Trading the E-mini

5th March, 2013

05-03-201307-46-27_zps3647c3d6.png


We poked a tick above the range (and long term highs) in the Globex
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI @ 10am and economic optimism.

Off the open, looking for either a ‘peek up and fail’ or another drive up.
If we do come down, looking at 1523.75 and 1518.75 as potential support.
1524.50 was also last Monday/Thursday high so is the point we broke out from for longer term traders.

Yesterday’s Range – 1507/1510.50 -> 1526
Yesterday’s Value – 1511.50 -> 1518.50
Overnight Range – 1524.50 ->1530.25

BTW – I see these numbers as significant but don’t really think about them in terms of support or resistance, rather than potential turning points from either side.
 
Prep#2 - 5/3/13

Am very aware of the the VPOC in the overnight session being right on the high at 1530 and that price has been in this 2pt zone all morning.

If it opens in this area then I am on high alert to take a position in the first 3 mins of the session. Direction taken will be based upon the price action.
 
One last thing to add - not only looking at R>S at the high but also burying down into this and rejection of yesterday's range around 26
 
Placed a trade at 9:55 /YM bought at 14214 we were already up 90 points, but the internals show no signs of letting up.

As the time I writing this 10:44, and it shows know sign of slowing down this point. I am still keeping an eye on it and moving my stop loss in increments.
 
Well, I missed that 1525 entry even though I was staring at it last night. Guess I missed it like Pete. Nothing to be done right now.

EDIT: Just realized I'm posting in the ES thread, not general S&P. Rob, would you prefer this be kept to ES only, or is S&P related stuff ok?
 
VielGeld said:
Well, I missed that 1525 entry even though I was staring at it last night. Guess I missed it like Pete. Nothing to be done right now.

EDIT: Just realized I'm posting in the ES thread, not general S&P. Rob, would you prefer this be kept to ES only, or is S&P related stuff ok?
Click to expand...

All cash and futures indices are welcome here :)
 
Last night Bought some OTM weekly RUT calls when the RUT was under 910 now it is around 925 closed half for a small profit , the premium jumped i am thinking to let the rest run , i have until Friday but 940 level isn't that far .
 
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That's a big shelf forming at 38.75 with continued distribution down towards it. Will it hold?
 
robster970 said:
That's a big shelf forming at 38.75 with continued distribution down towards it. Will it hold?
Click to expand...

So far it seems to have held, but the advancing/declining issues have been steadily going down since 12:00... the only thing holding up is the volume, if we get some negative volume in this last 30 minutes, I would suspect we would blow through the shelf. We are just now starting to get negative volume at 3:21 let's see what how that plays out.
 
Made getting 1pt hard work today.......

18:57:13 CME S 153925 ES Mar13
20:30:57 CME B 153825 ES Mar13

Don't normally trade this late but felt that cracking 38.75 would have gone to 36.75 - seems 37.50 is being quite heavily defended. It does appear to be distributing down but I haven't got until the end of time to wait for it to do this. Seems like the best opportunity was long from the open but the first 3-4 mins were very ambiguous and it felt like a 2-way auction which made me hold off. Ah well.

Prep tomorrow morning as usual folks.

e2a - 20mins later at about 20:50 it did trade at 36.75
 
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wino59 said:
So far it seems to have held, but the advancing/declining issues have been steadily going down since 12:00... the only thing holding up is the volume, if we get some negative volume in this last 30 minutes, I would suspect we would blow through the shelf. We are just now starting to get negative volume at 3:21 let's see what how that plays out.
Click to expand...

20 mins later and volume is holding and rising, generally at the end of the day I look for that huge down bar on the up/down volume to determine if a huge sell off is in the works and so far so good, but there is still 15 mins left.
 
Prep#1 - 6/3/13

So yesterday made a new high and it was interesting to see that quite some volume was traded up around 40's. Asian session was settled and held, Europe is testing a little higher now but ON volume for this time of day is a little low. My bias is long and I'm looking for either a strong rejection of a new high telling me that sellers are asserting themselves or a sell-off to test for value back to a candidate area to get an entry long.

Candidate areas:

29/31
23/26
18/20
 
robster970 said:
................. My bias is long and I'm looking for either a strong rejection of a new high telling me that sellers are asserting themselves or a sell-off to test for value back to a candidate area to get an entry long............
Click to expand...

Rob

Assuming it pans out like that, a question if I may:

Does the momentum of the down move affect your thinking?
 
robster970 said:
Absolutely Jon - why?
Click to expand...

Dunno really:). I always struggle with it - price momentum can be there as price gets sucked along by a vacuum (lack of willing participants on the other side) or pumped along by pressure from one side or the other.

I always look for price to arrive at my entry zone with a bit of oomph behind it rather than just staggering through (although I'm trading retracements I am, in effect, going in on a break out if you see what I mean). Similarly with exits - quick to go if it staggers to the level, slower if oomph behind it. But do I favour vacuum oomph or pressure oomph?
 
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