Monday May 28th 2012
Short-term FX Pair Bias based on trading the m15 TF
AUDJPY – the 77.50 potential support if it was changing from Short to Long that I mentioned on Friday did indeed define the trading day. I am now short-term Long within a longer term Bear phase. A 49 pip gap up on open this morning. Looking for Longs, but ready for resumption of Bear phase.
AUDUSD – The 9794 level I mentioned on Friday morning as being key proved to be the case. It was only breached on a 57 pip gap up open this morning. I am now short-term Long within a longer term Bear phase. Looking for Longs, but ready for resumption of Bear phase.
Being short-term Long in a longer term Bear phase (or short-term Short in a longer term Bull phase) means I’ll chip away and take appropriate Short entry setups, but will not necessarily expect them to go to a 3rd target as I will when all my timeframes are in agreement. The trades have a lower probability of profit and under normal circumstances these days with everything else going on, I don’t take them. I will today if they present purely to show it can be done and to compare the approaches used.
EURAUD – Shorts.
EURCAD – messy. As I write it’s technically reversed to a Long from last week’s action, but it could switch back in a twitch. Staying clear until I get clarity on bias.
EURGBP – no idea. A short testing medium term Resistance or a Long about to form new Support. Answers on a postcard…
EURJPY – this is fun. Combination of the above two pairs. Higher probability of resuming its short-term down trend, but that doesn’t mean it will. Wait for clarity on bias. (I really don’t mind ‘missing’ power moves in the direction of my bias. They re-establish my intent and set me up with greater confidence to trade the next technical entry. In the same way I don’t mind missing those power moves that go against my prevailing bias…I just love missing those).
EURUSD – short-term Long within a longer term Bear phase. Looking for Longs. but ready for resumption of Bear phase.
GBPCHF – The 4960 level mentioned on Friday held, indeed, I traded off this Support level. Still technically Long. As I write (05:19 London) it’s coming off the Weekly Pivot and Daily S1. Quite a deep pullback so I don’t yet have a technical entry setup. Besides, I rarely trade before the 4th espresso of the morning…Looking for Longs.
GBPJPY – Technically a complete bar squared. Longer-term Bear phase, but if this was my patient, I’d be turning off the life support at this point. Need clear indications before considering doing anything.
GBPUSD – Making a determined effort at reversing into a short-term Long within a longer-term Bear phase. My instincts are that it will more likely resume its downward bias, but need to see it come back off the 5700 level (right now 05:25 London). There is the Weekly Pivot and today’s R2 within 25 pips. If it goes up through them then I’m a short-term Bull. Tentatively looking for Shorts.
USDCAD – Gap down which has given a very deep pullback into the longer-term Bull phase. Technically still Long, but currently (05:28 London) at 0247 and secret support level. If it breaks below that there’s nowhere really to stop it until today’s R2 at 0218. Looking for Longs.
USDCHF – ‘orrible, simply ‘orrible. Longer-term Bull phase, but the gap down has given it a deep pullback. It’s currently (05:31 London) lurking at Friday’s Low. Support? Fluck knows. Am I trading this one today? Not unless is gives me a solid indication of intent. Don’t currently have that.
USDJPY – I mentioned on Friday that although technically it appeared to be reversing into a shorter-term Long (within the longer term Bear phase), I didn’t trust the bogus JPY data on the Thursday/Friday midnight which had ‘precipitated’ that reversal. I was right to trust my instincts as this is still a Short. Looking for Shorts.
A less than appealing mix this morning and with virtually no scheduled data releases it could be a real grind of a day. However, with a bit of luck Greece will formally declare exit from the Euro, Hollande will be assassinated, by Merkel, Obama will nationalise all foreign companies in US soil (if India and Zimbabwe can do it, why not the US?) and Cameron will appoint Gordon Brown as Governor of the Bank of England. Let’s see if we can’t get this trending on twitter and defibrillate this dormant market.