Trading the SPX

[lemput]

Hi Joules,
Just read your post... had to read it twice to see what i thought of it and to understand it! I agree that the price must be determined on both sides by risk/reward and by what might/will happen in the future etc. As I was a seller there must of have been a buyer thinking he was getting a good deal. In this case it looks as though I am well safe and on a personal note I am happy buying stocks broadly and at what I consider 'cheaper' valuations. I did fail to clarify as well Joules that I at the moment I am in and out of stock futures from the short side so it was partly supposed to be covered option writing not just punting!
good luck to you mate

 

[Racer]

Okay had the bad news, get rose specs on quick

 

[Racer]

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Foreigners recorded net purchases of U.S. securities totaling $91.3 billion in August, the biggest increase in 16 months, according to the latest data from the Treasury Department.

August's net buying was greater than July's revised foreign net purchases of U.S. securities of $87.5 billion, the previously reported at $87.4 billion, the Treasury said Tuesday in its monthly international capital report.

Foreigners net buying in August was greater than the August U.S. trade deficit in goods and services of $59.03 billion, reported last week by the Commerce Department.

 

[Racer]

Is that the time Joules?

 

[orky]

Signals Service

anybody heard of Markettiming.biz a signals service for the S & P and Nasdaq 100

 

[Racer]

I was surprised to see that the Australian market ended flat at the close because that has been in a real bull market up to now

 

[Racer]

Philadelphia Fed Oct
Business Index 17.3 Vs Sep 2.2

Employment 17.0 Vs Sep 2.7
New Orders 18.6 Vs Sep -0.5
Price Received 32.6 Vs Sep 8.6
Price Paid 67.6 Vs Sep 52.7

 

[Racer]

- Fed's Guynn: Inflation Risks Are Currently 'Elevated' -2-

Guynn said higher energy prices will prove difficult over the near term. "There's also a lot we don't know about how individuals and businesses will adjust to the higher energy costs that are now working their way through the economy," he said.

And with gas prices hovering around $3 a gallon, "consumers may face tough choices" and "consumer spending could slow a bit if caution causes households to reduce borrowing or increase the rate of savings." As for businesses, Guynn said, "I suspect higher energy prices may be causing a temporary spell of caution among businesses, leading them to protect profit margins during a time of uncertainty."

But against those challenges, "the most likely path of the economy for the next several quarters is ongoing respectable growth of (the gross domestic product), employment, and income."

Guynn said that the impact of the hurricanes, while likely to be "temporary," could create challenges. "For the next few months we'll also see an adverse effect on the data that we rely on to judge economic performance" and "I think we'll need to be especially cautious about how we interpret much of the incoming economic data."

The bank president also noted that the outlook for monetary policy is not as certain as it once was, but that "as satisfactory economic expansion resumes, we can return the target rate to a so-called `neutral' setting, which neither stimulates nor restrains the economy."

"Over the last few months, the guidance we have been able to provide on the likely path of policy has been well received in the marketplace," Guynn said. "But we have moved into a new - and in some ways more difficult - period of greater uncertainty, and all of us will have to be ready to respond to new developments."

 

[Pat494]

US events for Thursday 20th Oct

Events:
8.30 Jobless claims P389k F364k
10.00 Leading indicators P-0.2 F-0.5
12.00 Philly Fed survey P2.2 F10.2
4.30 Money Supply

=======================================================================

Yesterday was meant to be the anniversary of the 87 something...that correction thingy and looks like someone forgot to mention it to the bulls.....

What the bears do have in their favour is the underside of the triangle and the meeting of resistances in the SPX.

A lot of short covering and opportunistic buying our of a bullish triangle and one which looks ominously like a reversal spike which should be fully retraced not long after the open on thursday.

Sessions like these test the money managment placement so the bears should keep in mind that there is no hard and fast rules that can be applied to the market but can be applied to the capital exposure.

A pass of the apex of the triangle release yesterday would void further upside movement.

The overlap of the DJIND into wave one is not the same degree of trend so the count remains valid.

