rols said:
what proportion of these 'wrong' trades relate to stupidity or ignorance, personal issues such as belief systems, or the plain inability to see the obvious. To the successful trader, the notional 10%, their idea of the obvious must be contrary to the others.
hmm I feel that is terribly difficult to give a difinitive answer to,if not impossible. I mean I understand that when we may of read, in market wizards (I recall) something along the lines of a trader frequently was unable to explain in detail (what it was they did ),sufficient for the interviewer to be able to comprehend.., and I do not mean this as an assumed put down on the interviewers anticipated comprehension on the traders part, but more of the trader just recognising maybe that "how can I define my perception on these things" "how can I give this to you or anyone......? "
I'm assuming thats how they felt, and the traders being interviewed perhaps used an approached that may of relied heavily on intuition(to confirm the price behaviour in view, thats the best way I can put it ,for now) or as Brett Steenbarger suggested ,which is also interesting ,that "The subconscious mind is a quant" suggesting that exposure to thousands of experiences of trading patterns will aid your mind to process and anticipate future price direction. (hmm didnt i just type something about how many births have we already seen in the market, in 7'ths thread?)
(
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=18640 )
hmm and trying to answer your question or at least an attempt to probe inwards, how can we quantify something that is composed of an individuals experience. (insert unique thoughts,perceptions ,behaviour etc)
appologies if Ive made no headway......
a point on notional 10% you mention.., definatley , and when ive mentioned accepting the obvious ,its there, I mean , the obvious of the 10% .