Technically Fundamental
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queers
bangkokgee
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can be done
yes you can trade without charts,or scalp if thats what we will call it,and the only thing you can trade is the price,when its moving jump on,get off,when price tells you too.its not easy, there,s nothing as queer as folk
shatztrader
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perhaps because he`s not familiar with The Paramouncy Principle.
T2W Day Trading & Forex Community
Emotional self-control: keeping disruptive emotions and impulses under control.
"Because charts lie"
I for one don't use price charts in my approach and know a number of other traders employing different styles who also don't use price charts in any meaningful way.
Better to learn to think clearly, but then again each to their own.
Regards
John1
B
Black Swan
"Because charts lie"
How so?
How so?
Hi John1 - Charts don't lie, theyn tell the absolute truth - about the past. But the conclusions people draw from them on future price action can be unreliable and the blind faith they put in these, encouraged by system vendors, is dangerous.
By which I mean, faulty TA is no reason not to use charts, its an argument for better TA. Its very possible to trade successfully without charts but doing so because one's TA is poor is not guarantee of success at scalping etc.
By which I mean, faulty TA is no reason not to use charts, its an argument for better TA. Its very possible to trade successfully without charts but doing so because one's TA is poor is not guarantee of success at scalping etc.
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My view ( one familar to other successful speculators that I know) is that the past has no relevance as in order to be successful the here and now is what matters, not the past. I thought it reasonable that readers would also realize this and understand my comment! No matter what behavior is reflected in the chart, nobody, except someone manipulating that market, can know with any semblance of certainty whether the next tick will be up or down and therefore a trend continuation or the begining of a reversal. And there is the basis of my comment!
Based on the previous paragraph, it shouldn't be to hard to deduce my observations on TA/Indicators as generally these are based on past ( of no relevance) charts/volume.
Once again I advocate clear objective thinking rather than subjective wishful thinking!
Good Trading!
Many thanks John1 - As a reader, I understand that you believe that past price action has no bearing on the future. Its just that I don't agree with it. It seems very clear to most people that support and resistance, the fundamental demonstrations of the behaviour of market participants - who DO have a memory of price and DO know at what price they entered / exited a given instrument, such that this IS likely to influence their future behaviour towards the instrument - and these being the unseen building blocks of most clear chart patterns - DO have an influence on future price behaviour.
I think your stricture that there needs to be a semblance of certainty is too harsh - whatever method is used to time / place an entry / exit, it can only be based on probability, and talk of certainty is a redf herring. Any tick can be a reversal, or mererly a congestion move preceding continuation, but, to my konowldege, there is no methodology, TA or otherwise that will eliminate this doubt.
I don't dispute that it is possible to trade successfully WITHOUT charts, and I said so very early in this thread. Its just that I cannot accept it is impossible to trade successfully WITH charts.
I think your stricture that there needs to be a semblance of certainty is too harsh - whatever method is used to time / place an entry / exit, it can only be based on probability, and talk of certainty is a redf herring. Any tick can be a reversal, or mererly a congestion move preceding continuation, but, to my konowldege, there is no methodology, TA or otherwise that will eliminate this doubt.
I don't dispute that it is possible to trade successfully WITHOUT charts, and I said so very early in this thread. Its just that I cannot accept it is impossible to trade successfully WITH charts.
Trader333
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In my view if you have an instrument trending in MTF then there is a high statistical probability that it will continue to trend. A likely reversal in all TF being observed on the next tick is extremely low and as such historical prices are of significance. To say that the price history is not relevant does not make sense to me and many traders I know use key support and resistance levels with price action to trade profitably on a consistent basis. To me the alternative is random price entry.
Paul
Paul
Hi,
It would be unrealistic for me to say that chart reading/ Indicators cannot be profitable, but rather that I'm yet to know anyone personally, myself included, ( where I can verify ) who has made consistant major money using only traditional chart reading and /or Indicators in the 15 years I've been at this. It takes a far greater understanding of the particular markets' behavior, this I suggest gives the edge that makes the difference, even if the particular person were to scream "charts, PA, indicators or any number of other approaches as their reason for success.
One of the things I enjoy about the markets is that at some point we all get to take responsibility for our choices!
Mate, you've just got to love capitalism!
Trader333, how many times have you seen a break-out where many people jump on just in time to see the move reverse and rocket the other way. Everything, charts, indicators,PA, etc was saying hop aboard yet you got your butt handed to you? You can argue - tight stops - but there's a recipe to die a death of a thousand cuts with a reduction in the number of trades or increased risk, then again try wide stops, suddenly the RR starts to look like 2-1, 3-1 against or worse, another recipe for disaster, but at least you won't have to suffer the thousand cuts as it will be over quickly. Don't worry we've all been there myself included, the important question is " how long do you want to stay there", only you can decide.
To be perfectly clear here,I'm not offering anything more than my comments.
