Dentalfloss
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potential trap area marked
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
Dentalfloss
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on the latest bar...seems to be holding as support...approx 11930
Dentalfloss
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close up
Dentalfloss
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12K...a poss brick wall/marked
Dentalfloss
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Ostwald, Marc
16:38 (12 minutes ago)
to Marc
The Week Ahead - Preview: 10 to 14 September 2018
- If politics and trade tensions are not to reassert themselves as the key drivers and once again relegate economic data to a subordinate role, then this week's deluge of data from the US, China and the UK will need to spring some surprises, following the higher than expected US Average Hourly Earnings data in the US labour report. Central bank events are reasonably plentiful with ECB and BoE policy meetings, the Fed's Beige Book, a goodly volume of central bank speakers, and in the EM space, policy meetings in both Turkey and Russia. Govt bond supply is dominated by the USA and Italy, while Oil markets have the OPEC and IEA monthly Oil Market Reports to contend with, with corporate earnings relatively sparse. Politically there will be the result of the Swedish general election on Sunday to digest, as well as the evergreen themes of Trump's beleaguered coterie, trade tensions, Brexit and Italian budget negotiations, along with escalating tensions in the Idlib region of Syria.
- A bumper week for major data from the US (Retail Sales, CPI, PPI, Industrial Production), China (Trade, CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, FAI, Industrial Production & FX Reserves, M2) and UK (monthly GDP, labour data, Industrial Production, Construction Output & Trade), along with Japan Orders & revised Q2 GDP. For the US, CPI and Retail Sales will contend for top billing, with CPI seen up 0.3% m/m 2.8% y/y (vs July 0.2/2.9%) and core CPI 0.2% m/m 2.4% y/y (vs July 0.2/2.4%), which would likely be interpreted by some as signalling inflation is peaking at levels, which do not put any pressure on the FOMC to up the pace of rate hikes, though reinforce the case for further 'gradual increases'. PPI also bears some scrutiny given the 'sticky' ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid, and is forecast at 0.2% m/m headline & core, which would see y/y rates little change at 3.2% and 2.7%. As for Retail Sales, the strong start to Q3 seen across all measures in July is expected to be reprised in August (headline 0.5% m/m, ex-Autos 0.6% and core 0.4%), with a very strong run of weekly Redbook Sales perhaps suggesting some upside risks. Industrial Production is forecast to pick up from July's 0.1% to 0.3% m/m, with Manufacturing Output seen at 0.4% from July's 0.3%, though the risks appear to be to the downside given a flat m/m reading for Manufacturing hours in the labour data, which also saw a 3K drop in Manufacturing payrolls. NFIB Small Business Optimism, JOLTS Job Openings, both Inventories series and Michigan Sentiment are also set for release.
China's trade data have been volatile for much of this year, with an array of curbs and trade tariff related disruptions advising considerable caution when interpreting their publication tomorrow. As for China's PPI and CPI, the former will be scrutinized for any impact from the CNY's sharp fall vs the USD since the end of Q2, though forecasts assume that very benign base effects as last year's Q3 jump unwinds will offset any such pressures, with headline seen at 4.0% y/y from 4.6%; for CPI the question is whether the outbreak of African Swine Flu is starting to accelerate the unwind of steep decline in Pork prices seen for much of the year, and whether there is any evidence that Non-Food Prices are starting to pick up, as perhaps hinted by the July data. As for the activity indicators, Retail Sales are projected to be unchanged at 8.8% y/y, in other words stable at relatively subdued levels by any historical standard, even though anecdotal evidence suggests overall Personal Consumption has been robust, though perhaps led more by services. FAI and Industrial Production are both forecast to pick up modestly to 5.7% and 6.2% y/y respectively, with a close needing to be kept on Private Sector FAI, which appears to be plateauing even decelerating after a solid H1. Monetary Aggregates are also due with lending in focus.
UK economic surveys have been very mixed, with Services showing some strength, but Manufacturing tailing off and the rebound in Construction apparently short-lived. July monthly GDP is seen up 0.1% m/m, though the 3-month pace is projected to pick up to 0.5% q/q, mirroring expected strength in the Index of Services (f'cast at an unchanged 0.5% q/q. Manufacturing Output is expected to lose momentum dropping to just 0.1% m/m from 0.4%, that would edge the y/y rate down to 1.4%, while Construction Output is forecast to see a modest payback for May & June's strong 2.9% and 1.4% m/m, with a 0.5% decline. For all that the BoE continues to assume that wage growth will accelerate, the evidence theretofore in Average Hourly Earnings has been absent, and a modest 0.1 ppt uptick to 2.5% y/y headline and ex-Bonus 2.8% y/y is anticipated, and Employment growth is expected to continue to stall with a flat 3mth/3mth reading seen after a much weaker than expected +42k in June.
