Best Thread Trading Naked

[Vaco]

another 29 bagged

got out at fake out high from earlier in the day.

 

[mb325]

another 29 bagged

got out at fake out high from earlier in the day.

There was a HL put in @ 1200, price then tested 16548ish, did you have an order to buy just above here? before price went on to make the 'true' HL on your chart, after which you bought on the break of the subsequent resistance?

 

[Vaco]

There was a HL put in @ 1200, price then tested 16548ish, did you have an order to buy just above here? before price went on to make the 'true' HL on your chart, after which you bought on the break of the subsequent resistance?

err tbh no i was not at the laptop due to the 11-13.00 chop period but had i been trading i would prob have gone long and taken a loss on the run up,

remember i'm not waiting for a break of previous high like kite, i'm buying on the way up to previous HH after a HL has been made.

Early days yet but i'm feeling more comfy when the pullback gives me at least 20 pips before we reach the HH again.

That way if we fail to break higher i still get out with 10- 20 pips.

 

[Vaco]

What i meant to say is i'm feeling confident and have decided to discout the fact that unemployment figures were just released and trade what i see. a run up before the news followed by a tripple top on 1 m yes news was better then expected but i thought it was priced in.

Have now moved stop to be and i'm going out so that i dont trade anymore today.

Overconfidence is rarely good for my account.

 

[Bloodhound]

Trade Expectancy - A Thought

Well I've had a nightmare day with IT and broadband problems all day (if anyone knows anything about MT4 and Linux / Ubuntu please pm me!!) and haven't been able to trade, which is probably no bad thing looking at cable! Anyway - APMF asked about chop and we've certainly had it today which got me thinking to something I do in these conditions which may be of interest.

It's really just a follow up to Foredog's post earlier and probably applies to those trading M5 cable but I see no reason why it wouldn't apply to other markets and timeframes.

No matter how disciplined I like to think I might be there are always times when I get caught between the headlights as price is moving back against me and freeze. This can be extremely expensive as, with a momentary loss of discipline, can come all sorts of emotions from fear, to anger at myself, to virtual panic as I feel control of the moment slipping through my fingers. Not cool at all!!

Anyway - there is a possible way out - THIS IS NOT A GET OUT OF JAIL FREE CARD THOUGH!! I'm going to assume I've been triggered long (with a stop 25 points from entry) and price immediately shoots up 5/6 points but then starts dropping off fast and suddenly I am offside by 10 points - at this point closing the trade would be my normal course of action but I freeze and don't close. A little trick I've learnt is to immediately put my TP to break even( or maybe just under). As I'm trading M5 and M5 represents a fair amount of noise there is a good chance that price will bounce around a bit and hit my TP in the process, thus getting me out of a potentially heavy losing trade at no cost.

As I said, this does not always work for me but it has a fair degree of success. One thing I have learnt is it is vital for me to use TP orders as trying to do this manually always leads to me thinking the inevitable 'it's going up now - therefore I should hang on for some profit'. Fear has turned to greed!!

Just a thought, but you might find it worth having look at.

All the best

Rob

 

[trendie]

choppy start for GU??
seemed like a break to the downside, but then whipped to the up??
on the 1-mins, I see chop.

I am on the side-lines, but wish I had taken the pullback long, at bounce of yesterdays high.
(sniper was up, but phil nels 5-mins was down, so was confused)

 

[trendie]

break of lows: short-minded?
(its normally the Friday afternoons that are bad, but this mornings wild. hopefully 1 decent trade, and the weeks over)

its forming those megaphone patterns, which are nasty for breakout players, as the "other side" of the raneg gets progressively bigger.

WOW: GU dropped as I was writing.

EDIT: guess the moral is; dont trade news!

 

[Vaco]

urgh,

got chopped to bits this morning then missed the move down as i was taking my son to school, got back thinking nice break down now just wait for the pullback to go short........might be waiting till monday for a pullback from that drop

 

[candles]

nice move there. quick +29 to start the day.

 

[trendie]

urgh,

got chopped to bits this morning then missed the move down as i was taking my son to school, got back thinking nice break down now just wait for the pullback to go short........might be waiting till monday for a pullback from that drop

you are more susceptible to news-spikes on 1-mins, so are more wary of news-times?

the indicators are now out of whack, and will take hour to settle; my weeks over.

