Dentalfloss
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Atilla is right about downside movement...could be bumpy
Trading with point and figure
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Atilla
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Morning chaps 
Sentiment is the same as yours i.e. no confidence in upward move even if it does materialise.
Some strong-errr numbers in PMI but wot with oil and trump and Iran and the brexit and the tariffs, feel we are in a right pickle. Market is resilient to all of it to say the least but given the long run - for how long is the big question.
Lots of twitching imo. Favour short bias on SPX long time frames short, short TF do take long positions.
Today I'm looking at a test of 2739. Tops 2760s. Will be looking for more shorting opportunities - unless Trump backs down on his tariff threats. Here are Woodies PP levels. PPoint around 2720 has been visited so many times not really going very far to either side. Been relatively good recently and well behaved. Bias towards shorts. https://uk.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures-technical
On Cable there is optimism of a softening Brexit deal/stance or whatevarrrr so pound strengthening somewhat. Might just make it to 1.34. So bullish on that. But then again, there is always the White Cliffs of Dover otherwise.
I'm also positive on European markets. Come what may, feel they stand to benefit more than US or the Asia on any fall out.
Hope to be more available tomorrow.
Must dash, no time to say hello, goodbye, I'm not going to be late. It's all okayyyy
Sentiment is the same as yours i.e. no confidence in upward move even if it does materialise.
Some strong-errr numbers in PMI but wot with oil and trump and Iran and the brexit and the tariffs, feel we are in a right pickle. Market is resilient to all of it to say the least but given the long run - for how long is the big question.
Lots of twitching imo. Favour short bias on SPX long time frames short, short TF do take long positions.
Today I'm looking at a test of 2739. Tops 2760s. Will be looking for more shorting opportunities - unless Trump backs down on his tariff threats. Here are Woodies PP levels. PPoint around 2720 has been visited so many times not really going very far to either side. Been relatively good recently and well behaved. Bias towards shorts. https://uk.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures-technical
On Cable there is optimism of a softening Brexit deal/stance or whatevarrrr so pound strengthening somewhat. Might just make it to 1.34. So bullish on that. But then again, there is always the White Cliffs of Dover otherwise.
I'm also positive on European markets. Come what may, feel they stand to benefit more than US or the Asia on any fall out.
Hope to be more available tomorrow.
Must dash, no time to say hello, goodbye, I'm not going to be late. It's all okayyyy
Last edited:
Dentalfloss
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Morning chaps
Sentiment is the same as yours i.e. no confidence in upward move even if it does materialise.
Some strong-errr numbers in PMI but wot with oil and trump and Iran and the brexit and the tariffs, feel we are in a right pickle. Market is resilient to all of it to say the least but given the long run - for how long is the big question.
Lots of twitching imo. Favour short bias on SPX long time frames short, short TF do take long positions.
Today I'm looking at a test of 2739. Tops 2760s. Will be looking for more shorting opportunities - unless Trump backs down on his tariff threats. Here are Woodies PP levels. PPoint around 2720 has been visited so many times not really going very far to either side. Been relatively good recently and well behaved. Bias towards shorts. https://uk.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures-technical
On Cable there is optimism of a softening Brexit deal/stance or whatevarrrr so pound strengthening somewhat. Might just make it to 1.34. So bullish on that. But then again otherwise there is always the White Cliffs of Dover.
I'm also positive on European markets. Come what may, feel they stand to benefit more than US or the Asia on any fall out.
Hope to be more available tomorrow.
