Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
EURUSD
in a pivot area
in a pivot area
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Naz 100
Ya tried to fake us.....We saw ya
Ya tried to fake us.....We saw ya
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
its back in that wodge of support...for a rethink...lol
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
A quick look at UJ
C
cantagril
Gieves, Gieves! I feel that the quality of your performance is waning as you sink further into your dotage. I broke fast before dawn and have already whipped most of the outdoors staff, so am suitably refreshed and ready for the divertissements of the day
Which leads me neatly to EG. I'm not rabidly bullish and I'd be more than happy with a lunge to around .90. I would agree that in the longer term there's more potential but I think that's going to have more to do with deterioration in the UK than the EU's stellar progress
As for CAC. I'm well immersed atm and though I'm confident that at some point fairly soon, there's going to be some upside fairly well correlated to the Dax, the sheer number and variety of potential triggers makes me think that we'll probably go sideways until enough pundits have agreed on their preferred scapegoat....then again, there's always Trump......
Last edited by a moderator:
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Heavily front loaded data schedule has China Trade and inflation data,
Japan Q2 GDP revision and Norway CPI to digest ahead of rash of UK
activity indicators; Sweden election deadlock also to digest
- UK GDP et al: services expected to pace monthly GDP gain, manufacturing
seen flat, reactive correction likely in Construction; Trade deficit
seen widening marginally
- China CPI/PPI: food prices continue to pressure CPI, though consumer
goods prices also picking up; PPI as yet not evidencing any major
impact from weaker CNY or trade tensions
- Chart: China CPI and components
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A heavily front-loaded day in terms of statistics with the weekend China Trade and overnight CPI/PPI along with the upward revision to Japan Q2 GDP and Norwegian CPI to digest ahead of a raft of UK activity data: monthly GDP, Index of Services, Trade and Industrial Production, with only US Consumer Credit to ponder thereafter. Politically there is the stalemate / gridlock election outcome in Sweden, which saw the far right Sweden Democrats making some gains, leaving the traditional left and right blocks neck and neck, and some form of minority govt again looking likely, though negotiations will only commence, once final results (once postal and international votes have been counted) are published on Wednesday. While this hardly bodes well for the sort of reforms which would head off the drift to the far-right, it is providing some solace for the SEK (see EUR/SEK chart). The events schedule is otherwise sparse, though those seemingly eternal overarching themes of politics and trade tensions remain reliable tape bomb providers, with the focus on the threat of a further $263 Bln of US tariffs on China. The week's busy run of US Treasury supply gets under way with the 'usual' $90 Bln of 3 & 6 month T-Bills, with coupon supply (3, 10 & 30 yr) kicking off tomorrow, for which the higher than expected wages data has fashioned something of a concession; however it will be hedging activity related to corporate credit supply that may be key to short-term Treasury market, after last week saw the highest volume of USD IG issuance of the year, bloated of course by the more than $20 Bln of Cigna M&A related issuance.
** U.K. - July GDP / Index of Services / Industrial Production / Trade **
July monthly GDP is seen up 0.1% m/m, though the 3-month pace is projected to pick up to 0.5% q/q, mirroring expected strength in the Index of Services (f'cast at an unchanged 0.5% q/q. Manufacturing Output is expected to lose momentum dropping to just 0.1% m/m from 0.4%, that would edge the y/y rate down to 1.4%, while Construction Output is forecast to see a modest payback for May & June's strong 2.9% and 1.4% m/m, with a 0.5% decline. The Visible Trade Balance is seen widening fractionally to £-11.7 Bln from £-11.4 Bln, which in trend terms would suggest that the narrowing in Q1 was more a function of weak growth, in no small part predicated by bad weather, than indicating a trend change. As previously noted, current data are to a certain extent given the big unknown of the Brexit negotiations outcome.
** China - August CPI, PPI & Trade **
- In terms of China's Trade data, the focus will inevitably fall on the fresh record trade surplus with the US ($31.05 Bln), particularly given Trump's latest threats. Be that as it may, Exports slowed broadly as expected to a still solid 9.8% y/y (July 12.2%), while Imports at 20.0% beat the forecast of 17.7%, with some evidence that front-loading of exports, and some pre-emptive boosts to imports on the back of threatened tariffs continues to distort the data, but still overall signalling a healthy pace of growth. Today's inflation data were slightly higher than expected, though still divergent in trend terms. In respect of CPI, Food prices (1.7% y/y vs. July 0.5%) again accounted for much of the upward pressure, with the unwind of base effects in Pork prices (rather more than any African Swine Fever effect, which will exercise further upward pressure going forward) accounting for much of the move. That said, a closer eye needs to be kept on Non-food prices which ticked up to 2.5% y/y from 2.4%, paced above all by Consumer Goods (2.1% y/y vs. 1.8%). PPI continued to drift lower (4.1% y/y vs forecast 4.0%, July 4.6%), with weaker commodity prices offsetting any immediate impact of the CNY's fall, and no real evidence of any Tarde tariff related pressures, though both of these will likely exercise upward pressure going forward.