On the 1-mins, do you go for a set daily amount?
Or stop before mid-morning chop?

Just thinking, the original move down stopped at y-days lows. But niw has broken that support, which as also previous Res on Oct-20th.

See, the PA analysis works, but still cant sense when it should hold/break!!

done for the week; hope you guys had a good one.

 

[Vaco]

you are more susceptible to news-spikes on 1-mins, so are more wary of news-times?

the indicators are now out of whack, and will take hour to settle; my weeks over.

On the 1-mins, do you go for a set daily amount?
Or stop before mid-morning chop?

Just thinking, the original move down stopped at y-days lows. But niw has broken that support, which as also previous Res on Oct-20th.

See, the PA analysis works, but still cant sense when it should hold/break!!

done for the week; hope you guys had a good one.

Early days still Trendie but today and yesterday PA would have got me in before the news in the right direction on the 1 min. I think us news releases tend to be more spikey but so far so good on uk news releases.

I've scrapped the idea of fixed targets on each trade and just exit when it 'feels like it might turn, I prob would have got out around 6510 if i was in on this mornings drop but only because it gapped down past 6600.

As for a daily target I dont have one yet but i try to avoid 11am -1pm as it gets choppy around that time.

I have to sleep at some point as well so would probably call it a day at 11am most days of the week.

Its too early to say what i'll average a day with this yet but I can tell from now that its a winner, suits my persoanality and i'll be sticking to it.

 

[Bloodhound]

Re. news, ever since I started trading cable in May it has been apparent that she does sometimes give some nice early warning signals preceding news releases - Vinnie I'd tend to agree that the UK ones seem more stable. It's worth watching what price is doing in the 5-10 minutes preceding a release IMO.

I think daily targets are a good idea as one could get a day, like today for instance, where there's a powerful move down and she'll then go into chop monster mode for the rest of the day (which could mean giving all the hard earned cash back!!)

Vinnie, you mention 11am-1pm as chop chop time. You might find it useful to have a look at 12.25pm (ish) onwards as a significant number of moves seem to start around this time (please don't take my word on that though) - that said, the more I trade her the more I realise that they will happen whenver and wherever.

Just as an aside. For anyone looking at cable M5 this morning, there's a 1-2-3 forming at the moment. I might be pointing out the blindingly obvious but 1-2-3's after a 280 point move are extremely risky and not a good idea IMO. I'm not saying I don't think it would work but one needs to understand the context of 1-2-3's / ranges etc.

Edit: Before I get pounced on for incorrect terminology can I rephrase that from 1-2-3 forming to consolidation!!

 

[Bloodhound]

but I can tell from now that its a winner, suits my persoanality and i'll be sticking to it.

Nice on Vinnie - really great to hear it. 'Suits my personality' - so no more speedos then? ;-)

 

[Vaco]

Nice on Vinnie - really great to hear it. 'Suits my personality' - so no more speedos then? ;-)

It wouldn't suit my personality without them, then again thats not to say i wont change in the future and 'drop' the speedos.

As for the 12:30 ish moves, i've noticed that too, I'm just more weary of getting into trades after 11 and will wait for the trend to start to form again heading towards 1pm then wait for a pullback. On the 1 min theres pullbacks on most moves today was more of an exception but my eyes are adjusting and i can now see where you would have gone in after the news release.

As for me i'm calling it a day, negative for the day but i'm in the wrong frame of mind ( its never a good idea for me to trade after i miss a big move) plus its likely to be choppy now.

You've said it already kite, but one of the great things of this style of trading really is the sheer volume of set ups so I can walk away when i dont feel right or the chart don't look right knowing i can come back to it another time and make pips a plenty.

 

[Bloodhound]

As for me i'm calling it a day, negative for the day but i'm in the wrong frame of mind ( its never a good idea for me to trade after i miss a big move) plus its likely to be choppy now.

You've said it already kite, but one of the great things of this style of trading really is the sheer volume of set ups so I can walk away when i dont feel right or the chart don't look right knowing i can come back to it another time and make pips a plenty.