Must dash, no time to say hello, goodbye, I'm not going to be late. It's all okayyyy
Thank you sir for those wise words
Dentalfloss
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Dax
in our pivot area
in our pivot area
Dentalfloss
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in the zone
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better veiw
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Le Cac
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Atilla
if SPX goes down the toilet....all others follow....to some extent
if SPX goes down the toilet....all others follow....to some extent
Dentalfloss
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Cable
1.3250 lined up for a pump or dump
1.3250 lined up for a pump or dump
Dentalfloss
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- Digesting German orders, awaiting run of BoE and ECB speakers, US ADP
Employment and Non-Manufacturing ISM; France and Spain to sell bonds
- German Factory Orders hint strong that Q1 weakness was largely
weather, flu outbreak and strike related, strength in capital and
consumer goods encouraging
- Trump, OPEC and Oil: Trump can moan all he likes, the fact is that
spare output capacity is limited
- US FOMC minutes: discussion on upside and downside risks to outlook
the key point of focus, as well as any chatter on balance sheet
reduction programme plans
- US ADP Employment: consensus forecast agnostic as ever, and value
as a predictor of official data in question after serial misses
- Chart: US Oil Exports to China
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As U.S. markets return to the fray of the financial world, it is the events side of the equation that dominates with an array of central bank speakers (BoJ, RBA, BOE, ECB) and the June FOMC minutes. That said, Germany's Factory Orders will offer some insights into whether 'hard' data can match the improved optimism evident in this week's survey data (though less so in manufacturing terms), while across the pond, the US has the ADP Employment estimate ahead of tomorrow's official labour report, along with weekly jobless claims and the Non-manufacturing ISM. Govt bond supply comes in the shape of multi-tranche offerings from France and Spain, for which little in the way of a concession has been factored after a charge towards the longer end of Eurozone curves, in response to the ECB's proposed 'operation twist' on its QE reinvestments. It remains the case that scheduled data and events remain secondary to trade tensions and political risk news, with the former weighing above all on EM currencies and assets, as well as non-oil commodities, in conjunction with USD strength. Inevitably there will be some chatter about the ECB hawks being unhappy that markets have pushed back on the timing of the first ECB rate hike to December, the more so given that two hawks Weidmann and Mersch will both be speaking today. However this all looks to be a case of 'splitting hairs' in so far as this 'sources story' suggests that this group is only looking at a Sept/Oct 2019 rate hike. The Weekly EIA oil market inventories is also due, following on from API data showing a larger than expected drawdown in crude inventories, though the Trump twitter rant on OPEC and oil prices will garner more attention. However the key point on that is a simple one: if the Saudi's do use their spare output capacity (estimated at 2.0 Mln bbls/day), then that will effectively exhaust all the spare capacity that there is in the world, therefore if Venezuelan and Angolan output remain depressed (likely) and there is a sanctions related drop in Iranian output (also possible as the economy in Iran is grinding to a halt due to strikes and mass protests against the IRGC and Clerical Govt, with power cuts of up to 4 hours per day across most of the country), then the output deficit (3.0-4.0 Mln??) will be greater than the spare capacity, implying an output gap of around 1.0-1.5 Mln. Trump can tweet all he wants, because he knows that high US gasoline prices will be a vote loser for the Republicans at the November mid-term elections, but the fundamentals will still assert themselves at the end of the day.
** U.S.A. - June ADP Employment / Non-manufacturing ISM **
- That US labour demand remains strong is well known, that consensus forecasts for the ADP estimate and the official payrolls are rarely distinguishable and over the past year inevitably pegged near the 6-mth average is also well established, as is the fact that for all the evident strength of labour demand, and the gradual fall in the Unemployment Rate, significant upward pressure on wages remains notable for its absence. While there is always the temptation to extrapolate from ADP to Payrolls, the last 6 months have seen notable misses (above & below). As such today's report is perhaps mostly of academic interest, above all given the clear focus on wage growth trends as the component which might prompt a Fed policy shift. As for the Non-manufacturing ISM, this is projected to slip marginally to a still very solid 58.3 from 58.6, with the better than expected Manufacturing ISM and other survey data implying some upside risks. As ever a reminder that the Non-manufacturing ISM Employment sub-index has become largely uncorrelated with official Services Payrolls in month to month terms, and is as such of little use as a predictor for tomorrow's report.
