hornblower
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posted a chart at last
Racer
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Racer said:No estimate... hmm, that is a bit convenient
If you want to have a look at the figures...
http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn/home/gdp.htm
Racer
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How are disasters (such as hurricanes and earthquakes) treated in the national accounts?
http://www.bea.gov/bea/faq/national/disasters.htm
http://www.bea.gov/bea/faq/national/disasters.htm
Racer
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(MarketWatch) - Real U.S. consumer spending declined for the second straight month in September, giving the U.S. economy considerable headwind as the fourth quarter began.
Adjusted for inflation, real spending fell 0.4% in September after dropping 1% in August, the Commerce Department reported Monday. It's the first back-to-back decline in spending in 15 years.Full article
Adjusted for inflation, real spending fell 0.4% in September after dropping 1% in August, the Commerce Department reported Monday. It's the first back-to-back decline in spending in 15 years.Full article
frugi
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Joules, as you know, EW is not my field at all (though sometimes I unwisely try to claim a square inch of poorly reticulated grass at its edge ); nevertheless I was struck by some clean 5/3 patterns and thought I'd post a potential wave five Christmas rally prediction, just for fun. Looks good for 1280, as long as recent 1170-80 lows hold.
If the current corrective abc turns into an impulsive 12345 that drops out of the channel, then the prediction is negated. :?:
Any comments you have on this chart would be much appreciated. Thanks.
); nevertheless I was struck by some clean 5/3 patterns and thought I'd post a potential wave five Christmas rally prediction, just for fun. Looks good for 1280, as long as recent 1170-80 lows hold. If the current corrective abc turns into an impulsive 12345 that drops out of the channel, then the prediction is negated. :?:
Any comments you have on this chart would be much appreciated. Thanks.
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frugi
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Thank you for the excellent surf lesson Joules. A considered and illuminating reply, as ever.
I never knew wave 4 wasn't allowed to encroach on wave 1. I used to quite the fan of Wolfe waves (which rather depend on this illegal encroachment) and I foolishly assumed WW followed much the same rules as EW.
I never knew wave 4 wasn't allowed to encroach on wave 1. I used to quite the fan of Wolfe waves (which rather depend on this illegal encroachment) and I foolishly assumed WW followed much the same rules as EW.
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Racer
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Nas has potential island reversal set up appearing, also S&P is now approaching the underside the trendline of the rising wedge which broke to the downside not long ago, so bulls need to keep up the stunning pace of the last week and break strongly to the upside of this line before the bears give up
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- Freddie Mac To Cut 1H '05 Net By $220M On Acctg Errors -2-
Freddie said the miscalculation of interest income stemmed from an error in a legacy computer system used to compute interest on certain mortgage-related securities that accrue interest on a basis other than a calendar month. The system over-accrued interest income beginning in the month of purchase, with over-accruals generally decreasing as the security paid down, and reversing in the month the security was sold or matured.
The company expects to reduce reported first-quarter income by $136 million to reflect the cumulative overstatement occurring in prior years, and by another $33 million for the overstatement occurring in the 2005 first quarter.
Freddie also expects to reduce reported second-quarter earnings by $51 million to reflect the overstatement occurring in that period.
The company noted that there is no change in the board's authorization for the repurchase of common shares or increase in preferred shares. In early October, the board authorized the repurchase of up to $2 billion in common stock and the issuance of up to $2 billion in preferred stock.
Freddie's shares closed Monday at $61.24.
Freddie said the miscalculation of interest income stemmed from an error in a legacy computer system used to compute interest on certain mortgage-related securities that accrue interest on a basis other than a calendar month. The system over-accrued interest income beginning in the month of purchase, with over-accruals generally decreasing as the security paid down, and reversing in the month the security was sold or matured.
The company expects to reduce reported first-quarter income by $136 million to reflect the cumulative overstatement occurring in prior years, and by another $33 million for the overstatement occurring in the 2005 first quarter.
Freddie also expects to reduce reported second-quarter earnings by $51 million to reflect the overstatement occurring in that period.
