C
cantagril
Now trading around 1.3620. Stop at BE
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
Now trading around 1.3620. Stop at BE
C
cantagril
....or not. Touched 75 and fell back.
C
cantagril
Well that was a waste of time - stop hit whilst I wasn"t looking....so today's pickings are more than usually slim
Dentalfloss
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SPX trend break
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NAZ 100
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Naz not lookin happy
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mornin folks
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not sure what happens in Eur session
French,German and Swiss bank holidays
Apple earnings after the close
Russia ...think its May day parade....they will be trying out their new range of chemical weapons on the parade audience.....lets hope they work well
French,German and Swiss bank holidays
Apple earnings after the close
Russia ...think its May day parade....they will be trying out their new range of chemical weapons on the parade audience.....lets hope they work well
Dentalfloss
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ftse has pivots at 7492 and 7480
Naz 100 might have pmt...with AAPL reporting after the bell
Naz 100 might have pmt...with AAPL reporting after the bell
Dentalfloss
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GBP news in a couple of hours
Beast from east will be the blame again
Beast from east will be the blame again
Dentalfloss
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cable lookin interesting....could be gettin support
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ditto naz 100
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needs 1.3750 as supp if it breaks
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Cable
there is an inkling of support...lets see what happens#
there is an inkling of support...lets see what happens#
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EG
0.8750 could get a hammerin
0.8750 could get a hammerin
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usdjpy 109.50 lining up
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ditto eurusd 1.2050
will dollar get sold..??
will dollar get sold..??
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from Marc Ostwald
- Holiday thinned markets still have plenty to digest and look ahead to:
as expected no change from RBA, sharpish upward revision to Japan Mfg PMI,
soft Korea Trade; looking ahead of US & UK Manufacturing PMIs, UK lending
stats, US Auto Sales and Construction Spending; BoC's Poloz speaks
- US Treasury Q2 financing: sharp downward revision to borrowing estimate,
Treasury cash balance estimate still implies $70 Bln drain from banking
system; issuance maturity details tomorrow
- UK Manufacturing PMI: seen marginally lower, underlying pace solid,
but Construction / Services still key
- UK lending data: further modest slowdown expected, but still
unsustainably high
- US Manufacturing ISM: seen dipping, but overall strong activity profile;
regional surveys send very mixed signals
- US Auto Sales: seen slowing vs. March, industry measures imply downside
risks relative to consensus
- Charts: US Treasury Cash Balance at Fed vs. LIBOR OIS spread; US 10-yr yld
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
t's the May Day holiday in much of the world, which will make for subdued trading conditions, though the day's schedule is not bereft of highlights. The first batch of Manufacturing PMIs (UK, USA & Canada), UK money and lending aggregates, US Construction Spending & Auto Sales and Canada GDP should offer some food for thought, probably rather more than the resolutely neutral policy stance that the RBA reaffirmed overnight. Earnings are again plentiful, featuring amongst others: ANZ Bank, Japan Tobacco, Yamaha; BP; Aetna, ADM, Anadarko Petroleum, Gilead Sciences, HCA Healthcare, Marathon Petroleum, Merck & Co, Mondelez, Pfizer, Under Armour & Itau Unibanco. Last but not least, yesterday's preliminary Q2 Treasury funding announcement came in at $75 Bln (net), way below its prior estimate of $176 Bln, which implies considerably less govt bond supply than markets had been assuming, even though the Q3 estimate at $273 Bln raises the spectre of a surge in issuance later in the year. Be that as it may, it again leaves the record short in the US 10yr future looking vulnerable. Given that it had an end March Cash balance at the Fed of $290 Bln (prior estimate $210 Bln), and assumes it will have a $360 Bln at the end of Q2 and Q3, it does however imply a $70 Bln drain from the banking system. Details of the composition of that Q2 issuance will be published tomorrow at 13:30, with market chatter suggesting a new 2-month T-Bill be introduced.
