Trading Naked - Part 2

[HawkTrader]

Cool chart Rob!!

I never noticed this, surely it must have been news driven to have such a sharp fall? An interesting thing I've noticed is the same thing happened over pretty much all currencies pairs a few months ago on a Friday. I always consider Fridays to be pretty choppy but it seems just once every few months something mental happens. I heard somewhere that it's on a certain Friday every few months that FX Optinions close so perhaps that is the cause?

 

[Bloodhound]

TBH I try and avoid thinking too much about the whys and wherefores but today was NFP day, so I have mainly stayed away, but this looked like an interesting opportunity. I always like it when price does what I would expect it to do - in this case bounce at an obvious support level...

Anyway, I've closed both positions out just above the TP as the weekend now starts!!

 

[HawkTrader]

Ah yes, NFP I remember now. That explains a bit.

Phew, you know, I could never trade at this time, especially on a Friday!! I don't know how you do it, Rob.

 

[Bloodhound]

Ah yes, NFP I remember now. That explains a bit.

Phew, you know, I could never trade at this time, especially on a Friday!! I don't know how you do it, Rob.

Remember, tiny stakes atm whilst moving house. Had a quick scan and this one was 'screaming'!!

On a more serious note, I genuinely believe that the only way I will ever get any better at trading is by watching price - no book, website, mentor etc. can teach that IMO. The last couple of weeks or so have felt like pre-season training, just to keep my eyes in tune with what they are meant to be seeing. The thing for me is that I need to take 'ownership' of my trades (even at tiny stakes) as I am sure that the subconcious remembers a lot more once money is on the table. A totally different subject, and I have a friend who would be much better placed to expand on this, but the brain remembers things that are both pleasurable (winning) and not so pleasurable (losing). The more winners and losers I have the more I think my brain is absorbing the visual stimuli that charts produce which in turn should make me better at 'filtering' the good from the bad.

Hmmm - maybe a bit deep for a Friday evening!!

Time for the pub

 

[HawkTrader]

I genuinely believe that the only way I will ever get any better at trading is by watching price - no book, website, mentor etc. can teach that IMO.

Wise, wise words.

 

[HawkTrader]

Hi everyone, hope you're all having a great weekend.

I've just been placing some numbers into my spread sheet and I was quite surprised by the results! Turns out I've had 100% wins with the 1-2-3 continuations and reversals! Of course there have been losses, but those were invalid setups where I was not trading to my plan. When the price didn’t break, trend hadn’t changed, etc. I also discovered that I have a 93% win percentage when trailing my stop behind price, with a ratio of 3.3. When I first began trading I thought traders were ‘taking the Mickey’ when they said “Stick to your plan and you’ll be alright!” I realized they were right after a while, but this is fundamental proof of that! I’m pretty sure if I was to trade completely to my plan like a robot, I’d have a 90%+ winning percentage and a high R:R ratio with the odd unlucky trade. Can only dream! :whistling

 

[trendie]

Hi everyone, hope you're all having a great weekend.

I've just been placing some numbers into my spread sheet and I was quite surprised by the results! Turns out I've had 100% wins with the 1-2-3 continuations and reversals! Of course there have been losses, but those were invalid setups where I was not trading to my plan. When the price didn’t break, trend hadn’t changed, etc. I also discovered that I have a 93% win percentage when trailing my stop behind price, with a ratio of 3.3. When I first began trading I thought traders were ‘taking the Mickey’ when they said “Stick to your plan and you’ll be alright!” I realized they were right after a while, but this is fundamental proof of that! I’m pretty sure if I was to trade completely to my plan like a robot, I’d have a 90%+ winning percentage and a high R:R ratio with the odd unlucky trade. Can only dream! :whistling

excellent stuff, HT.
all you need to do is describe your definition of 1-2-3!
is it the same as KJs version?
have a great week, all.

 

[Bloodhound]

excellent stuff, HT.
all you need to do is describe your definition of 1-2-3!
is it the same as KJs version?
have a great week, all.

