Ostwald, Marc
08:51 (8 minutes ago)
to Marc
- UK labour data tops modest day for statistics; German ZEW & US NFIB surveys,
US JOLTs Job Openings also due; ECB's Nouy and Riksbank speakers; Dutch,
UK and US govt bond auctions
- UK Average Weekly Earnings: marginal uptick expected, real wages seen flat,
no signs as yet of BoE's anticipated rise in wages
- UK Employment growth expected to stall, depsite record level of vacancies,
skills shortages in evidence?
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** EVENTS PREVIEW **
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Today's run of data and surveys are unlikely to leave markets quaking in their boots, perhaps all the more so given the Jewish (Day 2) and Islamic New Year holidays, let alone the overarching themes of political and trade risks (with the emphasis on actual, rather than percevied). On the schedule are the UK labour market data, the market sensitive, but "so tell me something I don't know" German ZEW survey, along with US NFIB Small Business Optimsim and JOLTS Job Openings. Those hoping for some inspiration from the events schedule will likely be disappointed, though following the 'disruptive' gains for the Sweden Democrats in their election, the EU parliament's debate on (EU) sanctions on Hungary should spawn a deluge of biased, ill informed opinion that in the bigger picture merely highlights just how dysfucntionalso-called political 'debate' has become. Otherwise there is a smattering of Riksbank speak, which should help to identify which committee member favour an inital hike in December over February; outgoing ECB banking supervisor Nouy aslo speaks; and there are bond auctions in the UK (30-yr), Netherlands (20-yr) and the US (3-yr).
** U.K. - July/August Unemployment / Average Hourly Earnings **
- Following on from the better than expected July GDP (3-mth /3-mth 0.6% q/q; led by Services and Construction with Construction a drag), attention turns today to labour market indicators. For all that the BoE continues to assume / suggest that UK wage growth will accelerate, the evidence theretofore in Average Hourly Earnings has been absent, and a modest 0.1 ppt uptick to 2.5% y/y headline (i.e. zero in inflation adjusted terms) and ex-Bonus 2.8% y/y is forecast. A much closer eye now needs to be kept on Employment growth, which is expected to continue to stall with a +9K 3mth/3mth reading seen after a much weaker than expected +42k in June, even though Vacancies are close to their all-time highs (though this is not an extensive data series), which implies skills shortages are becoming ever more acute.
from Marc Ostwald