The company noted that there is no change in the board's authorization for the repurchase of common shares or increase in preferred shares. In early October, the board authorized the repurchase of up to $2 billion in common stock and the issuance of up to $2 billion in preferred stock.
Freddie's shares closed Monday at $61.24.
Racer
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--Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said Wednesday the U.S. economy is "pretty strong," with "a lot of momentum."
Current investments in energy, for example, including refineries, coal, and "the railroads that deliver the coal," have "a lot of momentum," Poole said after a speech at Lindenwood University in suburban St. Louis.
With those kinds of investments, "you don't plan to build them and operate them in a day," he said. "So there's a substantial amount of investment coming."
Still, he emphasized, that could change. Other sectors "could turn quickly," so that's not his "best guess," he said.
As for the possibility of future Federal Reserve rate increases, Poole said, "We've been on a course of raising rates," apparently "with more to come." But he cautioned that incoming economic data could change that.
"Policy is driven by new information," he said.
Poole also said that current expectations are for core inflation of about 2.25%. "I would put a higher probability on an upside surprise from that than a downside surprise." He said that called for Federal Reserve policy that is "sort of risk averse."
Current investments in energy, for example, including refineries, coal, and "the railroads that deliver the coal," have "a lot of momentum," Poole said after a speech at Lindenwood University in suburban St. Louis.
With those kinds of investments, "you don't plan to build them and operate them in a day," he said. "So there's a substantial amount of investment coming."
Still, he emphasized, that could change. Other sectors "could turn quickly," so that's not his "best guess," he said.
As for the possibility of future Federal Reserve rate increases, Poole said, "We've been on a course of raising rates," apparently "with more to come." But he cautioned that incoming economic data could change that.
"Policy is driven by new information," he said.
Poole also said that current expectations are for core inflation of about 2.25%. "I would put a higher probability on an upside surprise from that than a downside surprise." He said that called for Federal Reserve policy that is "sort of risk averse."
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- Fannie Mae Identifies Almost $11B In Accounting Errors
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Housing finance giant Fannie Mae (FNM) on Thursday reiterated that it has identified almost $11 billion in errors related to its hedge accounting and accounting for mortgage commitments as of Dec. 31, 2004.
Fannie Mae, which is in the midst of a comprehensive review of its accounting practices, disclosed the information in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The company said it is still working to quantify the impact of the errors on its financial statement, but expects the impact to be material.
The company said it misapplied one hedge accounting rule for its derivatives and that as a result of the error expects to record an after-tax loss of about $8.4 billion as of Dec. 31, 2004.
Additionally, the company said it misapplied cash flow accounting criteria for its mortgage commitments and estimated the amount of after-tax losses relating to mortgage commitments deferred in accumulated other comprehensive income was about $2.4 billion as of Dec. 31, 2004.
In addition, Fannie Mae said it identified errors related to the classification of investment securities, assumptions used in estimating amortization rates, guaranty accounting, accounting for low income housing tax credit investments and investments in three synthetic fuel partnerships.
Fannie Mae, the largest agency issuer of mortgage-related securities, has said its previous financial statements since 2001 should no longer be relied on as a result of the errors.
"Based on our current assessment, Fannie Mae believes that completion of its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004, which will include Fannie Mae's restated results, is not likely to occur prior to the second half of 2006," the filing said.
Fannie Mae said it is committed to devoting all necessary resources to complete the restatement as soon as possible. It estimated restatement-related costs would total more than $560 million for 2005.
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Housing finance giant Fannie Mae (FNM) on Thursday reiterated that it has identified almost $11 billion in errors related to its hedge accounting and accounting for mortgage commitments as of Dec. 31, 2004.
Fannie Mae, which is in the midst of a comprehensive review of its accounting practices, disclosed the information in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The company said it is still working to quantify the impact of the errors on its financial statement, but expects the impact to be material.
The company said it misapplied one hedge accounting rule for its derivatives and that as a result of the error expects to record an after-tax loss of about $8.4 billion as of Dec. 31, 2004.
