Best Thread Trading Naked

[Bloodhound]

Update on GJ. Sadly my T2 trade from yesterday got taken out at b/e yesterday evening but it's looking like there may be another chance to get in on this one. For anyone that's interested I am trying to play this a little more like I do on M5. What this means is that, whilst I'm happy to give my intitial entry plenty of space to breathe, I tend to be quite aggressive with managing additional trades as I don't see the point in giving back....

 

[trendie]

KJ, You may mentioned this before, but;
You show gains/losses as %ages. but, as a ball-park, can you say what you average stop-loss is in pips?
Interestingly, you rarely take a full 1% loss, so you presumably have it as a absolute-stop, preferring to get out sooner?
thanks

also, you only seem to trade 8am-11am. Is that right?

 

[Bloodhound]

KJ, You may mentioned this before, but;
You show gains/losses as %ages. but, as a ball-park, can you say what you average stop-loss is in pips?
Interestingly, you rarely take a full 1% loss, so you presumably have it as a absolute-stop, preferring to get out sooner?
thanks

also, you only seem to trade 8am-11am. Is that right?

Hi Trendie,

I have 2 ways of dealing with stops. The first is a fixed stop of 20 pips on every trade. The second is to use the previous swing low / high (which I am favouring more and more) - the average stop for this is approx. 28-30 pips.

With regards to stops, I'll try and write something on it a little later this morning as, you're right, I never take a full hit (or try not to) and there's a reason why.

Regarding when I trade - you've busted me for being lazy!! TBH, we're in the process of moving house and so it's a but chaotic here at the moment. In an ideal world I would be (as this morning for instance) aiming to be at my desk shortly after 6am and then looking at cable from then, interspersed with 20 mgs of coffee, psyching myself up for the day etc. The thing is, more and more, I do find I get to my desl, look at cable and there are things I look for which give me a view on the morning may pan out - range of M5 candles, length of wicks etc. This morning I am glad I got up as there's a nice tight overnight range, the candles are narrow, not much 'spikiness' - it kind of looks right to me (famous last words!!!)

Regarding when I finish - well if I've had a decent run by 11 am then I'll call it a day. No point in making a bit and then giving it all back when the US session opens....

All the best

Rob

Edit: 720am - she's gone spiky!!

 

[trendie]

my first chart here:
I have a congestion phase (by my rules); ie, a 60-pip or less overnight range.
For me, this means trend-following has to be replaced by breakout mode, since I might get chopped about.
This possibly puts me on the same hymn-sheet as you guys??

 

[mb325]

You identified a level, read PA (i.e. price was going up), took the long with your stop at a point where the long entry would have been invalidated and you had some ideas on where price might stall, reverse etc. Is there anything else to know? I have asked myself this question time and time again but can't find anything other than a negative response. Can it be so simple?

Yes I think entry can be that simple!

IMO the real problem is controlling emotions and remaining disciplined in the face of a loss (or a win!).

 

[foredog]

Not wanting to detract in any way from his thread as everything he writes is brilliant IMO, but a question.

You identified a level, read PA (i.e. price was going up), took the long with your stop at a point where the long entry would have been invalidated and you had some ideas on where price might stall, reverse etc. Is there anything else to know? I have asked myself this question time and time again but can't find anything other than a negative response. Can it be so simple?

As you keep saying it's not the entry but the management of the trade, exits etc that count so the entry can be that simple, it's what you do with it that isn't.

 

[apmf]

Hello Guys,
GJ looks bit tired and out of steam today but nothing can be said or simply what do I know.
Anyway I have a couple of question which I would like to know answers as I myself don't have much of experience...

1.Has any one come across any long extended period of choppiness or say drawdowns in Cable or any other pair where in adding bit simply fails and works against us unless stop movements are too aggresive in 5 min TF like Rob usually does, but I also think moving stops too tight to the entry can sometimes kill a potential trade (Plz correct me if I am wrong) ??

2.Can any one throw some idea about the scalability of this system, I mean can it be scalable to any extent of a/c size?? I agree it depends on the type of market.

Thanks in advance.
Happy trading everyone.
Paul

 

[foredog]

Hello Guys,
GJ looks bit tired and out of steam today but nothing can be said or simply what do I know.
Anyway I have a couple of question which I would like to know answers as I myself don't have much of experience...

1.Has any one come across any long extended period of choppiness or say drawdowns in Cable or any other pair where in adding bit simply fails and works against us unless stop movements are too aggresive in 5 min TF like Rob usually does, but I also think moving stops too tight to the entry can sometimes kill a potential trade (Plz correct me if I am wrong) ??

i'd say yes, you will havde times when the market will just chop back and forth so adding will just increase the loss, i feel this is why you need to be sharp with thee exits, better to get out for nothing or - 1or 2 if the market is not doing as expected than sit there watching a lump of moeny disappear.

2.Can any one throw some idea about the scalability of this system, I mean can it be scalable to any extent of a/c size?? I agree it depends on the type of market.

