Trading ES (Q1 2004)

[stoploss please]

Tickq 10/02

Same set up

 

[stoploss please]

ES 10/02

Very much a work in progress but similar scenario to yesterday.

BTW China, I have not dumped the histogram on the tick. Just hid it for the sake of these postings as it was not easy to see the trend line breaks.

 

[china white]

important point imo

1136 HAS to hold for this to be just a retracement

 

[hampy]

China, Been doing some more study the past few days and realised I 'm not sure what you mean when you talk about
neg + pos time frames
Thx,
hampy

 

[Finirama]

Bear flag target hit.

 

[china white]

time frames

hampy i dont think i can explain it better than voodoo.

 

[hampy]

Thx China

hampy

 

[china white]

btw - let me be absolutely clear here, since I quoted voodoo

with enormous respect to voo - who I reckon is a brilliant mind indeed - apart from tick and macd settings i AM NOT trading by his system as I AM DEFINITELY NOT A WAVER, be it EW or WW. Yes good things in life come in 3 , and yes waves work perfectly well in hindsight, but i find wave labelling at any given moment in time way too subjective to be a basis for MY trading decisions.

I am not intending to knock wavers off. It may be that i am just a bit too thick for the art of wave labelling. Voo, e.g. apparently does it with much success

 

[china white]

i've bn talking to some of our members who r about to start trading on their own. my impression is that they hv a very good understanding by now of how "it" works and will make good traders. Good luck to u - "Adelante!"

one thing (psycological rather) that I wud like u to know

The mrkt is a b*tch and it moves so as to shake out as many ppl as possible and make 'em quit

Therefore, when u start on yr own there r 2 most likely scenarios how she's gonna treat u:

1) she gives u 4-5 straight losses no matter what u do to make u depressed and start thinking: what do i need this for etc..... most ppl quit right after that

2) she plays her game even better giving u an easy big 1st win and then her favourite string of 4-5 losses putting u slightly in the red overall. here beginners get agitated like in Las Vegas, lose their mind - and quit very soon as well - just coz thez not much left

u may hv bn born extrenely lucky and she may treat u like a king from starters - but I know only 2 lads who had that sort of luck.

MY ADVICE - if u r serious about trading - dont get discouraged, depressed or lose yr mind. Stick to your plans and CONTROL yr losses. Once she sees u r still there and winning after all her tricks - she'll start liking u (well like any other b*tch )

 

[Finirama]

China White,

I can second that.

My first week of trading i was very lucky..managed to double my cash...... and then lost all my profit with some on top over the next following months.

This changed my attitude for sure. I changed from being greed orientated to fear orientated. At this stage i didn't make trades that i should/knew had a high probability of being successful....as i had all my confidence knocked out of me.....and just as, if not more important, is that i realised that my position size was not right and was not one that i trully felt confortable with.

I went back to basics and started researching position sizing to become more risk orientated. Trully understanding the risk/reward ratio of trades and the expectancy of the preferred trading system is the most valuable trading tool that i have learnt.

 

[Finirama]

Fridays triangle was broken today with D4F prices closing at 1149 on the ask which is 38.2% retracement of the drop. Might top up if we get a dop and bounce of the 32EMA and take some profit around 1151 (triangle target). I'm long from the first drop of the traingle and 3 peak divergence on rsi.

This is my second time posting a chart..the first was unsuccessful!!! So here goes...

 

[Finirama]

Calculating your trading system ongoing expectancy....

This is taken from Tharp & Junes 'Financial Freedom through Electronic Day Trading'....

All you need is a daily spreadsheet with the following columns :

1) Identifier Column - what trade was it and when
2) No of shares/contracts
3) Entry Risk - i.e. difference between entry price and initial stop multiplied by the number of shares/contracts purchased
4) Total Gaibn/Loss
5) R Multiple = column 4/3.

Expectancy is calculated by adding the R Multiples for all the trades divided by total number of trades

 

[Finirama]

Getting excited that i can post charts now. How sad!!!

Here is my 10 min chart with channel lines. I'm also weary of the the overhead resistance around 1152, which, if we cannot break might be forming a head and shoulders, perhaps suggesting a further drop to come??? How likely is that in presidential week????

Will be watching RSI closely which is mildy bullish.

 

[sandpiper]

Finirama,

Interesting chart. The RSI divergences that show up on the cash don't show up on the ES. Just out of interest, why are you bothering with the volume on the cash?

 

[Finirama]

To tell the truth, i dont normally pay any attention to volume.

I only added it yesterday to see if it confirms the RSI divergences

 

[sandpiper]

Finirama,

Resistance at 1152, support at 1142.

As far as I'm concerned at the moment we are still playing out the trader vic (I tink) w pattern shown on the chart.

Not entirely convinced by the weak "ish" volume test of 1142 on Friday (given it was a kind of half day). Wouldn't be surprised to see 1142 retested tomorrow on stronger volume before heading up.Certainly up seems to be the path of least resistance. Don;t see how new highs can be sustained without NAZ participation though.

Still, predictions don't pay dem bills do dey? so I guess we'll see what we see.

 

[ChartMan]

Finirama If you post your chart as anything other than a .bmp, it will appear in the thread so no one has to download it...

 

[Finirama]

Thanks Chartman and will do

 

[BBB]

Good thread guys. Keep it up.

 

[Finirama]

Nice wake up in the morning to find the futures hitting the triangle target ....1151!!!