** U.K. - April Manufacturing PMI / March Consumer Credit & Mortgage Lending **
- To say that the UK stands under a cloud at the current juncture may be something of an understatement, though it is probably fair to say that the political cloud is in no small part responsible for the economic one (with dreadful weather getting a so-called honourable mention). The UK's Manufacturing sector has been a ray of sunshine amidst the Brexit related uncertainty, and was indeed the only real positive in the preliminary Q1 GDP (though it accounts for just 10% of UK GDP), and the Manufacturing PMI was impervious to the weather related hit to March's Construction and Services PMIs. It is expected to sustain the steady profile of recent months, dipping to 54.8 (vs readings of 55.0/55.1 in Q1), but for all that this is positive, it is rather moot in terms of both the overall outlook for the UK economy, and indeed BoE policy. The consumer lending profile of the UK has little to commend it, with the post referendum rate cut sustaining what was (and still is) a pace of consumer borrowing (which peaked at 10.9% y/y in January 2016), which always spelt trouble ahead. While Consumer Credit growth has slowed (last 9.4% y/y), and will slow further this month if forecasts for a £1.4 Bln rise (vs £1.59 Bln in March 2017) are correct, which would fit with the UK Finance data on Lending, and the BoE's Q1 lending survey.... but it remains much too high relative to wage growth, even when accounting for higher levels of employment and labour force participation. Mortgage Lending is seen at £3.6 Bln, in line with average for Q4 2017 and the first two months of 2018, though Approvals are set to dip again to 63.0K from 63.9K, but still above December's post referendum low of 61.2K, and also mirroring the the UK Finance data for March. Housing Affordability (i.e. the lack of it) remains the biggest headwind, and dwarfs the shortage of housing stock and indeed very low mortgage rates in terms of price formation at the current juncture.
** U.S.A. - April Manufacturing ISM / Auto Sales **
- For all that some of the regional Manufacturing surveys dropped quite sharply, either at headline level (e.g. Richmond) or in the sub-indices (Philly), yesterday's Chicago PMI was little changed (57.6 vs. March 57.4) and Dallas Fed measure remained firm, and the not always well correlated flash Markit Manufacturing PMI jumped to its best level in more than 3 years at 56.5 v. March 55.6. As such expectations for a modest slip in the Manufacturing ISM to a very robust 58.4 from 59.3 appear reasonable, with the Prices Paid measure seen edging up to 78.5, its highest level since 2011. The consensus for April Auto Sales would appear to be on the optimistic side at 17.1 Mln relative to the industry estimates from Edmonds (16.9 Mln) and JD Power/LMC Automotive (16.6 Mln), with the added complication that GM will not be publishing monthly sales data this month, reverting to quarterly reports. Fewer selling days (24) this year relative to April 2017 (26) will ensure that the y/y pace declines (estimates around -2.0/-3.0%), and this despite still very high levels of discounts and other incentives (according to many industry analysts 'unsustainable'), despite rising interest rates. Fleet sales are to an extent flattering headline sales numbers (expected to account for ca. 20% in April), which leaves some doubt as to the extent to which the durables component of Personal Consumption in Q2 GDP will rebound after the setback in Q1, paced by weak auto sales.
- Holiday thinned markets still have plenty to digest and look ahead to:
as expected no change from RBA, sharpish upward revision to Japan Mfg PMI,
soft Korea Trade; looking ahead of US & UK Manufacturing PMIs, UK lending
stats, US Auto Sales and Construction Spending; BoC's Poloz speaks
- US Treasury Q2 financing: sharp downward revision to borrowing estimate,
Treasury cash balance estimate still implies $70 Bln drain from banking
system; issuance maturity details tomorrow
- UK Manufacturing PMI: seen marginally lower, underlying pace solid,
but Construction / Services still key
- UK lending data: further modest slowdown expected, but still
unsustainably high
- US Manufacturing ISM: seen dipping, but overall strong activity profile;
regional surveys send very mixed signals
- US Auto Sales: seen slowing vs. March, industry measures imply downside
risks relative to consensus
- Charts: US Treasury Cash Balance at Fed vs. LIBOR OIS spread; US 10-yr yld
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
t's the May Day holiday in much of the world, which will make for subdued trading conditions, though the day's schedule is not bereft of highlights. The first batch of Manufacturing PMIs (UK, USA & Canada), UK money and lending aggregates, US Construction Spending & Auto Sales and Canada GDP should offer some food for thought, probably rather more than the resolutely neutral policy stance that the RBA reaffirmed overnight. Earnings are again plentiful, featuring amongst others: ANZ Bank, Japan Tobacco, Yamaha; BP; Aetna, ADM, Anadarko Petroleum, Gilead Sciences, HCA Healthcare, Marathon Petroleum, Merck & Co, Mondelez, Pfizer, Under Armour & Itau Unibanco. Last but not least, yesterday's preliminary Q2 Treasury funding announcement came in at $75 Bln (net), way below its prior estimate of $176 Bln, which implies considerably less govt bond supply than markets had been assuming, even though the Q3 estimate at $273 Bln raises the spectre of a surge in issuance later in the year. Be that as it may, it again leaves the record short in the US 10yr future looking vulnerable. Given that it had an end March Cash balance at the Fed of $290 Bln (prior estimate $210 Bln), and assumes it will have a $360 Bln at the end of Q2 and Q3, it does however imply a $70 Bln drain from the banking system. Details of the composition of that Q2 issuance will be published tomorrow at 13:30, with market chatter suggesting a new 2-month T-Bill be introduced.
