Dentalfloss
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Breaking news
Arsene Wenger just appointed home Secretary
Arsene Wenger just appointed home Secretary
Trading with point and figure
- Thread starter Dentalfloss
- Start date
- Watchers 90
Dentalfloss
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GBP rallying on the news
C
cantagril
Morning anyone,
Looking at EG and not convinced by the move up - now in a a hefty rez area .8800/20
15 min chart looks bullish but the 60min somewhat different. Looking for a p/b to .8750 ideally..... or perhaps a GBPCHF play might be better - charts coming
Looking at EG and not convinced by the move up - now in a a hefty rez area .8800/20
15 min chart looks bullish but the 60min somewhat different. Looking for a p/b to .8750 ideally..... or perhaps a GBPCHF play might be better - charts coming
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Dentalfloss
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Canta
EG lookin a tad overbought
EG lookin a tad overbought
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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Sir Canta
EG lookin a tad overbought
EG lookin a tad overbought
C
cantagril
Yerst indeed....
GBPCHF being more volatile I think there's a better chance of a jolt on that than anything substantial on EG
C
cantagril
C
cantagril
On second thoughts I might just cut and run....oil looks as if it might bounce and as not much else is going on atm that might scupper 55
C
cantagril
Maybe not ...I thought Brent was going to bounce from 7310 but it's coming off a tad so I should get my 1st nibble shortly
Dentalfloss
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From Marc Ostwald
- Digesting China PMIs, Korea Production and German Retail sales, Corp M&A;
awaiting Italian and German CPI, US PCE/Personal Income, Pending Home Sales
& Chicago PMI; market volumes likely subdued by month end and holidays
- Germany / Italy CPI: expected to remain subdued, reinforcing ECB caution,
though some evidence of retail pricing power emerging in Germany on the
back of stronger wage growth
- US Personal Income / PCE: largely pre-empted by Friday's GDP, but will
confirm better spending momentum going into Q2, and likely to see core
deflator matching 5-yr high
- US Chicago PMI: expected to stabilize, though other regional surveys
perhaps impart some downside risk
- Attachments: Euro IMM net position, US 10yr future net position, Factset
chart on mentions of tariffs in US earnings reports; various charts on
OPEC breakeven, investment, supply/demand
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As is typical or the last day of the month, there is something of a log jam on the statistical front, which will be accompanied by a further rash of earnings, while the Turkish central bank's quarterly inflation report looks to be the only item of note in event terms. On the 'to digest' menu are China's official NSB PMIs, South Korea's Industrial Production, the as ever quirky German Retail Sales, while ahead lies Eurozone M3 and Lending data, German & Italian CPI, and in the US Personal Income/PCE and Pending Home Sales, and Mexico has provisional Q1 GDP. Highlights on the corporate earnings schedule are likely to be Allergan, Loews, McDonald's and Encana. On the political side of the equation, UK Home Secretary Rudd's resignation kicks off a week which could prove rather long on setback for PM May, with defeat in a number of parliamentary votes related to Brexit likely (allied with threats from Johnson & Davis to quit her cabinet if there is any attempt to keep the UK in the EU Customs Union, and a withdrawal of the DUP from the support and confidence agreement), while Thursday's local elections are hardly likely to offer any crumbs of comfort. It is also worth noting that M&A activity (including the Sainsbury/Asda deal) over the weekend amounts to the grand total of $65 Bln, which will doubtless see a sizeable volume of corporate bond issuance to fund some of the deals. In that respect today also sees the US Treasury announce its May-July quarter funding requirement, with a further sizeable increase expected, and with details on individual auction sizes to be announced on Wednesday.
** Germany / Italy - April prov. CPI **
- Following from fractionally lower than expected French and Spanish HICP prints, today's German and Italian HICP readings are seen unchanged at 1.5% y/y and down to 0.7% y/y from 0.9% respectively. As such they would only serve to reaffirm that the ECB leans to maintaining its accommodation for longer, given the lack of clear upward momentum in headline or core CPI. That said, anecdotal evidence suggests that stronger wage growth in Germany is allowing retailers to edge prices higher, above all for discretionary items, though also for higher end food and drink products.
