for cover. There are many banks reporting this week. The banks have had a glorious time with all the re-financing and this combined with the bull run since March could mean very good earnings. What I will be keen to see is if they sell the news.
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I use my path for turning points and direction. However, I am always very careful with what goes on during the middle of the day. The strength in the path for me is that it gives me an idea of what I can expect the market to do. I will combine that knowledge with my wave analysis....I pay close attention to the first two and final two hours, as I believe that is where the serious money comes into the market. IF the path says down and the market trades higher, I simply look for momentum...is the move higher slow and sideways grind or is it with force...if slow, then I know that they would like to take it higher but the tide is against them....
the 268 rule ( well spotted, you are the first one to ask ) is the result of studying 7 years worth of data...the market has a tendency to reverse on the 268th minute of the day....
I use Delta, but delta and geometry dont gell at all...Delta short-term (intra-day) is not that straight forward because of weekends....so I would say that Delta is 5% of my work if that much.
I hope this helps
the 268 rule ( well spotted, you are the first one to ask ) is the result of studying 7 years worth of data...the market has a tendency to reverse on the 268th minute of the day....
I use Delta, but delta and geometry dont gell at all...Delta short-term (intra-day) is not that straight forward because of weekends....so I would say that Delta is 5% of my work if that much.
I hope this helps
Tom,
would that be 268 from cash open.Notice your chart around 6-45pm.
I make it 268/60=4.47 hrs
2-30pm+4.47=7-17pm
Also is there a ratio of this rule which explains a reversal within the first/second hour of trading.I've noticed key reversal days either start here or around lunchtime in US,between 12/1pm
Thanks
Steve
would that be 268 from cash open.Notice your chart around 6-45pm.
I make it 268/60=4.47 hrs
2-30pm+4.47=7-17pm
Also is there a ratio of this rule which explains a reversal within the first/second hour of trading.I've noticed key reversal days either start here or around lunchtime in US,between 12/1pm
Thanks
Steve
F
ford
Nice tie there Tom.. 
Today is an inversion Day on intra day Delta, which means it should be up for the first part of the day and then will either invert and carry on up or move down. All in all, a maximum of two major moves today unlike other days when the market is eg. up, down, up etc. The 17th/18th July is a big juncture, but will the market move up to their or down ?
Tom,
29th July is also a new moon - wonder if that can add to the esoteric side of analysis, and also natural cycles...
and unfortunately, i wasn't long intel - but wasn't short niether - but as it has broken out, then as a fairly large constituent of the indices, it could help push them up....
29th July is also a new moon - wonder if that can add to the esoteric side of analysis, and also natural cycles...
and unfortunately, i wasn't long intel - but wasn't short niether
- but as it has broken out, then as a fairly large constituent of the indices, it could help push them up....
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SUNSEEKER said:
True, but my records show that they are more likely to inverse, than not.
So I err on the side of their being an inversion, and if not, then so be it.
Re: the fib moon cycle coming up for 29th July, here is a good explanatary link and diagram for those unfamiliar with the Chris Carolan's work:
http://csf.colorado.edu/forums/longwaves/2003/msg00422.html
The link is from a list on long waves which has now disbanded.
Q. for Sunseeker:
Do you like Ray Tomes's ideas?
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A Quote I like by George Bayer: "From all this we can now recognize the first time that the markets, stocks, wheat, hides, cocoa and all other represent fully a man who lives, eats and disposes of waste matter."
http://csf.colorado.edu/forums/longwaves/2003/msg00422.html
The link is from a list on long waves which has now disbanded.
Q. for Sunseeker:
Do you like Ray Tomes's ideas?
------------------------------------------------
A Quote I like by George Bayer: "From all this we can now recognize the first time that the markets, stocks, wheat, hides, cocoa and all other represent fully a man who lives, eats and disposes of waste matter."
Here's another link:
http://www.calendarresearch.com/
Seems to have changed the colour of his book, from the green well thumbed one I have
Cheers a320
http://www.calendarresearch.com/
Seems to have changed the colour of his book, from the green well thumbed one I have
Cheers a320
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I have today as an inversion day, and it's the only one in the current cycle. Occasionally there is a double inversion on the same day, but it happens quite rarely and that's based on the intraday data I have going back three years.
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hi sumathik, and welcome to T2W
An inversion is an extra peak (or trough) which therefore inverts the cycle after the inversion.
An inversion is an extra peak (or trough) which therefore inverts the cycle after the inversion.
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