Great discipline IMO. Took me a while to understand what you've said above Vinnie.

 

[trendie]

the really fascinating thing about this thread is how you are trading just GU, and not any other.
also, the fact that your daily returns are a few percentage points of capital at risk.

there is another blog I follow, and the trader takes positions in multiple pairs, risks 30 pips or so per trade, sometimes leaves trades to run overnight, and also manages to achieve a few percentage points return on capital per day. certainly per week.

Similar returns, but different styles.

I think its the intensity of just focussing on 1 pair and trading for just a couple of hours that makes this.
But the flip side, a bad day cant be hedged against other trades, to smooth out the emotions/perceived risk.

fascinating.

 

[Bloodhound]

the really fascinating thing about this thread is how you are trading just GU, and not any other.
also, the fact that your daily returns are a few percentage points of capital at risk.

there is another blog I follow, and the trader takes positions in multiple pairs, risks 30 pips or so per trade, sometimes leaves trades to run overnight, and also manages to achieve a few percentage points return on capital per day. certainly per week.

Similar returns, but different styles.

I think its the intensity of just focussing on 1 pair and trading for just a couple of hours that makes this.
But the flip side, a bad day cant be hedged against other trades, to smooth out the emotions/perceived risk.

fascinating.

Really interesting observation Trendie. Ironically I was talking to someone last night about this very thing. You see, if one really wanted to there is nothing to stop one pulling up M5 charts for half a dozen pairs and simply trading the same stuff on each of them. The returns would be massive but there are reasons why I'm not sure this would work:

1) Although I didn't believe it a few months ago, each pair has a personality and it takes time to learn what this is.
2) This way of trading, for me anyway, is about doing and NOT thinking. Every time I think, have bias etc. I slip up. Multiple pairs, for me anyway, would lead to bias caused by correlations etc. That said, multiple pairs would make for some very strong potetial gains!!
3) Re cable. This stuff should work on any liquid pair. Feb's guys all trade euro. I prefer cable but it's just down to personal taste. APMF has started with GJ which also looks interesting. I really do think it's a case of finding a pair which looks right to the individual and then watching / trading it. Boring but ultimately profitable and that is, for me, what it's all about
4) As for the bad days. I look at the good days as my hedge against the bad ones!!

 

[apmf]

the really fascinating thing about this thread is how you are trading just GU, and not any other.
also, the fact that your daily returns are a few percentage points of capital at risk.

there is another blog I follow, and the trader takes positions in multiple pairs, risks 30 pips or so per trade, sometimes leaves trades to run overnight, and also manages to achieve a few percentage points return on capital per day. certainly per week.

Similar returns, but different styles.

I think its the intensity of just focussing on 1 pair and trading for just a couple of hours that makes this.
But the flip side, a bad day cant be hedged against other trades, to smooth out the emotions/perceived risk.

fascinating.

That certainly can be a good idea to take multiple position in different pairs to diversify the risk. But at present I can't even focus on one pair properly and I think knowing one market completely serves the same purpose because you will know when to get out before chop and when to load etc etc.. ( I stand to be corrected).
ATM I just trade GJ and one TF(5min),ok if I was trading higher TF's then yes looking for multiple pairs to get more trades makes sense.

BTW can I ask you which other pairs does he/she from other blog follows mainly and which TF.

Happy Trading..
Paul

 

[trendie]

That certainly can be a good idea to take multiple position in different pairs to diversify the risk. But at present I can't even focus on one pair properly and I think knowing one market completely serves the same purpose because you will know when to get out before chop and when to load etc etc.. ( I stand to be corrected).
ATM I just trade GJ and one TF(5min),ok if I was trading higher TF's then yes looking for multiple pairs to get more trades makes sense.

BTW can I ask you which other pairs does he/she from other blog follows mainly and which TF.

Happy Trading..
Paul

hope she doesnt mind me saying, but its elitejets.
good blog. she trades off 1hrs and higher.

 

[neil]

Bit of a TIT !

Hourly overnight - stopped out
5 Minute chart for the short term trader (I didn't trade the 5 minute though)
I failed to note the appearance of news today