** U.S.A. - June FOMC minutes **
- Given that the June FOMC meeting was also a press conference and forecast update meeting, today's minutes may offer little in the way of fresh insights. However the discussion of the upside and downside risks to the economy, and by extension the policy outlook may offer one or other nugget. Fed statements have thus far eschewed making any specific references to trade tensions, in no small part because tariff imposition has thus far been very specific and limited. It seems unlikely that EM currency woes will have featured much in the Fed's discussions, both from the aspect that there is no evidence of any offshore USD shortages, which would be a point of concern if these threatened a negative feedback loop into onshore markets, and also given the fact that the CNY drop only happened after the FOMC meeting; though here again, the FOMC will be wary of overreacting given the lessons of 2015/2016, where the FOMC clearly di overreact. Of rather more interest would be any discussion about how its balance sheet reduction programme is going, particularly in the light of some evidence of some GC Repo market pressures, as well as some (idle? Ed.) market speculation & chatter that it might end sooner than perhaps previously envisaged.
** Germany - May Factory Orders **
- Th anecdotal evidence from Ifo's Orders monitoring index had signalled this in June, but the proof of the pudding is in the eating as they say, but this does offer support for the view that orders are clearly turning the corner and adding to the evidence that the early H1 weakness was mostly weather, flu outbreak and strike related - May Orders +2.6% m/m 4.4% y.y, Apr revised to -1,.6% m/m from -2.5% - fitting well with the broadly stronger PMIs seen this week. The deatils were also encouraging, Capital Goods +4.7% m/m and Consumer Goods 4.9% m/m lead the way; with strength in Domestic and Eurozone Orders +4.3% and 6.7% respectively, while non-Eurozone -1.3% m/m though that follows April's +5.9% m/m
from Marc Ostwald
Employment and Non-Manufacturing ISM; France and Spain to sell bonds
- German Factory Orders hint strong that Q1 weakness was largely
weather, flu outbreak and strike related, strength in capital and
consumer goods encouraging
- Trump, OPEC and Oil: Trump can moan all he likes, the fact is that
spare output capacity is limited
- US FOMC minutes: discussion on upside and downside risks to outlook
the key point of focus, as well as any chatter on balance sheet
reduction programme plans
- US ADP Employment: consensus forecast agnostic as ever, and value
as a predictor of official data in question after serial misses
- Chart: US Oil Exports to China
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As U.S. markets return to the fray of the financial world, it is the events side of the equation that dominates with an array of central bank speakers (BoJ, RBA, BOE, ECB) and the June FOMC minutes. That said, Germany's Factory Orders will offer some insights into whether 'hard' data can match the improved optimism evident in this week's survey data (though less so in manufacturing terms), while across the pond, the US has the ADP Employment estimate ahead of tomorrow's official labour report, along with weekly jobless claims and the Non-manufacturing ISM. Govt bond supply comes in the shape of multi-tranche offerings from France and Spain, for which little in the way of a concession has been factored after a charge towards the longer end of Eurozone curves, in response to the ECB's proposed 'operation twist' on its QE reinvestments. It remains the case that scheduled data and events remain secondary to trade tensions and political risk news, with the former weighing above all on EM currencies and assets, as well as non-oil commodities, in conjunction with USD strength. Inevitably there will be some chatter about the ECB hawks being unhappy that markets have pushed back on the timing of the first ECB rate hike to December, the more so given that two hawks Weidmann and Mersch will both be speaking today. However this all looks to be a case of 'splitting hairs' in so far as this 'sources story' suggests that this group is only looking at a Sept/Oct 2019 rate hike. The Weekly EIA oil market inventories is also due, following on from API data showing a larger than expected drawdown in crude inventories, though the Trump twitter rant on OPEC and oil prices will garner more attention. However the key point on that is a simple one: if the Saudi's do use their spare output capacity (estimated at 2.0 Mln bbls/day), then that will effectively exhaust all the spare capacity that there is in the world, therefore if Venezuelan and Angolan output remain depressed (likely) and there is a sanctions related drop in Iranian output (also possible as the economy in Iran is grinding to a halt due to strikes and mass protests against the IRGC and Clerical Govt, with power cuts of up to 4 hours per day across most of the country), then the output deficit (3.0-4.0 Mln??) will be greater than the spare capacity, implying an output gap of around 1.0-1.5 Mln. Trump can tweet all he wants, because he knows that high US gasoline prices will be a vote loser for the Republicans at the November mid-term elections, but the fundamentals will still assert themselves at the end of the day.
