FXSCALPER2
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I reckon we should help him make this very long. Whoever buys this bollox from this shyster desrerves and we get free entertainment. Happy days!
TRO Test Results
- Thread starter UKtradergirl
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I reckon we should help him make this very long. Whoever buys this bollox from this shyster desrerves and we get free entertainment. Happy days!
TheRumpledOne
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HERE'S A LOSING TRADE!!
Does that make some of you happy?
TheRumpledOne
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If your indicators are NOT available, then no one can get them so no vendor tag.
I also have ebooks that are marketed by others. That's another reason for the vendor tag.
TheRumpledOne
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This is NOT my thread...LOL!
TheRumpledOne
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What are you all on about anyway?
This thread was supposed to be about the challenge.
Can't you people stay ON TOPIC?
This thread was supposed to be about the challenge.
Can't you people stay ON TOPIC?
zupcon
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The outcome of a trade is completely irrelevant, Lemmy said it best "Win some lose some its all the same to me"
YouTube - Motorhead - Ace Of Spades
TheRumpledOne
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TheRumpledOne
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EURUSD traders must be taking the day off.
Thank you UKtradergirl for starting the thread and showing the results of the EA.
As I look at the results, this EA shows the win rate is 80%. The other examples from page 1 of the thread have a win rate of between 67% and 73%. I must admit that the equity curves look really bad for this setup.
However, based on the win rate I think it is possible to be profitable with the setup but the problems that would prevent profitability are:
1) How does one know which trade to skip and what are the reasons to pass on the trade?
2) How many pips a day does one really need to reach their goals?
3) Is a 20-pip stop loss suitable?
I think if one can satisfactorily find answers to these questions then yes it can be profitable.
Thoughts anyone?
Why are you still testing this EA? EA's ARE NOT ACCURATE and DO NOT PRODUCE 'HARD COLD FACTS'.
WHY can't you just apply the rules YOURSELF and not have to code them to a bot? IT'S NOT HARD. Pull your finger out for half an hour and trade yourself, following the rules, and POST the charts.
You all say "its losing its losing" with what proof? Surely you don't expect the EA's results to be viable.. No, you couldn't think that. Wait, was it the one or two charts posted from the EA as the proof?.. Nah surely you couldn't think thats viable.. SURELY not.
When you find the time, instead of scrutinizing some backtested results from a computer and lines of code, do some trades yourself, it DOESN't take long. And post your charts, be it winners OR losers. And be fair, don't do one trade and make your decision, do a handful of trades and be truethful about it.
WHY can't you just apply the rules YOURSELF and not have to code them to a bot? IT'S NOT HARD. Pull your finger out for half an hour and trade yourself, following the rules, and POST the charts.
You all say "its losing its losing" with what proof? Surely you don't expect the EA's results to be viable.. No, you couldn't think that. Wait, was it the one or two charts posted from the EA as the proof?.. Nah surely you couldn't think thats viable.. SURELY not.
When you find the time, instead of scrutinizing some backtested results from a computer and lines of code, do some trades yourself, it DOESN't take long. And post your charts, be it winners OR losers. And be fair, don't do one trade and make your decision, do a handful of trades and be truethful about it.
So you reckon that doing a couple of trades of a couple of hours is a test of something ? Absurd.
I've got news for you - there is an awful lot of automated trading going on out there. It disingenuous and ignorant to dismiss automated systems. Which is not to say that most "EAs" are not a pile of old rubbish.
Here's something to think about. Automated systems offer the possibility of diversification to an extent just not possible for discretionary day traders. When all is said and done, diversification is about the only free lunch there is in this game.
If you want to talk about hard facts, then lets see some proper accountable trade records for postion sizes larger than play money.
Or alteratively some backtesting conducted using best practice.
Testimonials are laughable.
As to why nobody wants to apply these rules themselves, it really is very simple - the "rules" have no credbility here.
I'll also add that I have never seen any decent reason to trade cash fx. Dodgy bucket shops, poor data quality, not a proper auction market, no volume and no order book. You're behind the game from the start.
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NO I do NOT think that a couple of trades will determine if a method is profitable or not. I say do a handful of trades because a handful of trades already seems too much for any of you do to yourself manually. I'm trying to say to put into practice the method YOURSELF and not a damn robot.
I'm NOT ruling EA's OUT COMPLETELY. From my last post I thought you may have figured that I meant using an EA for THIS "SYSTEM" (IN WHICH CASE THIS IS NOT, TRO HAS ALREADY EXPLAINED) WILL NOT produce results you would normally get while trading YOURSELF. But I DO stand by the fact that no, more than half the EA's out there do NOT work, yes a handful may, I have yet to see one work for an extended period of time. Maybe you see profit after 3 weeks of using an EA, but in 3 months or the LONG run you'll eventually come to a loss.
Sorry, but are you intentionally trying to come off stupid? I don't think you're stupid. So read carefully. There HAVE been posts of accountable trade records from REAL MONEY trades. Specifically success from xmess7 and Dragon. Do a little search for Dragons posts on the Never Lose Again thread found on babypips and you'll find your hard facts.
