Dentalfloss
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dow 24285....was prev supp
Trading with point and figure
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Dentalfloss
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spx in 2673 pivot area
retest
retest
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Dentalfloss
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and a few more
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worked well
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fed..??
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all index...dump
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US Q1 advance GDP thoughts - "Details key to small Q1 GDP beat, can be spun in both directions"
At 2.3% vs. expected 2.0%, this was a smidgeon better than forecasts, though the array of economists and commentators will definitely divide sharply between half full and half empty interpretations, though perhaps the key point as ever is preliminary readings are subject to what are often large revisions
a) Personal Consumption - bang in line with forecasts at 1.1% SAAR, with a big drag from Durables (i.e. Autos) that fell 3.3%, while Services spending held up well at 2.1% (vs. Q4 2.3%), though Non-durables spending was weak at 0.1% (vs. Q4 4.8%). Overall Final Sales to Domestic Buyers slowed sharply to 1.6% after posting an 11-yr high of 4.5% in Q4, and was on balance rather better than the narrative being peddled by many commentators that this element had gone "ex-growth"in Q1.
b) Business Investment - Spending on Equipment slowed quite sharply, as was flagged by yesterday's Durables, to 4.7%, though this does follow outsized increases in Q2 to Q4 2017 of 8.8%, 10.8% and 11.6%, and is not unusual for Q1. Investment in Structures was however robust at 12.3%, tough as with Residential Investment (flat in Q1) this is a very volatile component (see table below).
c) Trade - Yesterday's goods trade data had flagged that this was going to be a much smaller drag than the whopping -1.2 ppt seen in Q4, but was even better than expected adding 0.2 ppt. Some will inevitably suggest that this may be revised away, though it looks to be more a case that it is a 'mean reversion' after an overstated drag in Q4 (at least in trend terms).
d) Inventories - Inventories added 0.4 ppts to GDP, after deducting 0.5 ppt in Q4, and in trend terms has been much less volatile over the past 2 quarters than has been the case, though it has to be added that this (along with Trade) is frequently subject to some of the sharpest revisions. Still the doom and gloomsters will doubtless draw the conclusion that it implies that inventories will be a drag in Q2.
e) Govt spending - at 1.2% SAAR, and above all paced bvy defence (1.8%), Govt spending contributed just 0.2 ppts, the big question is how this looks going forward
f) Q1 Employment Cost Index (ECI) - this was perhaps rather more significant than the GDP report, in so far as the better than expected 0.8% q/q (vs. forecast 0.7% and Q4 0.6%), specifically because it was paced by Wages & Salaries (a rather better measure than the monthly wages data) with a 0.9% q/q rise, which was the best reading since a 1.0% q/q rise in Q1 2007 - see attached chart.
"Take homes": This is certainly not going to be a game changer for the FOMC, when it meets next week... in either direction, though they will be encourages by the ECI data on Wages. Markets look to be very much non-plussed by the reports, in no small part due to next week's month end and rash of holidays (May Day and Japan's Golden Week), as much as the lack of any big surprises.
As a P.S. to the UK Q1 GDP data, which as ever lacked much needed detail, it has to be said that much of the weakness looks to be weather related - Agriculture -1.4% q/q, Construction -3.3% q/q (largest fall since Q2 2012, doubtless given an extra kick lower by the Carillion collapse), and indeed the -0.1% q/q in the Distribution, Hotels and Catering sub-index, which accounted for all of the disappointment in the 0.3% q/q Services. That said, the weakness in Consumer Spending is not just a function of weather effects, even if a modest rebound is seen in Q2.
