Think you know probability?

[nine]

Ahhh ****. Time to learn to read.

 

[megamuel]

Man, I left for work at about 6:30 feeling really smug that I got this question right.... I just got back from work (I work in a pub) feeling pretty drunk and I have read this thread, and all I can think about is what Claudia looks like naked... I couldn't really read what everyone has said, I can just see that there are 10 pages on it, but I am too drunk to see the answer. My answer was to spin the cylinder again, thinking that there is then a 2/6 chance you'll blow your brains out, as supposed to a ..... hold on a sec I can't even think about what I am saying.... Someone just tell me that I am right so I can go and imagine Claudia naked....

Sam xxx

 

[everyonerich]

read the bloody question.

assume the first trigger has been pulled & empty click. the chances now has changed from

4 empty chambers + 2 filled to 3 possible filled and 3 empty chambers left.

chances is exactly 50/50..

 

[Skill Leverage]

I guess it's a good thing that only morons take your advice

 

[everyonerich]

I guess it's a good thing that only morons take your advice

what you talking about?

1.) 2 filled & 4 empty chambers

2.) 1st time fired and its empty. you have 3 empty chambers left

3.) if you fire again without spinning. chances is exactly 50/50


if you re-spin cyclinder and fire again 2nd time without killing yourself.. your chances will back to 2 filled + 4 empty chambers left. or is it called luck..?

 

[Skill Leverage]

Read the posts by Mr_Gecko, Zupcon or Si53, let their analysis permeate your brain, then get back to me.

 

[everyonerich]

well.. i just assume, i completely doesnt know wheres the bullet, neither dunno bullets located in which chambers.

 

[Skill Leverage]

assumption is the mother of all... well, it's your mother.

 

[everyonerich]

you don't know where the bullets are, but you know where they're not.

then.. that means theres also possibility the next fire would have bullet..

even if you took the spin, theres no way you'll know which chamber with bullets might landed.

 

[Skill Leverage]

OK let me break this down for you step by step.

You have two bullets next to each other in a 6-barrel gun. This means there is a series of 4 chambers containing no bullets. You pull the trigger once. Nothing happens. This means that you pulled the trigger on one of the 4 empty chambers. Since the cylinder rotates only one chamber, the ONLY one of these 4 where a bullet could have rotated to the firing position is the one directly adjacent to the two bullets. If the first pull of the trigger was on any of the 3 other empty chambers, another empty chamber must rotate to the firing position - you survive.

There is therefore a 3 in 4 chance that you will survive if you pull the trigger again - 75%. If you re-spin the chambers, your chance is only 66.66%, since you have once again randomised the firing chamber - the chances of surviving are 4 in 6 (4 empty chambers, 2 bullets).

Can't make it much simpler than that.

 

[everyonerich]

OK let me break this down for you step by step.

You have two bullets next to each other in a 6-barrel gun. This means there is a series of 4 chambers containing no bullets. You pull the trigger once. Nothing happens. This means that you pulled the trigger on one of the 4 empty chambers. Since the cylinder rotates only one chamber, the ONLY one of these 4 where a bullet could have rotated to the firing position is the one directly adjacent to the two bullets. If the first pull of the trigger was on any of the 3 other empty chambers, another empty chamber must rotate to the firing position - you survive.

There is therefore a 3 in 4 chance that you will survive if you pull the trigger again - 75%. If you re-spin the chambers, your chance is only 66.66%.

Can't make it much simpler than that.

thx.. i re do some calculations.. :idea:



theres 4 possible position you wont get hit in the first round of fire. then possibility of 2nd fire with bullets are 1/4 = 25%


possibility of 2nd fire without bullets. 100 - 25% = 75%


but since SkillLeverage mentioned random spun b4 first firing.. if bullets located in the following location we'll get shot on 2nd fire.

 

[Skill Leverage]

The fact that it's randomly spun doesn't matter; it's the fact that the first pull DIDN'T FIRE that matters. Your picture means absolutely nothing without an indication of which barrel the firing pin is at.

Let me draw you a pretty picture... Here are the four possible scenarios. Note that we cannot have a bullet in the 'FIRE' chamber on the '1ST PULL' side, since this would imply we shot ourselves on the first pull; there are therefore only 4 possible configurations.

 

[Skill Leverage]

.

 

[megamuel]

 

[megamuel]

skill, your funny man, why u up so late? are you drunk?x

 

[everyonerich]

skill.. look at your picture row 3.

if 1st time randomly spun and bullets located in the chambers no5 & 4. you pull the trigger 1st time the thing will rotate?(empty fire) and 2nd fire you'll get shot?

 

[megamuel]

I think I got it wrong because A. I was thinking about Caludia naked and B. I did not know the meaning of adjacent..... I thought it meant opposite but it actually means 'next to', that puts a whole new perspective on the matter.... I am still stupid however...

 

[Skill Leverage]

Thanks, I aim to please (pun intended).. not drunk, I just don't sleep a great deal. Hope your night was enjoyable though.

 

[megamuel]

everyonerich, do you like barbeques and sheilas?

 

[Skill Leverage]

skill.. look at your picture row 3.

if 1st time randomly spun and bullets located in the chambers no5 & 4. you pull the trigger 1st time the thing will rotate?(empty fire) and 2nd fire you'll get shot?

No; the bullets rotate into chambers 5 and 6, and you don't get shot. The only firing chamber is chamber 1. We know this because I made it simple by removing the '1' and putting the word 'FIRE' there.