Think you know probability?

[Skill Leverage]

2 revolvers, 1 has 2 bullets in adjacent chambers, one has 2 bullets in opposite chambers. Both randomly spun, you have to pick one to fire at your head. Which one and why? Probability is the same but if you HAD to pick one which would it be and what is your thinking for doing so....

Your E.V is flat for picking either revolver, so I'd have absolutely no preference. Unless I'm missing some sort of trick in the question.

 

[Skill Leverage]

Your only criteria in the 'russian roulette' system (assuming a standard one-shot revolver) are the variables; how many chambers, how many bullets. Assuming a random spin, if the variables match in two (or infinite) revolvers, you have absolutely no edge in picking one over any other, regardless of the configuration of those two bullets.

 

[MrGecko]

Yeah well you'd only be kidding yourself if you read the asnwer then answered it! Anyway, can you change my answer??? I got it wrong because I didn't know the meaning of the word adjacent! So technically I am stupid, but it wasn't my mathematical skills that let me down - I have lots of paper with revolver chambers drawn on them here on my desk to prove it!!!

Now here is another question for you - 2 revolvers, 1 has 2 bullets in adjacent chambers, one has 2 bullets in opposite chambers. Both randomly spun, you have to pick one to fire at your head. Which one and why? Probability is the same but if you HAD to pick one which would it be and what is your thinking for doing so....

Sam.

I would pick the gun with adjacent bullets, as this would knock the centre of mass away from the point the chambers were revolving around. Provided the gun was "the right way up" (i.e. firing pin furthest from the centre of the earth), the revolver is more likely to settle with the two bullets at the bottom (closer to the earth) and away from the pin than with the two bullets at the top (basically, gravity).

If the bullets are opposite, the centre of mass stays the same.

 

[Skill Leverage]

'The bullets are randomly spun' is open to interpretation I guess... Mr_Gecko has cleverly answered the question from a 'real-world' perspective, I am answering from a purely mathematical standpoint. Both have their merits I'd say, the only difference between the two is that I'm better-looking.

 

[MrGecko]

Both have their merits I'd say, the only difference between the two is that I'm better-looking.

a) Subjective

b) Doesn't make any difference, your pretty face is usually shoved into a pillow while you are biting it.

 

[Skill Leverage]

Actually yesterday being Valentine's Day I was allowed to wear the trousers.

 

[hwsteele]

Funny how threads like this that have nothing to do with trading make it to the number ONE spot as the most viewed thread on Trade2Win in the last week. Also am I seeing it right? Did you make diamond? Because of this thread? All I can say is, MR Leverage...

YOU ROCK!

When I grow up I want to be just like YOU!!!

 

[Skill Leverage]

ha

just wait until I ask the 'plane on a treadmill' question next weekend...

 

[trendie]

I would pick the gun with adjacent bullets, as this would knock the centre of mass away from the point the chambers were revolving around. Provided the gun was "the right way up" (i.e. firing pin furthest from the centre of the earth), the revolver is more likely to settle with the two bullets at the bottom (closer to the earth) and away from the pin than with the two bullets at the top (basically, gravity).

If the bullets are opposite, the centre of mass stays the same.

you are assuming the chamber is spun with the barrel horizontal to the ground.

an alternate, is to have the barrel pointing down, then spinning the chamber.
the results would not give any advantage to the consecutrive-bullet-laden chambers being at the lower end of the gun, as you drew up the weapon to the horizontal as you fired.

EDIT: you are making assumptions as to "right way up". more modern representations of "homies" of gun-culture has the weapon held at an unnecessarily distorted angular position to fire. :cheesy::cheesy:

 

[megamuel]

I would pick the gun with adjacent bullets, as this would knock the centre of mass away from the point the chambers were revolving around. Provided the gun was "the right way up" (i.e. firing pin furthest from the centre of the earth), the revolver is more likely to settle with the two bullets at the bottom (closer to the earth) and away from the pin than with the two bullets at the top (basically, gravity).

If the bullets are opposite, the centre of mass stays the same.

My thoughts exactly! Great minds think alike and skill you are right, no trick question so mathematically you correct Just wanted to see what answers people came up with

Sam.

 

[Hotch]

I appreciate that we don't want to give away solutions...but where are people making the mistake? I understand how people can't understand Monty Hall etc, but I don't see where people are going wrong.

 

[Skill Leverage]

Hey Hotch,

They're basically stuck on the fact that the first pull of the trigger gives you information that you can use to exactly define the possible configurations of the second pull. Also a lot of people seem to be confusing the word 'adjacent' for 'opposite'.

 

[Hotch]

That, and a quick glance through the thread explained it.

 

[fifty2aces]

Masq on the ball as ever with his 'I have nothing to contribute so I'll pick holes' banter...

You're right I misread the poll, 15 chose re-spin after being told. And I suppose some of them might not be 'traders' in the pure sense of the word. They do however, show a clear interest in being a successful trader, yet they can't analyse basic information that is in front of their faces.

That better for you Masq you sarcy d!ck?

I think it's especially interesting that the voters aren't just a random sample of the T2W population - they're people who're interested enough in probability to read and respond to this thread, while there are hundreds of other threads they could be reading.

I'm eagerly awaiting the sh*tstorm that the "plane on a treadmill" will generate - will you be trying the "helicopter on a turntable" problem as well?

 

[hwsteele]

Yes, and if those work well could we do the...
"What weights more, A pound of dead flies or a pound of the average Trade2Win members brain?

The thing that gets me about this thread is the fact that it has stayed mostly civil so far!

 

[megamuel]

For clarity, I am going to put 2 rounds in my piece and test this. I'll get back to you with the results...

 

[_JWG_]

It's interesting to me that after 45 votes over 57% are wrong.

I'm trying to figure out what to take from this number...

I gotta say regardless, I'm disappointed.

Cheers
JWG

 

[Skill Leverage]

Yes, and if those work well could we do the...
"What weights more, A pound of dead flies or a pound of the average Trade2Win members brain?

The thing that gets me about this thread is the fact that it has stayed mostly civil so far!

haha yeah I got banned from a forum over the 'plane on a treadmill' question, so as Fifty2Aces says, God only knows what's going to happen there!!!

Helicopter on a turntable eh... I like it.

 

[Skill Leverage]

It was a weightlifting/fitness forum I got banned from though, so I'm hoping the people here will be a little more open to having something explained to them without throwing a massive wobbly about how much they can squat.

 

[hwsteele]

It was a weightlifting/fitness forum I got banned from though, so I'm hoping the people here will be a little more open to having something explained to them without throwing a massive wobbly about how much they can squat.

So there were mostly upset at the fact that the plane could last longer on the treadmill?
All those steroids make people get angry fast!
You should be safe here. The only "enhancements" here are when people step up to real time data.