** U.K. - April Manufacturing PMI / March Consumer Credit & Mortgage Lending **
- To say that the UK stands under a cloud at the current juncture may be something of an understatement, though it is probably fair to say that the political cloud is in no small part responsible for the economic one (with dreadful weather getting a so-called honourable mention). The UK's Manufacturing sector has been a ray of sunshine amidst the Brexit related uncertainty, and was indeed the only real positive in the preliminary Q1 GDP (though it accounts for just 10% of UK GDP), and the Manufacturing PMI was impervious to the weather related hit to March's Construction and Services PMIs. It is expected to sustain the steady profile of recent months, dipping to 54.8 (vs readings of 55.0/55.1 in Q1), but for all that this is positive, it is rather moot in terms of both the overall outlook for the UK economy, and indeed BoE policy. The consumer lending profile of the UK has little to commend it, with the post referendum rate cut sustaining what was (and still is) a pace of consumer borrowing (which peaked at 10.9% y/y in January 2016), which always spelt trouble ahead. While Consumer Credit growth has slowed (last 9.4% y/y), and will slow further this month if forecasts for a £1.4 Bln rise (vs £1.59 Bln in March 2017) are correct, which would fit with the UK Finance data on Lending, and the BoE's Q1 lending survey.... but it remains much too high relative to wage growth, even when accounting for higher levels of employment and labour force participation. Mortgage Lending is seen at £3.6 Bln, in line with average for Q4 2017 and the first two months of 2018, though Approvals are set to dip again to 63.0K from 63.9K, but still above December's post referendum low of 61.2K, and also mirroring the the UK Finance data for March. Housing Affordability (i.e. the lack of it) remains the biggest headwind, and dwarfs the shortage of housing stock and indeed very low mortgage rates in terms of price formation at the current juncture.
** U.S.A. - April Manufacturing ISM / Auto Sales **
- For all that some of the regional Manufacturing surveys dropped quite sharply, either at headline level (e.g. Richmond) or in the sub-indices (Philly), yesterday's Chicago PMI was little changed (57.6 vs. March 57.4) and Dallas Fed measure remained firm, and the not always well correlated flash Markit Manufacturing PMI jumped to its best level in more than 3 years at 56.5 v. March 55.6. As such expectations for a modest slip in the Manufacturing ISM to a very robust 58.4 from 59.3 appear reasonable, with the Prices Paid measure seen edging up to 78.5, its highest level since 2011. The consensus for April Auto Sales would appear to be on the optimistic side at 17.1 Mln relative to the industry estimates from Edmonds (16.9 Mln) and JD Power/LMC Automotive (16.6 Mln), with the added complication that GM will not be publishing monthly sales data this month, reverting to quarterly reports. Fewer selling days (24) this year relative to April 2017 (26) will ensure that the y/y pace declines (estimates around -2.0/-3.0%), and this despite still very high levels of discounts and other incentives (according to many industry analysts 'unsustainable'), despite rising interest rates. Fleet sales are to an extent flattering headline sales numbers (expected to account for ca. 20% in April), which leaves some doubt as to the extent to which the durables component of Personal Consumption in Q2 GDP will rebound after the setback in Q1, paced by weak auto sales.
C
cantagril
Just seen this _ I have a buy order in at .8755 target .8800
I'm sure that there will at least some movement on the news but there's so much other stuff weighing on the £ atm I can't see these figures moving the market in a spectacular fashion...unless of course the numbers are also spectacular
Dentalfloss
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0.8780 lining up
0.8780 lining up