** U.S.A. - March Personal Income / PCE **
- Today's Personal Income & PCE have been to a large extent pre-empted by Friday's Q4 GDP report, though two aspects will attract attention: firstly the projected 0.4% m/m increase in PCE would confirm that while spending was sluggish in Q4, the momentum going into Q4 was at least positive. Secondly, the PCE deflators are also confirming that the underlying trend is clearly higher, albeit mostly predicated by base effects, with headline seen flat m/m up 2.0% y/y, and the core measure up 0.2% m/m to push the y/y rate up to 1.9% from February's 1.6%, which would also match the highest levels (seen in late 2016/Jan 2017) over the past five years. Pending Home Sales and the Chicago PMI are also due today, with Pending Home Sales seen up 0.5% m/m, echoing the Existing Home Sales reading, though the Pending measure has been rather more sluggish than Existing over the past year. The Chicago PMI is notoriously volatile, but forecasters look for a modest bounce to 58.0, after dropping to 57.4 in March from February's 61.9, therefore continuing to signal considerable underlying strength. The risks relative to forecasts really depend on whether the March drop is construed as leading the falls seen in many of the April regional indices.
RECAP: The Week Ahead - Preview: 30 April to 4 May 2018
* Month end accompanied by the May Day and Japan Golden Week holidays are likely to make for a very slow start to the coming week. Eurozone Q1 GDP and April CPI, PMIs worldwide, US Labour data and Auto Sales accompany the FOMC and RBA meetings, as the US EU steel and aluminium tariff exemption expires, the EC offers a preliminary budget blueprint for 2020 onwards and Brexit negotiations continue. Corporate earnings are again plentiful, while government bond supply sees something of a hiatus.
* A cursory look through forecasts for next week's run of data invites the conclusion that there does not appear to be much that could be a narrative changer, even if some items will inevitably be market movers. Eurozone GDP is expected to slow quite sharply, and preliminary CPI to dip. PMIs are likely to show that a modest dip in China and the Eurozone readings, a construction led rebound in the UK Services PMI, and a dip in the US ISM surveys that would still leave them at robust levels, while US Payrolls are seen around their average for the past year, and US wages expected to be little changed vs March. Much the same can be said of the week's central bank meetings, the FOMC will leave the door firmly open for a June rate hike, Australia's RBA will confirm that a rate hike is unlikely this year, and Norway's central bank will continue to point to a rate hike towards the end of the year. With US Treasury yields threatening a shift into a new range, the expected increase in longer-term Treasury issuance volumes for the May-July quarter will be closely watched.
- Politically, there will be little that can match the spectacle of the leaders of North and South Korea finally meeting and looking poised to finally agree a peace treaty. That said, there will be plenty of interest on whether Trump drops the waiver on Iran sanctions (decsion due by May 12), and indeed to what happens with the exemption of the EU from the US steel and aluminium trade tariffs that are due to expire next week (May 1). The EU Commission's proposals for the EU budget post 2020 are expected to see EU funds re-directed from the CEE region to the southern countries of the EU, whose economies suffered most during the Eurozone crisis, which will likely heighten tensions between the Visegrad group and the founding member countries. Brexit negotiations will also be very much in focus, as EU chief negotiator makes a visit to the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland, and the UK Parliament holds a vote on exiting the Customs Union; the UK also has local council elections on Thursday.
* Corporate Earnings - another very busy week is in prospect, not only in the USA, but also Europe and Asia, highlights by day fore th rest of the week are are as follows:
Tuesday - ANZ Bank, Japan Tobacco, Yamaha; BP; Aetna, ADM, Anadarko Petroleum, Gilead Sciences, HCA Healthcare, Marathon Petroleum, Merck & Co, Mondelez, Pfizer, Under Armour & Itau Unibanco
Wednesday - Lotte Chemcial, Phosagro, J Sainsbury, Lundin Petroleum, Novo Nordisk, Standard Chartered, ADP, AIG, Apache, CBRE, Clorox, CVS Health, Kraft Heinz, Marathon Oil, Mastercard, MetLife, Molson Coors Brewing, Prudential Financial, Yum! Brands; Loblaw , Manulife Financial, Banco BTG Pactual
Thursday - Adani Ports, Larsen & Toubro, NAB, Vedanta; Adidas, Bayer. Ferrari, Fresenius SE & Co, Infineon Technologies, Logitech, MTU Aero Engines, OMV, Solvay; Becton Dickinson,Cardinal Health, CBS, Cigna, DowDuPont, Fluor, ICE, Kellogg, PG&E (Q1, Xerox; Bombardier, Brookfield Renewable, Canadian Natural Resources & SNC-Lavalin
Friday - Alibaba, Rosneft, SK Telecom; Air France-KLM, Assicurazioni Generali, BASF, BMW, BNP Paribas, Erste Group Bank, HSBC, ICAG, Lanxess, Repsol, Rheinmetall, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, Smurfit Kappa, Societe Generale, Swedish Match, Swiss Re, Vestas Wind Systems; Berkshire Hathaway, CBOE Global Markets, Celgene, Newell Brands
- Digesting China PMIs, Korea Production and German Retail sales, Corp M&A;
awaiting Italian and German CPI, US PCE/Personal Income, Pending Home Sales
& Chicago PMI; market volumes likely subdued by month end and holidays
- Germany / Italy CPI: expected to remain subdued, reinforcing ECB caution,
though some evidence of retail pricing power emerging in Germany on the
back of stronger wage growth
- US Personal Income / PCE: largely pre-empted by Friday's GDP, but will
confirm better spending momentum going into Q2, and likely to see core
deflator matching 5-yr high
- US Chicago PMI: expected to stabilize, though other regional surveys
perhaps impart some downside risk
- Attachments: Euro IMM net position, US 10yr future net position, Factset
chart on mentions of tariffs in US earnings reports; various charts on
OPEC breakeven, investment, supply/demand
..........................................................................