** U.S.A. - June ADP Employment / Non-manufacturing ISM **
- That US labour demand remains strong is well known, that consensus forecasts for the ADP estimate and the official payrolls are rarely distinguishable and over the past year inevitably pegged near the 6-mth average is also well established, as is the fact that for all the evident strength of labour demand, and the gradual fall in the Unemployment Rate, significant upward pressure on wages remains notable for its absence. While there is always the temptation to extrapolate from ADP to Payrolls, the last 6 months have seen notable misses (above & below). As such today's report is perhaps mostly of academic interest, above all given the clear focus on wage growth trends as the component which might prompt a Fed policy shift. As for the Non-manufacturing ISM, this is projected to slip marginally to a still very solid 58.3 from 58.6, with the better than expected Manufacturing ISM and other survey data implying some upside risks. As ever a reminder that the Non-manufacturing ISM Employment sub-index has become largely uncorrelated with official Services Payrolls in month to month terms, and is as such of little use as a predictor for tomorrow's report.
** U.S.A. - June FOMC minutes **
- Given that the June FOMC meeting was also a press conference and forecast update meeting, today's minutes may offer little in the way of fresh insights. However the discussion of the upside and downside risks to the economy, and by extension the policy outlook may offer one or other nugget. Fed statements have thus far eschewed making any specific references to trade tensions, in no small part because tariff imposition has thus far been very specific and limited. It seems unlikely that EM currency woes will have featured much in the Fed's discussions, both from the aspect that there is no evidence of any offshore USD shortages, which would be a point of concern if these threatened a negative feedback loop into onshore markets, and also given the fact that the CNY drop only happened after the FOMC meeting; though here again, the FOMC will be wary of overreacting given the lessons of 2015/2016, where the FOMC clearly di overreact. Of rather more interest would be any discussion about how its balance sheet reduction programme is going, particularly in the light of some evidence of some GC Repo market pressures, as well as some (idle? Ed.) market speculation & chatter that it might end sooner than perhaps previously envisaged.
** Germany - May Factory Orders **
- Th anecdotal evidence from Ifo's Orders monitoring index had signalled this in June, but the proof of the pudding is in the eating as they say, but this does offer support for the view that orders are clearly turning the corner and adding to the evidence that the early H1 weakness was mostly weather, flu outbreak and strike related - May Orders +2.6% m/m 4.4% y.y, Apr revised to -1,.6% m/m from -2.5% - fitting well with the broadly stronger PMIs seen this week. The deatils were also encouraging, Capital Goods +4.7% m/m and Consumer Goods 4.9% m/m lead the way; with strength in Domestic and Eurozone Orders +4.3% and 6.7% respectively, while non-Eurozone -1.3% m/m though that follows April's +5.9% m/m
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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eurusd
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Cable
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1.3266 and above ...could be a dog
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oil
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Amesbury
Will be interesting to see if England fans in Russia will be so accomodating
Will be interesting to see if England fans in Russia will be so accomodating
Dentalfloss
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could not have come at a worst time
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1.3266
whacked
luvin it
whacked
luvin it
C
cantagril
Hope you'll forgive this Dentist but it's a slow day for me so far....
I was just musing (it's free and passes the time) on how to factor in the Trump effect with standard market rubbish. Seems to me that if one looks at almost everything he's done and said so far, it all conforms to a fairly basic pattern: he says a load of stuff that upsets a lot of people, making outrageous statements about just about everybody that doesn't fit in with his world view and then starts what looks like a sustained programme of aggressive action.