Also a post from johnnykanoo:
"I would also like to add that I have been using dragon33's money management ideas and my account has grown from $500 to now it is $5387 all this is from nov. 1 last month i grew it to over 7k b ut lost it all and now i have polished my mm and growing steady." You can find this on the babypips thread page 241. Maybe if you even pm him he MAY just show you proof, but I cannot see why he would come online and lie in the first place.
Why is backtesting so important to you? It doesn't show whats happning NOW. Forget the backtests, get onto a demo account and apply the rules yourself. And DON'T say using a demo account is not viable. You can't tell me you dont test your different strategies on a demo account before a real.
How so?
Why are you here.
Is your day job selling used cars ?
My last post might seem a bit flippant, but there is a little more behind it than just that. I want to know the motivation for the evangelical zeal defending all this nonsense.
If I was posting stuff I believed to be a pathway to "Never Have a Losing Trade", and I was getting slagged off for my trouble, I would just say "f**k 'em" and return to making large sums of money.
It just doesn't add up.
If I was posting stuff I believed to be a pathway to "Never Have a Losing Trade", and I was getting slagged off for my trouble, I would just say "f**k 'em" and return to making large sums of money.
It just doesn't add up.
For me personally, I'm defending this "nonsense" because it's changed my trading from these squiggly lines and messy charts to simple, more effective trading. So I get annoyed when people are writing off this method and saying it doesn't produce the results. And then we have people (I'm not singling you out) who want proof. If real time charts arn't proof enough, then, I've said it once ill say it again, you CAN find real proof from trades from real accounts.
No one said about "Never having a losing trade". The thread name NEVER LOSE AGAIN is relating to the long term of a trader. There is NO method in which you will NEVER lose a single trade. But stick with it, and you will never lose again. There are hundreds of threads named "THE HOLY GRAIL" and "BEST PROFITABLE SYSTEM" etc, of course, its to attract people. Whats the point of starting a thread if you cannot get anyone interested enough into even clicking your thread?
Also another point, I see people thinking this is for advertising etc. But when TRO himself promotes NOT TO USE INDICATORS AT ALL and is NOT promoting his own indicators, people STILL somehow gather that these threads are for him trying to make money. READ THE POSTS, and DON'T ASSUME IN YOUR HEAD before you start accusing people of false things. (Again, not singling you out dcraig1)
No one said about "Never having a losing trade". The thread name NEVER LOSE AGAIN is relating to the long term of a trader. There is NO method in which you will NEVER lose a single trade. But stick with it, and you will never lose again. There are hundreds of threads named "THE HOLY GRAIL" and "BEST PROFITABLE SYSTEM" etc, of course, its to attract people. Whats the point of starting a thread if you cannot get anyone interested enough into even clicking your thread?
Also another point, I see people thinking this is for advertising etc. But when TRO himself promotes NOT TO USE INDICATORS AT ALL and is NOT promoting his own indicators, people STILL somehow gather that these threads are for him trying to make money. READ THE POSTS, and DON'T ASSUME IN YOUR HEAD before you start accusing people of false things. (Again, not singling you out dcraig1)
UKtradergirl
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I have stated several times: i accept that EA's are not 100% reliable in their results.
Hence, we can allow a margin of error. Let's say 20%. So the EA could be out by as much as 20% either way. Now, that either makes TRO's strategy still a loser- or it makes it an even bigger loser than before. Lose is lose- either way.
Explain to me how it might be possible for an EA coded on a very simple strategy can be out as much as 20%?
Trading this manually is fair enough. Let's do that. What is a reasonable sample size? At least 1000 trades. Better would be 5,000 or 10,000. THat would give us a better idea of the expected results. Do you have these records for manual trades? No? Takes a long time doesn't it? The EA is the best we can do for now, and as i said above we can take a margin of error into account when reviewing it.
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I am not denying the fact that there are a few people out there who have made a bit of money doing this. You are most likely doing something a little extra, adding your own slant on things though, since if you were following the system directly you would be acheiving similar results to the EA (+/- 20% perhaps?).
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Since this system shows a good % win rate- it is hardly surprising to see plentiful examples of winning trades posted online. A string of winning trades posted online means absolutely nothing. It is newbies that get taken in by such blatant misrepresentation of data.
It is also possible to have winning days trading this, perhaps a string of winning days- as evidenced above in the one day test i did where we have a postitive result. Flip a coin 20 times in a row and you could get 10 head, 10 tails, you could get 20 heads in a row- if you had 20 heads in a row would you think 'great- this is a winner- i'll just keep betting on heads' ? Same thing can be applied to this, allbeit with a different skew in the odds from 50-50 to 70-30.
Hence the arguement about needing a representative sample, and bringing us back to the manual testing idea being impractical and time consuming, and the fact that an EA is a great approximation and that we can allow a margin of error (in this case i've allowed a huge margin of error!).