********************
** EVENTS PREVIEW **
********************
As is typical or the last day of the month, there is something of a log jam on the statistical front, which will be accompanied by a further rash of earnings, while the Turkish central bank's quarterly inflation report looks to be the only item of note in event terms. On the 'to digest' menu are China's official NSB PMIs, South Korea's Industrial Production, the as ever quirky German Retail Sales, while ahead lies Eurozone M3 and Lending data, German & Italian CPI, and in the US Personal Income/PCE and Pending Home Sales, and Mexico has provisional Q1 GDP. Highlights on the corporate earnings schedule are likely to be Allergan, Loews, McDonald's and Encana. On the political side of the equation, UK Home Secretary Rudd's resignation kicks off a week which could prove rather long on setback for PM May, with defeat in a number of parliamentary votes related to Brexit likely (allied with threats from Johnson & Davis to quit her cabinet if there is any attempt to keep the UK in the EU Customs Union, and a withdrawal of the DUP from the support and confidence agreement), while Thursday's local elections are hardly likely to offer any crumbs of comfort. It is also worth noting that M&A activity (including the Sainsbury/Asda deal) over the weekend amounts to the grand total of $65 Bln, which will doubtless see a sizeable volume of corporate bond issuance to fund some of the deals. In that respect today also sees the US Treasury announce its May-July quarter funding requirement, with a further sizeable increase expected, and with details on individual auction sizes to be announced on Wednesday.
** Germany / Italy - April prov. CPI **
- Following from fractionally lower than expected French and Spanish HICP prints, today's German and Italian HICP readings are seen unchanged at 1.5% y/y and down to 0.7% y/y from 0.9% respectively. As such they would only serve to reaffirm that the ECB leans to maintaining its accommodation for longer, given the lack of clear upward momentum in headline or core CPI. That said, anecdotal evidence suggests that stronger wage growth in Germany is allowing retailers to edge prices higher, above all for discretionary items, though also for higher end food and drink products.
** U.S.A. - March Personal Income / PCE **
- Today's Personal Income & PCE have been to a large extent pre-empted by Friday's Q4 GDP report, though two aspects will attract attention: firstly the projected 0.4% m/m increase in PCE would confirm that while spending was sluggish in Q4, the momentum going into Q4 was at least positive. Secondly, the PCE deflators are also confirming that the underlying trend is clearly higher, albeit mostly predicated by base effects, with headline seen flat m/m up 2.0% y/y, and the core measure up 0.2% m/m to push the y/y rate up to 1.9% from February's 1.6%, which would also match the highest levels (seen in late 2016/Jan 2017) over the past five years. Pending Home Sales and the Chicago PMI are also due today, with Pending Home Sales seen up 0.5% m/m, echoing the Existing Home Sales reading, though the Pending measure has been rather more sluggish than Existing over the past year. The Chicago PMI is notoriously volatile, but forecasters look for a modest bounce to 58.0, after dropping to 57.4 in March from February's 61.9, therefore continuing to signal considerable underlying strength. The risks relative to forecasts really depend on whether the March drop is construed as leading the falls seen in many of the April regional indices.