After a while, he tends to pull back from the edge somewhat but in such a way that the sense of relief from this apparent re-think masks the fact that the goalposts have been moved.
When it comes to the Chinese - we're being spoon-fed the idea that the battle lines have been drawn and that the cataclysm is about to commence...but isn't that exactly what happened with Little Kim??? In order for the all-out trade apocalypse scenario to be really on the cards, there are a couple of conditions that have to be in place. The first is that being an idiot, he genuinely does not believe or is ignoring the negative effects of this on the US and his term in office and, secondly, that the only communication between the US government and the Chinese is what we're reading about in MSM.
When it comes to those two conditions that's where I start having real trouble. I don't make any secret of my loathing for the man but putting that aside, he knows how to fire people up and get deals done. He also does not want to go down in history as the Prez who single handedly trashed the US economy and pushed the Chinese into further escalating their empire building in the Far East. He might look like an idiot, talk like one and superficially act like one but I think that whilst he's definitely no rocket scientist he knows a lot about pulling the blanket firmly on his side and keeping it there. So, my take is that he and Xi are making their own arrangements for the world and that trade and military influence are just part and parcel of the day to day business of Real Politik. The absurdity of how things look and the fear that generates is IMO, completely deliberate.
All in all, what I think that we're experiencing is a kind of theatre. It appears that it's real and it appears that we understand what's going on.... but that's because the show is well-produced and directed. I'm looking forward to a lot of hyperbole and volatility followed by supposedly tough negotiations which will result in an outcome that has everybody thinking that it could have been a lot worse - sales folk know this as "preparation" or "conditioning".
...which all leads me to be more bearish on the indices short term (and that might be veeeery short) but to look at that as an opportunity to buy
I was just musing (it's free and passes the time) on how to factor in the Trump effect with standard market rubbish. Seems to me that if one looks at almost everything he's done and said so far, it all conforms to a fairly basic pattern: he says a load of stuff that upsets a lot of people, making outrageous statements about just about everybody that doesn't fit in with his world view and then starts what looks like a sustained programme of aggressive action.
After a while, he tends to pull back from the edge somewhat but in such a way that the sense of relief from this apparent re-think masks the fact that the goalposts have been moved.
When it comes to the Chinese - we're being spoon-fed the idea that the battle lines have been drawn and that the cataclysm is about to commence...but isn't that exactly what happened with Little Kim??? In order for the all-out trade apocalypse scenario to be really on the cards, there are a couple of conditions that have to be in place. The first is that being an idiot, he genuinely does not believe or is ignoring the negative effects of this on the US and his term in office and, secondly, that the only communication between the US government and the Chinese is what we're reading about in MSM.
When it comes to those two conditions that's where I start having real trouble. I don't make any secret of my loathing for the man but putting that aside, he knows how to fire people up and get deals done. He also does not want to go down in history as the Prez who single handedly trashed the US economy and pushed the Chinese into further escalating their empire building in the Far East. He might look like an idiot, talk like one and superficially act like one but I think that whilst he's definitely no rocket scientist he knows a lot about pulling the blanket firmly on his side and keeping it there. So, my take is that he and Xi are making their own arrangements for the world and that trade and military influence are just part and parcel of the day to day business of Real Politik. The absurdity of how things look and the fear that generates is IMO, completely deliberate.
All in all, what I think that we're experiencing is a kind of theatre. It appears that it's real and it appears that we understand what's going on.... but that's because the show is well-produced and directed. I'm looking forward to a lot of hyperbole and volatility followed by supposedly tough negotiations which will result in an outcome that has everybody thinking that it could have been a lot worse - sales folk know this as "preparation" or "conditioning".
...which all leads me to be more bearish on the indices short term (and that might be veeeery short) but to look at that as an opportunity to buy
