Trading the E-mini

barjon said:
Dunno really:). I always struggle with it - price momentum can be there as price gets sucked along by a vacuum (lack of willing participants on the other side) or pumped along by pressure from one side or the other.

I always look for price to arrive at my entry zone with a bit of oomph behind it rather than just staggering through (although I'm trading retracements I am, in effect, going in on a break out if you see what I mean). Similarly with exits - quick to go if it staggers to the level, slower if oomph behind it. But do I favour vacuum oomph or pressure oomph?
Click to expand...

I think judging pace is the most important skill to develop in trading.
 
Prep#2 - 6/3/13

So pre-mkt volume is quite high again for this time of day, it's pushed up to a new high in the European session and the VPOC is on yesterday's high. It will be interesting to see how the buyers get on at the open and whether they can continue to drive price higher or whether it will run out of steam fairly quickly. This also mean 41/42 is in play for me today.
 
6th March, 2013

06-03-201308-39-30_zps647e4133.png


10:00 AM – Factory Orders

We have broken out of the range, so now we see if we can stay out of it or drop back in. Will be considering 3 scenarios today
- Move straight up
- Bounce off the top of the range (or top of value)
- Start a move back down

Volume has been pretty good of late but yesterday was a real churn. Eyes on the DOM to see if we have more 3-4k levels on both sides. If so, look to play the range.

Yesterdays Range 1524.50 (overnight)/1532 – 1542.75
Yesterdays Value 1537.75 – 1541.25
Overnight – 1536.75 – 1544.75

Line in the sand 1530.
There’s a big gap between pit session high of Monday 1526 and Tuesdays low of 1532.
Below that looking at 1518.

No levels above.
 
9:36:10 Shorted 1543.
Bidders stacking underneath. Big level on profile @43.75 meaning both buyers and sellers traded @ that point. I thought buyers in a worse position than sellers up there, so thought of them bailing . Delta also down 10k off open. Tick moving down. Volume moving up

Scaled @ 1542, then at 1451.50 because offers were stacked, there and I was concerned it might shoot back up if they flipped it.

It poked into yesterdays value (1541.25) area and then started to move back up, so out the rest @ b/e as it rejected yesterdays value.

Now watching for this range on the profile 1541 -1544 for some horseplay/spoofery and play into the range.
 
Out of my RUT OTM calls , still Bullish may have a chance to re enter at cheaper premium ....
 
It does feel like it is trying very, very hard to distribute

BTW - that was a nice trade off the open Pedro
 
tar said:
Yes bought @ 0.05 , could really pay off if we have a continuous rally ...
Click to expand...

I don't recall ever knowing anyone who traded RUT or options on it (y)
But I'm on the opposite side of the world so take it with a grain of salt. :)

Peter
 
14:38:55 CME S 154275 ES Mar13
15:59:24 CME B 153950 ES Mar13

That's more like it......got sticky at the low there.

@Jon - today was a good example of adapting to pace - this is how I went into the session:

- It's been trending quite hard for the last couple of days and it's made a new high - in that period it has been propelled in the European sessions. Today the European session was a bit sluggish. Clue?
- It did make a new high today but it was without any gusto or urgency
- When it opened at 14:30 right above the level it was pretty choppy - we had the one definitive move that myself and Pedro got on but he cleverly took some money off the table early whilst I chose to stick with it because there was a lack of buyers - not my smartest move but I did have conviction in there being more profit taking going on.
- It ground down quite slowly, there was no point in me hanging around for 29/31 - there was just no sellers there
- Delta has been flicking between +16 and -2k - nobody really wants to sell yet so there is no imperative for a big sell off yet.
 

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wackypete2 said:
I don't recall ever knowing anyone who traded RUT or options on it (y)
But I'm on the opposite side of the world so take it with a grain of salt. :)

Peter
Click to expand...

Yes SPX options has much higher volume but still the RUT yesterday traded 80K options contracts ...
 
robster970 said:
..............It did make a new high today but it was without any gusto or urgency...........
Click to expand...

Thx Rob

Gusto and urgency: Just price movement and pace, or lack of participation, order book, your innate "feel", or what?

I can see that the urgency to sell went away (albeit that it seemed to go away a few times before your flat line :)) and that's the sort of thing I look for on the lower time frames to see an assumed end to a retracement for entry, or at target zone for exit.

I suppose I'm just making another stab at trying to understand what's happening via DOM, T&S as opposed to looking at nothing but price action.
 
barjon said:
Gusto and urgency: Just price movement and pace, or lack of participation, order book, your innate "feel", or what?
Click to expand...

Chart + Orderbook + Feel

This might sound esoteric but go with me.......

So if I say 40mph to you, you have a general idea how fast that is don't you?

If you were in your car and I covered up the speedo, you would probably be able to guage when you're doing 40mph just through experience; the sound of the engine, the speed at which objects are going past you, the feel of the car through the steering wheel, the terrain you are driving in, the weather conditions, etc, etc

Same thing regarding today - the combination of chart+orderbook+feel told me we were doing about 15mph today.

There isn't a magic answer Jon - you just have to expose yourself to the various speeds of the market, trade it, learn to feel comfortable with it.
 
robster970 said:
Chart + Orderbook + Feel

This might sound esoteric but go with me.......

So if I say 40mph to you, you have a general idea how fast that is don't you?

If you were in your car and I covered up the speedo, you would probably be able to guage when you're doing 40mph just through experience; the sound of the engine, the speed at which objects are going past you, the feel of the car through the steering wheel, the terrain you are driving in, the weather conditions, etc, etc

Same thing regarding today - the combination of chart+orderbook+feel told me we were doing about 15mph today.

There isn't a magic answer Jon - you just have to expose yourself to the various speeds of the market, trade it, learn to feel comfortable with it.
Click to expand...

Rob

I'm pretty comfortable that I'm doing about 30mph but the guy with the camera is pretty hot and it might be 33 mph which would be 3 points (unless I can get my missus to take it) :)
 
Prep#1 - 7/3/13

So after trading in an 8pt range yesterday just below the new high, it is becoming clear that in addition to the levels mentioned yesterday, that 36/37 is being supported as nobody wants to trade below here right now. Below this level (traded volume wise) is fresh air until you get to the 18/19 area. My current thoughts are that if 36/37 does go, there is a nice short opportunity.

So bias is marginally on the long side but will shift to short a short term 'short' (test back for value before continuing) if 36/37 goes.

As we wind up for NFP I don't think we'll see too much action today - most major participants have paid the vast majority of their bets I suspect, looking at the volume traded between 36 and 44
 
robster970 said:
As we wind up for NFP I don't think we'll see too much action today - most major participants have paid the vast majority of their bets I suspect, looking at the volume traded between 36 and 44
Click to expand...

Today we have the ECB , and US banks stress test results after the close , i think it is hard to stay in a tight range today .
 
tar said:
Today we have the ECB , and US banks stress test results after the close , i think it is hard to stay in a tight range today .
Click to expand...

Didn't notice the US data - also seemed to have missed Draghi press conference today.

You're right tar - thanks for the heads up.
 
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Rollover today, will not do pre-market prep today and tomorrow.

I will be looking for opportunities for shorter term trades today and then tomorrow will be watching to see how people trade around the 'new' levels in the market.

Certainly, I wont be looking at today to be setting decent levels for tomorrow.
 
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