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
At 2.3% vs. expected 2.0%, this was a smidgeon better than forecasts, though the array of economists and commentators will definitely divide sharply between half full and half empty interpretations, though perhaps the key point as ever is preliminary readings are subject to what are often large revisions
a) Personal Consumption - bang in line with forecasts at 1.1% SAAR, with a big drag from Durables (i.e. Autos) that fell 3.3%, while Services spending held up well at 2.1% (vs. Q4 2.3%), though Non-durables spending was weak at 0.1% (vs. Q4 4.8%). Overall Final Sales to Domestic Buyers slowed sharply to 1.6% after posting an 11-yr high of 4.5% in Q4, and was on balance rather better than the narrative being peddled by many commentators that this element had gone "ex-growth"in Q1.
b) Business Investment - Spending on Equipment slowed quite sharply, as was flagged by yesterday's Durables, to 4.7%, though this does follow outsized increases in Q2 to Q4 2017 of 8.8%, 10.8% and 11.6%, and is not unusual for Q1. Investment in Structures was however robust at 12.3%, tough as with Residential Investment (flat in Q1) this is a very volatile component (see table below).
c) Trade - Yesterday's goods trade data had flagged that this was going to be a much smaller drag than the whopping -1.2 ppt seen in Q4, but was even better than expected adding 0.2 ppt. Some will inevitably suggest that this may be revised away, though it looks to be more a case that it is a 'mean reversion' after an overstated drag in Q4 (at least in trend terms).
d) Inventories - Inventories added 0.4 ppts to GDP, after deducting 0.5 ppt in Q4, and in trend terms has been much less volatile over the past 2 quarters than has been the case, though it has to be added that this (along with Trade) is frequently subject to some of the sharpest revisions. Still the doom and gloomsters will doubtless draw the conclusion that it implies that inventories will be a drag in Q2.
e) Govt spending - at 1.2% SAAR, and above all paced bvy defence (1.8%), Govt spending contributed just 0.2 ppts, the big question is how this looks going forward
f) Q1 Employment Cost Index (ECI) - this was perhaps rather more significant than the GDP report, in so far as the better than expected 0.8% q/q (vs. forecast 0.7% and Q4 0.6%), specifically because it was paced by Wages & Salaries (a rather better measure than the monthly wages data) with a 0.9% q/q rise, which was the best reading since a 1.0% q/q rise in Q1 2007 - see attached chart.
"Take homes": This is certainly not going to be a game changer for the FOMC, when it meets next week... in either direction, though they will be encourages by the ECI data on Wages. Markets look to be very much non-plussed by the reports, in no small part due to next week's month end and rash of holidays (May Day and Japan's Golden Week), as much as the lack of any big surprises.
As a P.S. to the UK Q1 GDP data, which as ever lacked much needed detail, it has to be said that much of the weakness looks to be weather related - Agriculture -1.4% q/q, Construction -3.3% q/q (largest fall since Q2 2012, doubtless given an extra kick lower by the Carillion collapse), and indeed the -0.1% q/q in the Distribution, Hotels and Catering sub-index, which accounted for all of the disappointment in the 0.3% q/q Services. That said, the weakness in Consumer Spending is not just a function of weather effects, even if a modest rebound is seen in Q2.
..........................................................................
Marc Ostwald
Global Strategist
ADM Investor Services International
Dentalfloss
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Naz
yes sir
Dentalfloss
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naz in rez
chart posted at 8.21am
price was 6743
rose a tad into the open to 6765
seems to have got supp at 6610
approx 2% dump....nasty stuff
chart posted at 8.21am
price was 6743
rose a tad into the open to 6765
seems to have got supp at 6610
approx 2% dump....nasty stuff
Dentalfloss
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ftse
overshot a bit
7500-7512 next rez
overshot a bit
7500-7512 next rez
Dentalfloss
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cable oversold
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Dow into the open
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a mass of horizontal rez up to 24600/that is some sort of pivot area...dunno why its important
24063 is prev rez/breakout......so masses of horizontal supp areas
24063 is prev rez/breakout......so masses of horizontal supp areas
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change inputs....much clearer
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if 24300 breaks..then supp @ 24241-24278 area
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mornin folks
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GBP...could get a hammerin
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