Thanks in advance.
Happy trading everyone.
Paul

Just my opinion, and i'm quite often wrong!!! hope it helps.

 

[Vaco]

kite,

I could kiss you!!

just bagged another 58 pips in 3 mins:clap:

got out simply because i expected a bounce at 6500

 

[apmf]

Thanks foredog,
Wonder why people are bit negetive about pyramiding. I am doing or will be doing some proper bactesting and I haven't yet come across a prolonged period of choppness (I mean GJ) where in adding to the position has given a huge drawdown to my a/c. Where as scaling into an existing up or downtrend, makes this method simply very profitable, may be I need to be more cautious and scale out at fixed target to make a balance.
Cheers!!

 

[Bloodhound]

Hello Guys,
GJ looks bit tired and out of steam today but nothing can be said or simply what do I know. Hope you're not thinking ;-)
Anyway I have a couple of question which I would like to know answers as I myself don't have much of experience...

1.Has any one come across any long extended period of choppiness or say drawdowns in Cable or any other pair where in adding bit simply fails and works against us unless stop movements are too aggresive in 5 min TF like Rob usually does, but I also think moving stops too tight to the entry can sometimes kill a potential trade (Plz correct me if I am wrong) ?? Extended chop can and will happen all too often I'm afraid. We can only take what the market wants to give us etc. Today is a classic example on cable. I took the short ORB break but got stopped out and cable is nasty so I am now flat. Sometimes that really is the best position to have

2.Can any one throw some idea about the scalability of this system, I mean can it be scalable to any extent of a/c size?? I agree it depends on the type of market. Can't help with this one.

Thanks in advance.
Happy trading everyone.
Paul

Answers in blue

 

[foredog]

There's nothing wrong with pyramiding IF done correctly, the problem is when pople double up but don't reuce the risk, so when it goes wrong they loses 2 times original risk etc.

 

[Bloodhound]

kite,

I could kiss you!!

just bagged another 58 pips in 3 mins:clap:

got out simply because i expected a bounce at 6500

LOL - rather you didn't!!

Seriously though that's great going. If I could say one thing and that I am very careful of trading into news. Sometimes I find I can sit and stare at cable coming up to 930am and it's pretty obvious which way the market is going to take her but other times it can be a real rollercoaster - have a look at last Wednesday's chart and you'll see what I mean.

 

[foredog]

My thoughts

Hope you don't mind me posting my thoughts here Rob.

The way I see it....

These type of trades are "breakouts" we're either trading tight ranges where you're hoping the market acts like a coiled spring and springs straight away from entry, or breaking through support/resistance so there should really be no immediate pullback. Therefore we should be able to get our stop close or to break even quickly.

These are momentum trades, so if there's no momentum then is there a trade?

If the trade rebounds back above you're entry straight away then the breakout invisaged hasn't happened, maybe with a 50 pip stop it will chop around for an hour or two before finally meandering your way but then with a 50pt stop you probably won't have much size on.

If you can trade these breakouts with a much smaller stop say between 10 and 20 then you will have decent size on for the ones that do break cleanly and run, the others you just have to get out if it doesn't work.

Think how many times Cable moves 100 points, using a 20pt stop you're getting 5xrisk, with 50 it's only 2x risk, although the downside is more losses.

Or to put it another way: If I sell something i expect to see it move down, if it's moving up then it's not moving down so i'm probably wrong and want to be on my guard against this and be ready to exit before i lose money.

 

[Bloodhound]

There's nothing wrong with pyramiding IF done correctly, the problem is when pople double up but don't reuce the risk, so when it goes wrong they loses 2 times original risk etc.

Totally agree FD. I never add to a position if it means adding to my risk.

 

[Vaco]

Well I have to confess,

I got up late today, looked at the 1 min and saw nothing, switched to 5m and saw the range and thought stay out wait for the break then trade the action after it starts to unfold.

Got back from the school run at 9:15 and saw the break had occured, put in my 'LH, and LL and took the next setup.

I hadn't even checked for news items tbh

 

[Bloodhound]

Hope you don't mind me posting my thoughts here Rob.

This post encapsulates all I think about trade expectancy - funnily enough it was a post by FD a few months ago that first set me to thinking this way. TBH - this is one of the best things I have read in a long time as it sums up my trade expectancy better than I have ever been able to put it myself.

Thanks Gareth - this is a cracking post IMO!!

 

[mb325]

I hadn't even checked for news items tbh

Maybe you got a bit lucky the news took it your way then then!

I used to play snooker at a fairly high level. My coach always used to say to me it's not the luck (i.e. flukes) that matters, it's how you capitalise on them.

Of course time will tell but it looks like you capitalised on this little bit of luck as you got out very close to the bottom of the swing. 1m chart is now making higher highs...

 

[foredog]

Don't know if you guys have read these before but they give a little insight into a few "size" traders on the s&p and their thoughts

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/44624-55000-one-month-17.html#post571562

post #131 and #136

 

[neil]

hourly cable breakout range

well- Cable has been good again. Ignore the two red arrows on the left .