Trading with point and figure

[Dentalfloss]

Cable

 

[Dentalfloss]

poss base forming there
Carney goin to use the gate figures at Legoland for forward guidance
Construction figures out later

 

[Dentalfloss]

Seeitmarket sayin a correction due in OIl

 

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eurusd
is that a base forming

 

[Dentalfloss]

Good Morrow My Liege.

I trust that nothing ails thee this fine morn.

I thought I'd have a look at GBPCHF again after a period of sustained decline. It seems to be in an area of support that in April started a ramp up that got to 1.38. Whilst the 1 hour is bearish the shorter term charts are quite bullish. I think that either we're going to get some prolonged (a few weeks, coinciding nicely with hols) sideways movement or the big boys will see fit for another lift-off just when the world has decided that the UK doesn't have any government at all to speak of...the mission to that planet we all know and love will start just before the official glad tidings of reconciliation and concord are announced.

....all that to say that I might try a long from the 1.3025 area if it gets there again soon. Might be a 50 pipper.

In the meantime I'll check out the CAC which certainly lived up to it's name yesterday.

yes sir

 

[Dentalfloss]

its all about if 1.3000 area holds

 

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Sir Canta

 

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Sir Canta
chart shows a trend break.....
but
latest signal is bearish
yazza in shakeout territory.ie the beginning of a new trend

 

[Dentalfloss]

if you can withstand the possible shakeout..there should be pips there
buy some of Atilla"s flee powder to stop the itching
as always....who knows..

 

[Dentalfloss]

Sir Canta
that is exactly the entry you want on all timeframes

CHANGE OF TREND
yu get in at the lowest for a buy and highest for a sell

keep chuggin

 

[cantagril]

Cac 40...laggin
Allez les Blues

Lagging indeed. Whilst the Frog budget balance wasn't good, it wasn't a shock and I can't see CAC continuing to lag if the 10 o"clock EU numbers come in reasonably OK. The Dax had almost no effect on it yesterday but if that moves up in any meaningful way I don't see how the CAC can't at least pretend to follow.

Looking at 5280 area for a long. Targets 5325 and 5360

 

[Dentalfloss]

- Relief at CDU/CSU migration compromise and running political/trade
frictions likely to override modest data and event schedule ahead of
US holiday; very poor Turkish CPI, UK Construction PMI and US Auto
Sales and Factory Orders; UK FPC minutes & OCED FAO Agri outlook
accompanied by bond sales in UK and Austria

- Turkey CPI: sharp rise underlines that cumulative pass through pressures
from weak TRY and oil prices unlikely to ebb any time soon

- Germany: govt collapse averted for now, but SPD still needs to approve,
and then healthcare reform debate looms as next divisive point

- US Auto Sales: extra selling day to offer modest boost, and thus
a positive contribution to retail sales

- Charts: China CFETS FX index vs. JPM EM FX Index, US Auto Sales, Turkish
CPI vs. TRY/USD

..........................................................................

********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************

Today's schedule has its points of interest in terms of scheduled data and events, but the political and trade narrative will likely continue to be the overwhelming influence on financial markets. Statistically there are the overnight South Korea CPI to digest ahead of the rather more sensitive Turkish CPI, with the UK Construction PMI and US Auto Sales the only other items of note, on what is a typically low key second working day of the month. The RBA surprised no nobody with its no change rate decision and resolute neutral policy outlook overnight, though the statement accompanying the expected Riksbank no change decision may be of rather more interest. The Riksbank continues to hint gently that it is thinking about hiking rates marginally, but is still very clearly seeing itself as hostage to ECB policy. Of particular note will be what observations are made on the SEK exchange rate, following comments from many policy committee members that the sharp decline in the SEK vs the EUR in the February through early May period was excessive. In the UK the minutes of the June FPC meeting are published, with key points of interest being what was discussed fin terms of banks' Brexit preparations, and UK Household debt. US markets will close early ahead of tomorrow's Independence Day holiday. In what has been a rather choppy 12 months for many agricultural markets, thanks to weather, strong harvests and trade related issues, it will also be interesting to see what the OECD-FAO annual Agricultural Outlook offers, above all in terms of the trade perspectives. The German coalition crisis, or rather the deep rift between sister parties CDU & CSU appears to have been put to one side for the time being, however it should be noted that the SPD still have to agree to the compromise reached between Merkel and Seehofer, which may yet engender a further political set to. What actually emerges is that the vast majority of CDU and CSU MPs, and more than likely SPD, have no desire to unseat Merkel, or at the very least are unwilling to expend the considerable political capital that such a move would entail. That this coalition is still inherently very fragile remains a fact. Govt bond supply takes the shape of a further tranche of the current UK 10-yr benchmark Gilt, and 10 & 19-yr Austrian Bunds.

** Turkey - June CPI **
- As inflation horror stories go, the much worse than expected CPI 2.61% m/m 15.39% y/y vs . expectations of 1.3% m/m 13.9% and May's 12.15% (core 14.6% y/y vs. expected 13.4%), allied with a further surge in PPI to 23.71% y/y from 20.16% y/y underscores the extent of the cumulative pass through pressures from the various bouts of TRY weakness, and the equally poisonous (for Turkey's economy) rise in oil prices. It also highlights that the TCMB's recently more aggressive monetary policy stance looks to be a case of too little, too late, and that it may well have to hike rates even more sharply, which will only heighten concerns about Turkey's government and corporate external liabilities.

** U.S.A. - June Auto Sales **
- A modest pick-up in SAAR terms from May's 16.81 Mln to 17.0 Mln is expected, with this month also seeing the first quarterly report on sales from GM after it ditched monthly reporting earlier this year. The anecdotal evidence from the JD Power (16.9 Mln) and Kelley Automotive (16.8 Mln) implies some modest downside risks, but overall the estimates still point to a flat or positive contribution from Autos to June Personal Consumption / Retail Sales, even if the outturn in y/y terms (consensus 2.5% y/y) will be flattered by an extra selling day relative to June 2018.

from Marc Ostwald

 

[Dentalfloss]

spx
our one liner

 

[Dentalfloss]

SPX into the open

dump...straight into our marked supp area

 

[Dentalfloss]

and bounce
excellent

 

[Dentalfloss]

indices
do we fake above 2730
or
do we get an uptrend
that will call the shots

 

[Dentalfloss]

Cac
5292 gettin tested

 

[Dentalfloss]

Bounced to retest 2731 rez
Excellent

 

[Dentalfloss]

Need some of atilla"s itching powder for the England game tonight

 

[Dentalfloss]

popped
watch for those fakes