Trading the SPX

[Racer]

One word in a sentence I noted (my highlight for clarity), it wasn't may... or could or some other vague word.

Of course, deficits that cumulate to ever-increasing net external debt, with its attendant rise in servicing costs, cannot persist indefinitely. At some point investors will balk at further financing.

 

[Pat494]

One word in a sentence I noted (my highlight for clarity), it wasn't may... or could or some other vague word.

Of course, deficits that cumulate to ever-increasing net external debt, with its attendant rise in servicing costs, cannot persist indefinitely. At some point investors will balk at further financing.

Thanks
Nothing much to worry about then

 

[Racer]

Briefing.com

10-Yr:+17/32..4.4.488%%.. GNMAs:+09/32.. USD/JPY:119.0700.. EUR/USD:1.1684



Bond market continues to bounce higher, knocking 10-yr yields back-off to 4.496% & slanting flatter on the curve. The 2-10-yr yield spread has tightened-up to 8.2, near the tightest levels since Jan 01. The inversion conversation is back on the front page; with the WSJ pointing out that the bond market is still looking for recession. Mark Whitehouse wrote that the flatter curve "is the bond market's way of saying that the Fed's efforts to fight inflation could take a toll on overstretched homeowners and tip the economy into recession," but adds, as Greenspan has lately that "the bond set does have a history of predicting recessions more often than they occur." Of the past 5 inversions the 5 ended in recession.

 

[Racer]

Monitoring the Economy

http://www.treas.gov/offices/economic-policy/macroecon/quarterly_economic_data.pdf

 

[Bez]

An interesting 100 week cycle chart of the SPX......

 

[Bez]

This seems to be a poplar one as well.....

The 155 & 144 weeks

 

[Bez]

I'm somewhat part of that particular mob :cheesy: :cheesy:

60 min SPX :?: Some lovely fib bar counts :cheesy:

 

[Bez]

Thanks for the stars !!

On the 60min SPX still favour the Irregular Flat.

If it is, C must be at least 101% of B or preferably 161.8% of A. In easy lauguage 1248 area or 1239 :cheesy:

Its gone a bit to deep for an Irreg failure & B wasn't really long enough to make a failure more likely :?:

 

[Racer]

Core inflation uses owners' equivalent rent of primary residence and this is one of the reasons why the core has been so low and stable recently but if the housing market were to cool rents would increase and this would then increase the core inflation rate, possibly significantly as it makes up 23.2%


Some further reading

"To determine the so-called owners' equivalent rent, it asks homeowners how much they would have to pay to rent the house in which they live. That figure constitutes about 23.2 percent of the Consumer Price Index, by far its largest component. Food is 14.3 percent and transportation is 17.4 percent, for example."

"CONVERSELY, when housing prices fall, a trend that most people would deem anti-inflationary, and renting becomes more attractive than owning, the index might process the information as evidence that inflation is on the rise"

More


And
Investors retreat from housing market

 

[Bez]

The classic 18.6 years Metonic cycle that the Delta mob seem to get excited about :cheesy:

It comes in March 06 so it will be an interesting time....Last one was at the end of the 1968 high to 1987 high just before the market had a slight bit of trouble to the downside.....

 

[Racer]

22/12
briefing.com
Strength in the Treasury market was equities' best measure of support today. The 10-year note's rally to a 4.37% yield - the best level seen in about two months - caught the market's attention. At the same time, however, the rally garnered attention for another reason: With the recent gains, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields narrowed to just two basis points. Although Greenspan, and Briefing.com, has downplayed the idea that the flattening curve is foreshadowing a significant economic slowdown, the move did not go unnoticed by market bears.

 

[Racer]

Latest weekly sales report from Redbook Research shows national chain store sales were flat in the first four weeks of December compared with November, below the targeted 0.1% gain.

 

[barjon]

...and then there's this

http://finance.uk.myway.com/jsp/nw/...pohare&date=20051227&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw

 

[Racer]

Applications for mortgages fell 6.8% for the week ended Dec. 23 from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis

 

[Bez]

Update on the 144 weeks Chart...

It could be argued a top is in with all the Time & Price hits for the high of 1275 but I still would like to see the one last leg up to 1322 area ( 70.7% ) after a short correction. In a perfect world .... ?? time wise for the 1322 would be end of Feb/ start of March.......

 

[TopIQ]

SPX - Nice fade of the open for $1125

Told you us pro's like to fade the open and here's the trade.

see attached. 45 ticks * $25 = $1125

Drinks would be on me :cheesy:

Happy trading!

 

[Hook Shot]

Julian, if you think that 144/5 may not hold (1)where's your your target for this swing ?
and (2) Do you think we'll the run up into March as usual ?
Cheers
HS

 

[ajaskey]

I suspect the larger degrees of trend call for a swift move to 1170 (a pit-stop) and then onto 1100. I think the question probably is better answered depending on your trading strat as there are obviously going to be smaller swings of which 1245 is clearly a target but I think the strength of the trend may not spend much time there.

I'm thinking a bottom between 1224-1205 from early to mid-March. SPX 1224 is 90 degrees down from 1295 and 1205 is 180 degrees down from 1276 and the midpoint between the 1276 and 1137 full cycle squareouts from the Oct02 bottom at 768.

 

[Hook Shot]

Cheers, Joules....scary but thanks.
Andy, your scenario seems far more bullish where do you see the top post 1224-05 low or have we had it ?

 

[ajaskey]

Cheers, Joules....scary but thanks.
Andy, your scenario seems far more bullish where do you see the top post 1224-05 low or have we had it ?

I expect the SPX over 2500 by 2008. I trade what I see in the charts, but overall I see a very good and stable economy at a time when the yield curve is flat and the FED has significantly reduced MZM growth. The first signs of economic weakness (which should come soon) will have the FED lowering rates and flooding the system with liquidity. Companies really don't need the money as they have tons of cash on the balance sheets so the liquidity will go directly into stocks.

E-wave wise, I see the SPX just completed wave 1 of major wave 3 from the 768 bottom. Wave 3, which I expect to start in March-June and be a monster, will provide better returns than the 1998-2000 move because it will touch all sectors. Watch out when this move is over tho...