- The ECB meeting is unlikely and not expected to deliver any fireworks on the policy outlook, though it will see a fresh round of quarterly staff economic forecasts. The press conference may indeed be hijacked by questions on Italy (and perhaps Greece), the speculation about Draghi's successor, and while the council will doubtless express optimism on the economic outlook, it will again stress that trade tensions are a very material downside risk, with recent German manufacturing and trade data implying that these may already be starting to crystallize. As for the BoE, this is a non-inflation report meeting, and with Carney and his MPC colleagues having just testified on policy this week, it appears unlikely that the statement and minutes of the meeting will offer much in the way of fresh insights into the policy outlook. The Fed's Beige Book should in principle continue to paint a picture of an economy growing robustly. In the EM space, Turkey's TCMB has promised to deliver a forceful tightening after another abject set of inflation readings, and persistent pressure on the TRY, with the consensus looking for a 325 bps rate hike to 21.0% on the benchmark 1-week repo Rate, anything less will compound the TRY's woes. Russia's Bank Rossi is seen holding rates at 7.25%, with monetary policy chief Zobotkin sounding less than hawkish when he spoke this week, though conceding that if inflation does appear to be accelerating to beyond 4.0% by year end due to the latest bout of sanction related RUB weakness, then some policy tightening will be needed, a sentiment also echoed by governor Nabiullina on Thursday. Peru's central bank is seen holding rates at 2.75%.
- Govt bond supply takes the shape of $73 Bln of 3,10 & 30- yr US Treasuries and ca. $181 Bln of of T-bills, while market estimates suggest Italy will EUR 7.0-8.0 Bln of BTPs on Thursday. There are also smaller (ca EUR 1.0 Bln) long dated sales in Netherlands (2037) and Germany (2048), and a similar sized total of 5 & 10-yr from Portugal, while the UK Offers £2.5 Bln of 2049 conventional Gilts. Corporate supply should also be seasonally typically plentiful.
- There are a number of high level political meetings, including one between Russia's Putin and China's Xi, and Putin also meets with Japan PM Abe.
==============================================================
from Marc Ostwald
16:38 (12 minutes ago)
to Marc
The Week Ahead - Preview: 10 to 14 September 2018
- If politics and trade tensions are not to reassert themselves as the key drivers and once again relegate economic data to a subordinate role, then this week's deluge of data from the US, China and the UK will need to spring some surprises, following the higher than expected US Average Hourly Earnings data in the US labour report. Central bank events are reasonably plentiful with ECB and BoE policy meetings, the Fed's Beige Book, a goodly volume of central bank speakers, and in the EM space, policy meetings in both Turkey and Russia. Govt bond supply is dominated by the USA and Italy, while Oil markets have the OPEC and IEA monthly Oil Market Reports to contend with, with corporate earnings relatively sparse. Politically there will be the result of the Swedish general election on Sunday to digest, as well as the evergreen themes of Trump's beleaguered coterie, trade tensions, Brexit and Italian budget negotiations, along with escalating tensions in the Idlib region of Syria.
- A bumper week for major data from the US (Retail Sales, CPI, PPI, Industrial Production), China (Trade, CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, FAI, Industrial Production & FX Reserves, M2) and UK (monthly GDP, labour data, Industrial Production, Construction Output & Trade), along with Japan Orders & revised Q2 GDP. For the US, CPI and Retail Sales will contend for top billing, with CPI seen up 0.3% m/m 2.8% y/y (vs July 0.2/2.9%) and core CPI 0.2% m/m 2.4% y/y (vs July 0.2/2.4%), which would likely be interpreted by some as signalling inflation is peaking at levels, which do not put any pressure on the FOMC to up the pace of rate hikes, though reinforce the case for further 'gradual increases'. PPI also bears some scrutiny given the 'sticky' ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid, and is forecast at 0.2% m/m headline & core, which would see y/y rates little change at 3.2% and 2.7%. As for Retail Sales, the strong start to Q3 seen across all measures in July is expected to be reprised in August (headline 0.5% m/m, ex-Autos 0.6% and core 0.4%), with a very strong run of weekly Redbook Sales perhaps suggesting some upside risks. Industrial Production is forecast to pick up from July's 0.1% to 0.3% m/m, with Manufacturing Output seen at 0.4% from July's 0.3%, though the risks appear to be to the downside given a flat m/m reading for Manufacturing hours in the labour data, which also saw a 3K drop in Manufacturing payrolls. NFIB Small Business Optimism, JOLTS Job Openings, both Inventories series and Michigan Sentiment are also set for release.