Of the high to low the SPX has retraced just under .382% and of the wave three (wave four has) retraced just under 50% and likely the market will quickly fill this and then retrace.

The VIX backed off in a very big way and has thus assisted in the relief of some stretched and stressed indicia. The put/call ratio ran high again which is bullish ona contrarian basis so I am looking for this to quickly subside in thursdays session. The lift in volume should not be misread too quickly as a market needs to display cosistancy of action and not just one days movement.

All possibilities being equal the probabilities still point to more downside.

Spot on Julian for yesterday
More of the same today ??

 

[Racer]

Blame it on the hurricanes, so 'there, there, it will get better soon'... pat, pat


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. consumer confidence levels dropped for a second straight month and slipped to their weakest level in two years in October, as consumers worried about the impact of the recent hurricanes and high gasoline prices.

The Conference Board, a private research group, said Tuesday its index of consumer confidence for the current month fell to 85.0 from a revised 87.5 in September and 105.5 in August. Economists had expected to see the index to gain some ground and come in at 88.0. The October reading was the worst since the 81.7 seen in October 2003.

"Much of the decline in confidence over the past two months can be attributed to the recent hurricanes, pump shock and a weakening labor market," said Conference Board economist Lynn Franco. The drop in the expectations reading in the report suggests that along with the likelihood of high winter heating bills, "some cheer" may be taken out of the Christmas holiday spending season, she said, adding "in order to avoid a blue Christmas, retailers will need to lure shoppers with sales and discounts."

The Conference Board said in its report that its present situation index fell to 108.2 from September's 110.4, while the expectations index slipped to 69.5 from 72.3.

 

[Racer]

Intl Paper CEO: Raw Material Costs Up 15c-20c/Shr In 4Q

By Christopher Scinta
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Higher costs cut into International Paper Co.'s (IP) third-quarter results, and are expected to continue into the fourth quarter.

Chief Executive John Faraci said during a conference call to discuss the company's third-quarter results that hurricanes Katrina and Rita squeezed the company's profit margins and their aftermath continue to keep costs for energy and transportation high.

International Paper's manufacturing operations are performing very efficiently, but couldn't overcome the much higher costs during the quarter and costs will be even higher in the fourth quarter, he said.

During the fourth quarter, raw material costs will be 15 cents to 20 cents a share higher than the third quarter, Faraci said.

 

[Racer]

Wall Street after hours - Amazon shares fall in brisk trade - UPDATE 1

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- Amazon.com Inc switched hands at a dizzying pace and shed nearly 7% of their value after the company reported a fourth-quarter outlook that failed to impress investors.

Now down 9%
Was just thinking about shorting it when I saw an email from them reducing the free delivery purchase price level... thought they must be desperate to sell books

 

[hornblower]

Jimmy Cagney fan??

 

[Racer]

Targets of 1140 on S&P and dow 10K opening up

nasC if fail 2050 target 1900

but some critical areas to get over first, but if clear then bears are out in force big time

 

[Racer]

8:30am 10/28/05 U.S. GIVES NO ESTIMATE OF HURRICANE IMPACT ON Q3 GDP

8:30am 10/28/05 U.S. GDP UP 3.6% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

No estimate... hmm, that is a bit convenient

 

[hornblower]

<table cellpadding='0' cellspacing='0'><tr><td><a href='http:

well I was trying to post a chart from advfn , they have chart grabber , works ok on advfn
but not on t2win

 

[hornblower]

<table cellpadding='0' cellspacing='0'><tr><td><a href='http://www.advfn.com' title='Free stock charts & share prices from ADVFN.COM'
just cannot seem to get it to work

 

[hornblower]

<table cellpadding='0' cellspacing='0'><tr><td><a href='http://www.advfn.com' title='Free stock charts & share prices from ADVFN.COM'>
grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

 

[frugi]

You can't use HTML on trade2win, sorry. Can you get the chart up on ADVFN, right click it, save the image as a jpg and then post it as an ordinary attachment?

 

[hornblower]

I put it up on advfn but then its gone ,
I think its got somthing to do with the pop up blocker
will give jpg a try
thanks
H

ps using aol ( that may be the problem )