Ultimately the markets are a war zone, do whatever you need to win, increase you account balance, as long as it's done legally there are no comebacks. Somebody mentioned scalping in an earlier comment, having been a full time screen slave in the past I can't think of an approach that I would find more distasteful, but once again each to their own.
Good Trading
Yeah i agree, my belief is that the technique isn't important. If someone has built up ideas of how the market works or has a system or as you say understands the behavior of the market that i think is more important than any "technique"/"method", or whatever you want to call it. It just so happens that my beliefs present TA as a good technique for me. But again i would say, TA is profitable, which is really meaningless looking at what i have said above.
I don't know anyone who is successful without using TA in some form (i'm not as experienced) but i don't see that as a reliable outlook for what does and doesn't work. I think for every person i know there are hundreds more people making double, using something i think is ridiculous such as astrology or whatever.
I don't know anyone who is successful without using TA in some form (i'm not as experienced) but i don't see that as a reliable outlook for what does and doesn't work. I think for every person i know there are hundreds more people making double, using something i think is ridiculous such as astrology or whatever.
Hi,
You probably noticed my reference to "traditional charting/ TA", there was a reason. I have developed and run over the years various proprietry mathematical models to trade off that might loosely be termed a form of TA at a stretch of the imagination, although not derived from price charts or indicators as these have a major tendancy to fail at the most inconvenient times.
Good Trading
Trader333
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In my view this depends on which timeframe is being traded relative to the next one up and what the position size is relative to the volatility of the market being traded. I wasn't talking about breakouts but that trends rarely start the very next tick in all timeframes at once.
I don't disagree that charts are not needed but to say that they are useless is not how I see it. In view of you not using charts then how do you decided when and how to take a trade ?
Paul
counter_violent
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Some excellent posts there John1.....
The problem with any discussions on trading is one of degrees of knowledge....and until members have sufficient years and realizations under their belts, then they won't have the foggiest scooby doo what you are talking about.
The problem with any discussions on trading is one of degrees of knowledge....and until members have sufficient years and realizations under their belts, then they won't have the foggiest scooby doo what you are talking about.
Hi Trader333,
I have already answered your question in my post #74. However, before I step back I will make one more observation, "the market virtually always telegraphs it's intentions, but this vital information cannot be found with traditional price charts or traditional indicators".
Good Trading
Hi Tomorton,
I would just like to make some final comments in reply before I move on.
Regarding paragraph 1 - If the vast majority advocate charts and/or indicators and/or TA and 80-90% lose in the markets, wouldn't this outcome lead a rational person to suspect that something was not right? Aiming to be better than the vast majority at employing an overwhelmingly unsuccessful approach seems to me to be a strange ambition, but then again each to their own. Wouldn't it be smarter to feed of the 80-90% rather than compete with them for some dubious outome. The points that you make regarding market memory are not advantages but rather their weaknesses to be exploited. When in the wild does a preditor pull down the strongest prey, they in fact look for the weakest prey because that is where safety lies? Think about what happens to an animal that keeps returning to the same watering hole at the same time each day, he usually becomes dinner in short order! Trust me on this, I am well aware of perceived market memory, PA, TA and any number of other approaches.
Regarding paragraph 2 re knowledge - I'm reminded of a movie about 2 pool sharks where the old shark teaches the young one how to play better and eventually he wants to take on the old player. After the match as the old player collects his winnings he turns to the young player and says " just because I taught you everything you know, it didn't mean that I taught you everthing that I know"! The implication and insight of this comment should be obvious.
Regarding paragraph 3 - If you follow the implications of my previous comments you should realize whether you or I believe it possible to make money from charts is of no relevence whatsoever. But rather that you should be concentrating on using the chartists weaknesses to your advantage. How can you trade against the herd if you are running with them?
The surest method will place you next to the herd when they are right and on the other side of their trades when they are wrong! If you ever wonder who is on the other side of your trades when you are wrong I can assure you that it is probably me or someone just like me and when you are right we will have usually entered well before you, that I know for a fact, simply from what you have told me!
There is a vast array of knowledge and concepual thinking that is required, to much to be discussed at this time so I will leave you with one other thought.
Once again I advocate clear objective thinking rather than subjective wishful thinking!
Good Trading
cpngtw
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The above conclusion is not correct.
Yes, majority (retail traders) use charts & TA.
Yes, 90% of them (retail traders) lose in the markets.
But NO, that doesn't mean charts & TA are unsuccessful (or bad) approaches.
That logic is a big flaw. Reasons:
1/ Do they know how to use charts & TA correctly?
2/ Charts & TA contribute to AT MOST 30% of a trader's success, the others are psychology + money management, which take > 50%. Most failed due to the other 2 more than TA or Charts
I don't mean you are not able to trade without charts. Some are doing that successfully (or seem like that). But saying charts & TA are wrong is .... wrong :cheesy:
