Think you know probability?

[zupcon]

Two bullets in six is not 50:50?

He's refereing to the probability of blowing out his brains (or not) on the second shot, not the probability of doing so on the first shot.

 

[N Rothschild]

 

[Skill Leverage]

I should add to Zupcon's post that the probability of him blowing his brains out is 50/50 should he choose to pull the trigger again, but not if he decides to spin the cylinder, in which case of course it's 33.33%. In Genics' scenario therefore it's decidedly better to spin again.

 

[Paul71]

He's refereing to the probability of blowing out his brains (or not) on the second shot, not the probability of doing so on the first shot.

But the markets do not work that way. You could make them work that way, but why would you want to?

 

[fifty2aces]

Great answer, see and people said 80-100% of T2W'ers were retarded... according to this poll it's only 50%

Maybe everyone's retarded - if we're all guessing, 50/50 would be a fairly reasonable distribution to expect. Think you know probability?

 

[Skill Leverage]

So basically if you ever get forced to play russian roulette with two bullets in the gun, make sure you watch how the guy puts the bullets in.

 

[Skill Leverage]

Maybe everyone's retarded - if we're all guessing, 50/50 would be a fairly reasonable distribution to expect. Think you know probability?

I would expect there to be a slight edge in favour of those who got it correct, considering I voted

 

[Paul71]

So basically if you ever get forced to play russian roulette with two bullets in the gun, make sure you watch how the guy puts the bullets in.

I don't know how this can relate to the market? Am i supposed to put myself in a situation that is against me, just for the sake of math?

 

[Skill Leverage]

It's just an exercise in probability mate, it's not meant to have some hidden key to unlocking millions trading the Dow in it or anything.

 

[fifty2aces]

I would expect there to be a slight edge in favour of those who got it correct, considering I voted

Fair enough, I would be wary about drawing any conclusions from a sample size of ten though, particularly given the high potential for selection bias. (I think some members would be more inclined than others to click on a thread with a title like this one.)

 

[Paul71]

It's just an exercise in probability mate, it's not meant to have some hidden key to unlocking millions trading the Dow in it or anything.

So probability does not exist within the market?

 

[Skill Leverage]

Point taken Fifty2Aces, and this was of course all in good humour. I'm not going to take from this that 50% of people on T2W are retards based on 10 votes. I would imagine however that if more people had voted, 50/50 would be not far from the outcome, I've done similar tests before on larger samples of people and had roughly that outcome.

Interestingly if you throw in a third 'it doesn't matter' option most people tended to pick that one.

 

[Skill Leverage]

So probability does not exist within the market?

How exactly can you read what I said and reach that as my statement?

 

[Paul71]

How exactly can you read what I said and reach that as my statement?

What is the 'prob', at any given time? Can math encompass the market?

 

[Skill Leverage]

What is the 'prob', at any given time? Can math encompass the market?

The probability at any given time is 64.2468%.

Maths can encompass THE market if, and only if, dogs can look up.

 

[Skill Leverage]

The above answers are from the school of thought known as 'ask a stupid f***ing question, get a stupid f***ing answer'.

 

[Paul71]

The probability at any given time is 64.2468%.





For what?

 

[Skill Leverage]

The probability at any given time is 64.2468%.

For what?

For you using a semi-automatic pistol when attempting this exercise.

 

[Paul71]

For you using a semi-automatic pistol when attempting this exercise.

And blowing your brains out is comparable?

 

[Skill Leverage]

Paul you make absolutely no sense.