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To ggs14u,
You will have to ask TRO what he considers reasons to skip a trade. From what i understand, news releases are one example of times they avoid.
How many pips a day do you need to reach your goal? I don't know that depends what your goal is and how much per pip you are trading. I personally don't have a daily goal as it impacts on you psychologically in a negative way. I prefer to look for value trades, good setups that fulfill my entry criteria (which includes knowing the exact points i will exit for a profit, or cut my losses). I have multiple other ways to assess my performance- will be happy to explain more if you are interested. I do also look at monthly and yearly goals. Most important though is accurate trading, money follows afterwards on it's own.
In my opinion, a 20 pip stop loss compared to a 5 pip take profit is entirely not acceptable. These were not my rules. Play with the figures in the EA and see what you can come up with- i'm sure there is something much more profitable in it than the setup we currently have. Good luck with your trading.
Hence, we can allow a margin of error. Let's say 20%. So the EA could be out by as much as 20% either way. Now, that either makes TRO's strategy still a loser- or it makes it an even bigger loser than before. Lose is lose- either way.
Explain to me how it might be possible for an EA coded on a very simple strategy can be out as much as 20%?
Trading this manually is fair enough. Let's do that. What is a reasonable sample size? At least 1000 trades. Better would be 5,000 or 10,000. THat would give us a better idea of the expected results. Do you have these records for manual trades? No? Takes a long time doesn't it? The EA is the best we can do for now, and as i said above we can take a margin of error into account when reviewing it.
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I am not denying the fact that there are a few people out there who have made a bit of money doing this. You are most likely doing something a little extra, adding your own slant on things though, since if you were following the system directly you would be acheiving similar results to the EA (+/- 20% perhaps?).
--
Since this system shows a good % win rate- it is hardly surprising to see plentiful examples of winning trades posted online. A string of winning trades posted online means absolutely nothing. It is newbies that get taken in by such blatant misrepresentation of data.
It is also possible to have winning days trading this, perhaps a string of winning days- as evidenced above in the one day test i did where we have a postitive result. Flip a coin 20 times in a row and you could get 10 head, 10 tails, you could get 20 heads in a row- if you had 20 heads in a row would you think 'great- this is a winner- i'll just keep betting on heads' ? Same thing can be applied to this, allbeit with a different skew in the odds from 50-50 to 70-30.
Hence the arguement about needing a representative sample, and bringing us back to the manual testing idea being impractical and time consuming, and the fact that an EA is a great approximation and that we can allow a margin of error (in this case i've allowed a huge margin of error!).
--
To ggs14u,
You will have to ask TRO what he considers reasons to skip a trade. From what i understand, news releases are one example of times they avoid.
How many pips a day do you need to reach your goal? I don't know that depends what your goal is and how much per pip you are trading. I personally don't have a daily goal as it impacts on you psychologically in a negative way. I prefer to look for value trades, good setups that fulfill my entry criteria (which includes knowing the exact points i will exit for a profit, or cut my losses). I have multiple other ways to assess my performance- will be happy to explain more if you are interested. I do also look at monthly and yearly goals. Most important though is accurate trading, money follows afterwards on it's own.
In my opinion, a 20 pip stop loss compared to a 5 pip take profit is entirely not acceptable. These were not my rules. Play with the figures in the EA and see what you can come up with- i'm sure there is something much more profitable in it than the setup we currently have. Good luck with your trading.
new_trader
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Hmmmm...tricky one....sort of yes and sort of no....
You only have to look through the archive to see who has been abused, scorned and criticised (and you have to have experienced it yourself) to realise that some people are driven by altruism. There are many posting in this forum and this thread that claim to be successful traders but are on a crusade to save newbies from sharks and conmen. So, by the same token, why don't they just say the same thing about newbies "f**k 'em, let them lose their money" and return to making large sums of money themselves?
UKtradergirl
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new_trader:
I find posting on here a great distraction which prevents me from placing bad trades out of boredom. Got nothing better to do with my time basically. hehe. That, and vendors selling nothing of value is a pet hate of mine. How do you define success? If i had £500 million in the bank i'd probably still be posting on here, kicking ass amongst the vendors. I enjoy it. I come on here for the same reasons i enjoy playing the piano. No profit but plenty of other kinds of rewards. Financially, all that counts for me is that i don't have to go back to work for anyone else again- cannot bear the thought!
I find posting on here a great distraction which prevents me from placing bad trades out of boredom. Got nothing better to do with my time basically. hehe. That, and vendors selling nothing of value is a pet hate of mine. How do you define success? If i had £500 million in the bank i'd probably still be posting on here, kicking ass amongst the vendors. I enjoy it. I come on here for the same reasons i enjoy playing the piano. No profit but plenty of other kinds of rewards. Financially, all that counts for me is that i don't have to go back to work for anyone else again- cannot bear the thought!
I think the "boredom" motivation may apply to a few here. Certainly does in my case.