In no way meant to be controversial, but does it matter? Maybe through lack of trading of late and the ability to do some thinking, is there any reason why a 1-2-3 (either reversal or continuation) shouldn't work most of the time, providing one has seen a logical reason for the 'pattern' in the first place? By that I mean, if price stalls at a pre-defined level, should one just simply accept that it has just stalled and trade accordingly?

 

[HawkTrader]

excellent stuff, HT.
all you need to do is describe your definition of 1-2-3!
is it the same as KJs version?
have a great week, all.

'Kay... but it'll cost ya!

I'll try to post a more detailed response later, remember I'm still a complete newb. I don't like getting my head into things before the trading session, even if that thing is trading. Here is the 1-2-3 reversal though, a few pages back.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...580-trading-naked-part-2-a-70.html#post996306

In no way meant to be controversial, but does it matter? Maybe through lack of trading of late and the ability to do some thinking, is there any reason why a 1-2-3 (either reversal or continuation) shouldn't work most of the time, providing one has seen a logical reason for the 'pattern' in the first place? By that I mean, if price stalls at a pre-defined level, should one just simply accept that it has just stalled and trade accordingly?

Rob! I love the way you look at trading! Of course there isn't, and that was my point. As long as one sticks to their plan, and only enter very obvious screaming trades, there is no reason why one couldn't experience wins most of the time. And these 1-2-3's are so simple, how can anyone go wrong? :clap:

 

[mb325]

Just about managed to wake up and get to my PC in time for this one! Notes on the chart.

 

[HawkTrader]

With you on that one!!

 

[mb325]

Up 100 odd pips but stoploss only has 30 locked in and I'm struggling to find anywhere rational to move my stop to...so taken 1/4 of the original trade off the table again. I think a better trader would've added at around 440 and really capitalised on this move but I'm not quite there yet!

 

[trendie]

In no way meant to be controversial, but does it matter? Maybe through lack of trading of late and the ability to do some thinking, is there any reason why a 1-2-3 (either reversal or continuation) shouldn't work most of the time, providing one has seen a logical reason for the 'pattern' in the first place? By that I mean, if price stalls at a pre-defined level, should one just simply accept that it has just stalled and trade accordingly?

yes, I agree. I think a 1-2-3 reversal at price extremes are more valid ones than ones arbitrarily in "mid-price" action.
wasnt thinking when I posted that. 1-2-3s more likely to work after an extended run with "clear air" between congestion blocks.

EDIT: nice start to the week, no?

 

[neil]

Re: Trading Naked - Part 2 - Where are you ?

COME ON YOU NAKEDS

Here is a 5 minute euro trade based on price bouncing around 14780 + IB on 14774.
Price then reverses around Pin Bar ( Rankones thread on FF for the idea plus bits picked up elsewhere). Bit like a toolbox - select what seems appropriate for the time hence, as time goes on, I find it difficult to set out rules to be rigidly followed for every trade.
Notice the coiling up of price at 14787...pinbar then ignored since it's in traffic and under a down trendline. Doesn't work everytime of course but it gives one several reasons (confluence?) to have some confidence in a trade.

 

[neil]

How many Indicators on your chart ?

 

[neil]

Cable 5 Minute.

What happened to beachcomber etc- have you buggered off to the pub without me

 

[Bloodhound]

Cable 5 Minute.

What happened to beachcomber etc- have you buggered off to the pub without me

Still here but still moving house so not around very much at the moment I'm afraid.

Not made it to the pub yet but will be heading that way later!!

 

[mb325]

Looked very choppy this morning and then this happened in the 3 minutes it took me to go make some breakfast, first target would've been hit almost to the pip (+41), stop at BE + 1 looking very safe atm.

Stuff like this really makes you feel like packing up for the week (or year).

p.s forgot to note on chart about 'context'. Price broke down through daily low but then found a lot of support and retraced quite quickly, imo a higher low after this is a very good indication of at least a temporary reversal (60 pips in 5 mins to be exact!).

 

[Vaco]

with the rate anouncement at noon did u really expect anything but chop until then?

 

[mb325]

It was a good setup and would've made 21 points (0.5*(41+1)), it was 4 hours before the announcement, no reason not to trade something that screams out at you.