RECAP: The Week Ahead - Preview: 30 April to 4 May 2018
* Month end accompanied by the May Day and Japan Golden Week holidays are likely to make for a very slow start to the coming week. Eurozone Q1 GDP and April CPI, PMIs worldwide, US Labour data and Auto Sales accompany the FOMC and RBA meetings, as the US EU steel and aluminium tariff exemption expires, the EC offers a preliminary budget blueprint for 2020 onwards and Brexit negotiations continue. Corporate earnings are again plentiful, while government bond supply sees something of a hiatus.
* A cursory look through forecasts for next week's run of data invites the conclusion that there does not appear to be much that could be a narrative changer, even if some items will inevitably be market movers. Eurozone GDP is expected to slow quite sharply, and preliminary CPI to dip. PMIs are likely to show that a modest dip in China and the Eurozone readings, a construction led rebound in the UK Services PMI, and a dip in the US ISM surveys that would still leave them at robust levels, while US Payrolls are seen around their average for the past year, and US wages expected to be little changed vs March. Much the same can be said of the week's central bank meetings, the FOMC will leave the door firmly open for a June rate hike, Australia's RBA will confirm that a rate hike is unlikely this year, and Norway's central bank will continue to point to a rate hike towards the end of the year. With US Treasury yields threatening a shift into a new range, the expected increase in longer-term Treasury issuance volumes for the May-July quarter will be closely watched.
- Politically, there will be little that can match the spectacle of the leaders of North and South Korea finally meeting and looking poised to finally agree a peace treaty. That said, there will be plenty of interest on whether Trump drops the waiver on Iran sanctions (decsion due by May 12), and indeed to what happens with the exemption of the EU from the US steel and aluminium trade tariffs that are due to expire next week (May 1). The EU Commission's proposals for the EU budget post 2020 are expected to see EU funds re-directed from the CEE region to the southern countries of the EU, whose economies suffered most during the Eurozone crisis, which will likely heighten tensions between the Visegrad group and the founding member countries. Brexit negotiations will also be very much in focus, as EU chief negotiator makes a visit to the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland, and the UK Parliament holds a vote on exiting the Customs Union; the UK also has local council elections on Thursday.
* Corporate Earnings - another very busy week is in prospect, not only in the USA, but also Europe and Asia, highlights by day fore th rest of the week are are as follows:
Tuesday - ANZ Bank, Japan Tobacco, Yamaha; BP; Aetna, ADM, Anadarko Petroleum, Gilead Sciences, HCA Healthcare, Marathon Petroleum, Merck & Co, Mondelez, Pfizer, Under Armour & Itau Unibanco
Wednesday - Lotte Chemcial, Phosagro, J Sainsbury, Lundin Petroleum, Novo Nordisk, Standard Chartered, ADP, AIG, Apache, CBRE, Clorox, CVS Health, Kraft Heinz, Marathon Oil, Mastercard, MetLife, Molson Coors Brewing, Prudential Financial, Yum! Brands; Loblaw , Manulife Financial, Banco BTG Pactual
Thursday - Adani Ports, Larsen & Toubro, NAB, Vedanta; Adidas, Bayer. Ferrari, Fresenius SE & Co, Infineon Technologies, Logitech, MTU Aero Engines, OMV, Solvay; Becton Dickinson,Cardinal Health, CBS, Cigna, DowDuPont, Fluor, ICE, Kellogg, PG&E (Q1, Xerox; Bombardier, Brookfield Renewable, Canadian Natural Resources & SNC-Lavalin
Friday - Alibaba, Rosneft, SK Telecom; Air France-KLM, Assicurazioni Generali, BASF, BMW, BNP Paribas, Erste Group Bank, HSBC, ICAG, Lanxess, Repsol, Rheinmetall, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, Smurfit Kappa, Societe Generale, Swedish Match, Swiss Re, Vestas Wind Systems; Berkshire Hathaway, CBOE Global Markets, Celgene, Newell Brands
Dentalfloss
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misprint by Downing street.....Its actually Justin Bieber
Dentalfloss
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24425 lining up
Dentalfloss
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ditto 109.25 on usdjpy
C
cantagril
Dentalfloss
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eurusd 1.2100 seems to be lining up
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
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Not Justin Bieber.....big mistake by the PM
C
cantagril
C
cantagril
Regretting ditching this at 51 - should have taken half off as planned. Just sailed up through 55 and heading rapidly for 80:whistling
C
cantagril
Stop at BE
