Trading with point and figure

SPX into the open

2dqvhc8.png

our rez worked well today
 
fwiw I thought I saw SPX possibly making a dash for 2760s this morning but as you say 2740s got rejected.


PP-S3 @ 2768
PP-S2 @ 2755
PP-S1 @ 2737

Have a sneaky feeling it will attempt it again on pretence of some ultra good news.



our rez worked well today
 
Buenas Dias!...for some, anyway:p

Sorry for the Colombians that all their rough stuff just wasted time and didn't get them anywhere and then that it was just skill that got them their goal.....and finally getting stuffed on penalties...bit like trading really.....

Anyway, per ardua ad nauseam:

EG just trying to get away for the .8830 area support. Not in there as I'm doubtful. Chart bearish, me ditherish.
 

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EG on the 1 minute.

I've put a buy order in at .8805 Target .8850
 

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Meanwhile, the CAC is living up to its fearsome reputation and gyrating wildly in a range of almost a dozen pips!!!:p

Chart bullish. Looking to buy around 5280 again.
 

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US Independence day holiday set to subdue trading volumes, as rebound
in BRC Shop Prices and broadly very positive run of Asia Services
PMIs are digested ahead of Eurozone and UK readings

- Services PMIs: echoing run of generally better than expected
Manufacturing PMIs, risks likely upside for Italy and UK

- USD Credit: steady though stealthy widening in IG spreads worth
contemplating

- Charts: US IG, HY & EM yield spreads, China Financial Corporate Foreign
Currency Debt

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

It's the US Independence Day holiday, and as such market trading volumes are likely to be very subdued. The schedule of data and events is also relatively meagre, with Services PMIs in Asia and Europe the only highlight of the data calendar, as the UK BRC Shop Price Index (corroborating BoE MPC view that inflation is set to rebound) is digested. On the central bank front, there are regulation related speeches from a couple of Bank of England officials, while the consensus looks for no change at the central bank policy meeting in Romania, though with CPI at a very lofty 5.4% y/y in May, the case for another 25 bps rate hike to 2.75% looks to be fairly strong, given that the NBR still looks to be fairly far behind the curve (even if that has been its clear intention for a protracted period). On a quieter day, and with Q3 getting under way, it is worth looking over the attached charts on USD corporate spreads, which highlights the extent to which IG corporate debt has been steadily widening, along with a very unsurprising widening EM spreads predicated on the broad based weakness in EM currencies, by contrast while HY spreads have widened recently, the trend is rather more sideways and choppy. IG spreads seems destined to widen further due to a combination of factors: a) the rise in 'risk free' short-dated US Treasury yields that undermines the case for chasing the relatively modest yield pick-up in IG corporate yields; b) the rise in jumbo M&A related issuance; and c) the fact that the Fed's balance sheet reduction programme is now running at $40 Bln / month, while US Treasury issuance has risen sharply.

** Asia/Europe - June Services PMIs **
- Services PMI in Europe are generally seen edging higher, which follows on from an impressive run of readings out of Asia, with Australia's AiG Services PMI surging to a record high, India's Services PMI finally showing some signs of regaining the traction it lost after the introduction of the GST, and China's Caixin Services PMI mirroring the solid NBS reading. Sweden (59.8 vs May 57.0) and Ireland (59.5 vs. 59.3) suggest that the strength seen in the 'flash' readings in France and Germany should also be seen in Italy (where the Manufacturing PMI surprised on the upside) and Spain, while the better than expected UK Construction PMI implies the Services PMI may well edge above February's 6-month high of 54.5, against expectations of an unchanged 54.0. Overall this does start to lean quite heavily against the narrative of a rapid loss of momentum in Europe that has prevailed for much of the year, and in the UK would reinforce expectations that the BoE will opt to hike rates again in August. This is not to say the myriad of political and trade headwinds are not a genuine threat to the global growth outlook, but does imply that the underlying momentum in the global economy is notably better than the current market narrative suggests.

From Marc Ostwald
 
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