From Marc Ostwald
Japan Q2 GDP revision and Norway CPI to digest ahead of rash of UK
activity indicators; Sweden election deadlock also to digest
- UK GDP et al: services expected to pace monthly GDP gain, manufacturing
seen flat, reactive correction likely in Construction; Trade deficit
seen widening marginally
- China CPI/PPI: food prices continue to pressure CPI, though consumer
goods prices also picking up; PPI as yet not evidencing any major
impact from weaker CNY or trade tensions
- Chart: China CPI and components
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
A heavily front-loaded day in terms of statistics with the weekend China Trade and overnight CPI/PPI along with the upward revision to Japan Q2 GDP and Norwegian CPI to digest ahead of a raft of UK activity data: monthly GDP, Index of Services, Trade and Industrial Production, with only US Consumer Credit to ponder thereafter. Politically there is the stalemate / gridlock election outcome in Sweden, which saw the far right Sweden Democrats making some gains, leaving the traditional left and right blocks neck and neck, and some form of minority govt again looking likely, though negotiations will only commence, once final results (once postal and international votes have been counted) are published on Wednesday. While this hardly bodes well for the sort of reforms which would head off the drift to the far-right, it is providing some solace for the SEK (see EUR/SEK chart). The events schedule is otherwise sparse, though those seemingly eternal overarching themes of politics and trade tensions remain reliable tape bomb providers, with the focus on the threat of a further $263 Bln of US tariffs on China. The week's busy run of US Treasury supply gets under way with the 'usual' $90 Bln of 3 & 6 month T-Bills, with coupon supply (3, 10 & 30 yr) kicking off tomorrow, for which the higher than expected wages data has fashioned something of a concession; however it will be hedging activity related to corporate credit supply that may be key to short-term Treasury market, after last week saw the highest volume of USD IG issuance of the year, bloated of course by the more than $20 Bln of Cigna M&A related issuance.
** U.K. - July GDP / Index of Services / Industrial Production / Trade **
July monthly GDP is seen up 0.1% m/m, though the 3-month pace is projected to pick up to 0.5% q/q, mirroring expected strength in the Index of Services (f'cast at an unchanged 0.5% q/q. Manufacturing Output is expected to lose momentum dropping to just 0.1% m/m from 0.4%, that would edge the y/y rate down to 1.4%, while Construction Output is forecast to see a modest payback for May & June's strong 2.9% and 1.4% m/m, with a 0.5% decline. The Visible Trade Balance is seen widening fractionally to £-11.7 Bln from £-11.4 Bln, which in trend terms would suggest that the narrowing in Q1 was more a function of weak growth, in no small part predicated by bad weather, than indicating a trend change. As previously noted, current data are to a certain extent given the big unknown of the Brexit negotiations outcome.
** China - August CPI, PPI & Trade **
- In terms of China's Trade data, the focus will inevitably fall on the fresh record trade surplus with the US ($31.05 Bln), particularly given Trump's latest threats. Be that as it may, Exports slowed broadly as expected to a still solid 9.8% y/y (July 12.2%), while Imports at 20.0% beat the forecast of 17.7%, with some evidence that front-loading of exports, and some pre-emptive boosts to imports on the back of threatened tariffs continues to distort the data, but still overall signalling a healthy pace of growth. Today's inflation data were slightly higher than expected, though still divergent in trend terms. In respect of CPI, Food prices (1.7% y/y vs. July 0.5%) again accounted for much of the upward pressure, with the unwind of base effects in Pork prices (rather more than any African Swine Fever effect, which will exercise further upward pressure going forward) accounting for much of the move. That said, a closer eye needs to be kept on Non-food prices which ticked up to 2.5% y/y from 2.4%, paced above all by Consumer Goods (2.1% y/y vs. 1.8%). PPI continued to drift lower (4.1% y/y vs forecast 4.0%, July 4.6%), with weaker commodity prices offsetting any immediate impact of the CNY's fall, and no real evidence of any Tarde tariff related pressures, though both of these will likely exercise upward pressure going forward.
From Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Gieves, Gieves! I feel that the quality of your performance is waning as you sink further into your dotage. I broke fast before dawn and have already whipped most of the outdoors staff, so am suitably refreshed and ready for the divertissements of the day
Which leads me neatly to EG. I'm not rabidly bullish and I'd be more than happy with a lunge to around .90. I would agree that in the longer term there's more potential but I think that's going to have more to do with deterioration in the UK more than the EU's stellar progress
As for CAC. I'm well immersed atm and though I'm confident that at some point fairly soon, there's going to be some upside fairly well correlated to the Dax, the sheer number and variety of potential triggers makes me think that we'll probably go sideways until enough pundits have agreed on their preferred scapegoat....then again, there's always Trump......
M"Lud
You are getting senile...Its Jeeves.....Gieves is your tailor
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Naz 100
seems to be important supp area looming
seems to be important supp area looming
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
SPX
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
SPX
bulls still not had a real test..So far just bounced off prev supp area
the real biggy is that trend supp area
rez could be anywhere
so far ...looks like sell rallies until we get more clarity....but bulls could be there hiding
needs to test 2850 area
bulls still not had a real test..So far just bounced off prev supp area
the real biggy is that trend supp area
rez could be anywhere
so far ...looks like sell rallies until we get more clarity....but bulls could be there hiding
needs to test 2850 area
C
cantagril
Now around .8952. Stop at +1 - bit tight but the UK numbers came in better than I was expecting. My .90 target looking optimistic in the short term.
C
cantagril
C
cantagril
Long EG .8913 Av now .8932
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Cable
poss a minor top
NFP spike a tad confusing
updated
we had 68.20 as rez marked last week
excellent stuff
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
dropped below our trendline
it is only a "rough "trendline...not really valid...only a guide
poss rally to test the line.and a tad above
updated
tested the trendline from below...and dump
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
Cable
poss a minor top
NFP spike a tad confusing
Ha ha...not the cable chart
updated cable
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
we said some time ago that cable was "buy the dips"
thought it had a top...so did not trade it.......lol
thought it had a top...so did not trade it.......lol
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