Additionally, the company said it misapplied cash flow accounting criteria for its mortgage commitments and estimated the amount of after-tax losses relating to mortgage commitments deferred in accumulated other comprehensive income was about $2.4 billion as of Dec. 31, 2004.
In addition, Fannie Mae said it identified errors related to the classification of investment securities, assumptions used in estimating amortization rates, guaranty accounting, accounting for low income housing tax credit investments and investments in three synthetic fuel partnerships.
Fannie Mae, the largest agency issuer of mortgage-related securities, has said its previous financial statements since 2001 should no longer be relied on as a result of the errors.
"Based on our current assessment, Fannie Mae believes that completion of its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004, which will include Fannie Mae's restated results, is not likely to occur prior to the second half of 2006," the filing said.
Fannie Mae said it is committed to devoting all necessary resources to complete the restatement as soon as possible. It estimated restatement-related costs would total more than $560 million for 2005.
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Racer
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--The U.S. trade imbalance ballooned 11% during September, setting a record as sales of civilian aircraft plunged while purchases of natural gas and consumer goods climbed.
The U.S. deficit in international trade of goods and services widened to $66.11 billion from a revised $59.35 billion in August, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The August shortfall was previously estimated at $59.03 billion.
Exports fell 2.6%, while imports rose 2.4%, pushing the September trade gap way above expectations. A Dow Jones-CNBC survey of 22 economists had forecast a deficit of $61.20 billion.
The U.S. deficit in international trade of goods and services widened to $66.11 billion from a revised $59.35 billion in August, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The August shortfall was previously estimated at $59.03 billion.
Exports fell 2.6%, while imports rose 2.4%, pushing the September trade gap way above expectations. A Dow Jones-CNBC survey of 22 economists had forecast a deficit of $61.20 billion.
Racer
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S&P needs to continue above 1230 or it is a touch of the underside of long term trendline from early 2003
The market went up yesterday on this news according to briefing.com
the broad-based rally that closed eight of ten sectors higher was ignited by... a strong bond auction. At 1:00 ET, the Treasury Dept. sold $13 bln in 10-year notes at a yield of 4.578% and, when indirect bidder participation (i.e. foreign central banks) checked in at a whopping 55.6% - more than twice this year's average of 25% - the 10-year (+18/32) continued to climb, eventually closing the yield at 4.56%. Since high interest rates have continued to be a restraint on the boost that better than expected corporate profits have awarded roughly two-thirds of the S&P 500, the pullback in borrowing costs spurred widespread buying efforts.
A viewpoint about interest rates Here
Today there were further comments from europe about risks of higher inflation
The market went up yesterday on this news according to briefing.com
the broad-based rally that closed eight of ten sectors higher was ignited by... a strong bond auction. At 1:00 ET, the Treasury Dept. sold $13 bln in 10-year notes at a yield of 4.578% and, when indirect bidder participation (i.e. foreign central banks) checked in at a whopping 55.6% - more than twice this year's average of 25% - the 10-year (+18/32) continued to climb, eventually closing the yield at 4.56%. Since high interest rates have continued to be a restraint on the boost that better than expected corporate profits have awarded roughly two-thirds of the S&P 500, the pullback in borrowing costs spurred widespread buying efforts.
A viewpoint about interest rates Here
Today there were further comments from europe about risks of higher inflation
Racer
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I was looking at the Dow Trans index as it had move up recently a lot.
There has been a change in the components of the index.. only 20 companies on it and the two that were removed
Northwest Airlines, went down 5.36% on Friday and
Delta Airlines went down 8.5% on Friday
Those added
Jetblue went up 1.6%
Overseas Shipholding went up 2.6%
So a great distortion to the index compared to the past by changing of the components
There has been a change in the components of the index.. only 20 companies on it and the two that were removed
Northwest Airlines, went down 5.36% on Friday and
Delta Airlines went down 8.5% on Friday
Those added
Jetblue went up 1.6%
Overseas Shipholding went up 2.6%
So a great distortion to the index compared to the past by changing of the components
Racer
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Greenspans comments about the deficit
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20051114/default.htm
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20051114/default.htm
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