China's trade data have been volatile for much of this year, with an array of curbs and trade tariff related disruptions advising considerable caution when interpreting their publication tomorrow. As for China's PPI and CPI, the former will be scrutinized for any impact from the CNY's sharp fall vs the USD since the end of Q2, though forecasts assume that very benign base effects as last year's Q3 jump unwinds will offset any such pressures, with headline seen at 4.0% y/y from 4.6%; for CPI the question is whether the outbreak of African Swine Flu is starting to accelerate the unwind of steep decline in Pork prices seen for much of the year, and whether there is any evidence that Non-Food Prices are starting to pick up, as perhaps hinted by the July data. As for the activity indicators, Retail Sales are projected to be unchanged at 8.8% y/y, in other words stable at relatively subdued levels by any historical standard, even though anecdotal evidence suggests overall Personal Consumption has been robust, though perhaps led more by services. FAI and Industrial Production are both forecast to pick up modestly to 5.7% and 6.2% y/y respectively, with a close needing to be kept on Private Sector FAI, which appears to be plateauing even decelerating after a solid H1. Monetary Aggregates are also due with lending in focus.
UK economic surveys have been very mixed, with Services showing some strength, but Manufacturing tailing off and the rebound in Construction apparently short-lived. July monthly GDP is seen up 0.1% m/m, though the 3-month pace is projected to pick up to 0.5% q/q, mirroring expected strength in the Index of Services (f'cast at an unchanged 0.5% q/q. Manufacturing Output is expected to lose momentum dropping to just 0.1% m/m from 0.4%, that would edge the y/y rate down to 1.4%, while Construction Output is forecast to see a modest payback for May & June's strong 2.9% and 1.4% m/m, with a 0.5% decline. For all that the BoE continues to assume that wage growth will accelerate, the evidence theretofore in Average Hourly Earnings has been absent, and a modest 0.1 ppt uptick to 2.5% y/y headline and ex-Bonus 2.8% y/y is anticipated, and Employment growth is expected to continue to stall with a flat 3mth/3mth reading seen after a much weaker than expected +42k in June.
- The ECB meeting is unlikely and not expected to deliver any fireworks on the policy outlook, though it will see a fresh round of quarterly staff economic forecasts. The press conference may indeed be hijacked by questions on Italy (and perhaps Greece), the speculation about Draghi's successor, and while the council will doubtless express optimism on the economic outlook, it will again stress that trade tensions are a very material downside risk, with recent German manufacturing and trade data implying that these may already be starting to crystallize. As for the BoE, this is a non-inflation report meeting, and with Carney and his MPC colleagues having just testified on policy this week, it appears unlikely that the statement and minutes of the meeting will offer much in the way of fresh insights into the policy outlook. The Fed's Beige Book should in principle continue to paint a picture of an economy growing robustly. In the EM space, Turkey's TCMB has promised to deliver a forceful tightening after another abject set of inflation readings, and persistent pressure on the TRY, with the consensus looking for a 325 bps rate hike to 21.0% on the benchmark 1-week repo Rate, anything less will compound the TRY's woes. Russia's Bank Rossi is seen holding rates at 7.25%, with monetary policy chief Zobotkin sounding less than hawkish when he spoke this week, though conceding that if inflation does appear to be accelerating to beyond 4.0% by year end due to the latest bout of sanction related RUB weakness, then some policy tightening will be needed, a sentiment also echoed by governor Nabiullina on Thursday. Peru's central bank is seen holding rates at 2.75%.
- Govt bond supply takes the shape of $73 Bln of 3,10 & 30- yr US Treasuries and ca. $181 Bln of of T-bills, while market estimates suggest Italy will EUR 7.0-8.0 Bln of BTPs on Thursday. There are also smaller (ca EUR 1.0 Bln) long dated sales in Netherlands (2037) and Germany (2048), and a similar sized total of 5 & 10-yr from Portugal, while the UK Offers £2.5 Bln of 2049 conventional Gilts. Corporate supply should also be seasonally typically plentiful.
- There are a number of high level political meetings, including one between Russia's Putin and China's Xi, and Putin also meets with Japan PM Abe.
==============================================================
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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Dentalfloss
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BUT
on the wider horizon...it has retraced into the trap area
on the wider horizon...it has retraced into the trap area
Dentalfloss
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Naz 100
updated
it was a tiny bit below the line...later chart shows it hit
tested our line...and dumped
excellent stuff
Dentalfloss
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whacked
Dentalfloss
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original chart posted at 4.07pm
line hit at 4.35pm
line hit at 4.35pm
Dentalfloss
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Bulls got trapped at the downtrendline
Dentalfloss
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close up
Dentalfloss
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Dow could be playing catch up with Naz and spx
tank below 25800
tank below 25800
Dentalfloss
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Trump firing off again
Dentalfloss
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are you waiting for specific level or just scalping..??
Dentalfloss
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tariffs
