TheBramble's Short-Term Spot FX Biases

On which topic look at yesterday. Jordan found another bag of oats and spent them recklessly. Today, he’s back at the table in the same position, but with another bag of oats in circulation.

Sooner or later he’s going to be referred to as “Thomas the Tank” and I want credit for originating it. (I also want to be short just before it happens, but that’s another thing…).
 
tar said:
No it is not pegged , ie : CHF shouldn't get stronger against the EUR ( below 1.2 ) but it can get weaker ...
Click to expand...

Well technically, yes, but it's not likely to get weaker if they're deflating to the extent that they had to instate a floor on the exchange mechanism so essentially it's a peg imho.
 
scose-no-doubt said:
Well technically, yes, but it's not likely to get weaker if they're deflating to the extent that they had to instate a floor on the exchange mechanism so essentially it's a peg imho.
Click to expand...
GBPCHF went up this morning. I’m currently out. But it's going up again now. I was (and may well be shortly) Long GBPCHF. I'm buying GBP and selling CHF. Thomas is selling CHF. We’re in total harmony.
 
scose-no-doubt said:
Well technically, yes, but it's not likely to get weaker if they're deflating to the extent that they had to instate a floor on the exchange mechanism so essentially it's a peg imho.
Click to expand...

Check Eur/Chf yesterday's chart ...
 
Missed entries on EURAUD, USDCAD and USDCHF. Not able to give this 100% focus today unfortunately.
 
Focus. Focus. Focus.

EURCAD setting up for a Short. Stop at 2922 above Daily R1 and clear of any action so far today.
 
Scratch EURCAD. 50 pip risk. It's already travelled 54 since Open and in today's marjet it'll be lucky to improve on current level by more than 20-30 pips. R:R not an issue, just don't want to buy risk pointlessly.
 
Right, I’m packing up for the day.

Only the one trade today which really doesn’t count unless you found something useful in my thought processes, if only how to avoid having similar ones.

It was a discretionary trade and although obviously in-line with the previously declared bias, I had absolutely no technical support for entry when I did, but I did have a strong conviction about the strength of support at that level which I first mentioned at 08:06 London this morning. The price action around this level suggested that Support was in place. So I went in small, just 1/10th my standard position size. Instead of scaling in as it moved up the levels I put another 4/10ths on as I wouldn’t be able to monitor the trade for 90 mins. I moved the stop up behind the price and behind existing SR levels. The exception was the final move in tight as it approached what I considered could be a sharp reaction level at the 1.5000 level. Too tight? In retrospect yes, of course.

Made a profit of 60% of my initial risk which was just 50% of my standard size. So a nominal +30% equating to a real +0.6%.
 
So, 4 days trading. The first comprised two trades, with the first being erroneously constructed and the 2nd being a simple loser. Not a great start. Day-2 had some decent action and useful profits bagged. Day-3 (yesterday) nothing. Boring mid-week non-action (but the totty in Mayfair was as hot as the weather). Today just the one discretionary trade with a basic profit.

In all, for 4 days trading I’ve bagged a real profit of 7.5%. Has this trading been typical and has the P&L been typical? I don’t think there is any such thing as typical apart from the clustering nature of event driven action in short-term intraday trading. The spectrum runs from boring as hell to busier than a hooker in Block A. Bear in mind this is just my style. There and thousands of successful FX traders doing it totally different and probably making my returns look like sh!t. Good luck to them. This is where I’ve ended up after a goodly number of years hacking at it.

Apart from this week when I’ve attempted to give FX 100% of my attention, I normally have FX trading as a background activity. My portfolio has FX at the bottom of the queue in any given business day and represents just 15% of the total fund. At one time, up until just a few years back, it was 100%. As mentioned in an earlier post on this thread, the returns I get on FX are among the best in any asset class I have ever traded and the technical nature of short-term FX means you can dip in and out over extended periods and pick up as if you’d never been away, but the screen-time required and sporadic burst nature of trading activity (forget the profits, they’re incidental) makes it one of the least rewarding ways to spend your time intellectually.
 
Monday May 28th 2012

Short-term FX Pair Bias based on trading the m15 TF

AUDJPY – the 77.50 potential support if it was changing from Short to Long that I mentioned on Friday did indeed define the trading day. I am now short-term Long within a longer term Bear phase. A 49 pip gap up on open this morning. Looking for Longs, but ready for resumption of Bear phase.

AUDUSD – The 9794 level I mentioned on Friday morning as being key proved to be the case. It was only breached on a 57 pip gap up open this morning. I am now short-term Long within a longer term Bear phase. Looking for Longs, but ready for resumption of Bear phase.

Being short-term Long in a longer term Bear phase (or short-term Short in a longer term Bull phase) means I’ll chip away and take appropriate Short entry setups, but will not necessarily expect them to go to a 3rd target as I will when all my timeframes are in agreement. The trades have a lower probability of profit and under normal circumstances these days with everything else going on, I don’t take them. I will today if they present purely to show it can be done and to compare the approaches used.

EURAUD – Shorts.

EURCAD – messy. As I write it’s technically reversed to a Long from last week’s action, but it could switch back in a twitch. Staying clear until I get clarity on bias.

EURGBP – no idea. A short testing medium term Resistance or a Long about to form new Support. Answers on a postcard…

EURJPY – this is fun. Combination of the above two pairs. Higher probability of resuming its short-term down trend, but that doesn’t mean it will. Wait for clarity on bias. (I really don’t mind ‘missing’ power moves in the direction of my bias. They re-establish my intent and set me up with greater confidence to trade the next technical entry. In the same way I don’t mind missing those power moves that go against my prevailing bias…I just love missing those).

EURUSD – short-term Long within a longer term Bear phase. Looking for Longs. but ready for resumption of Bear phase.

GBPCHF – The 4960 level mentioned on Friday held, indeed, I traded off this Support level. Still technically Long. As I write (05:19 London) it’s coming off the Weekly Pivot and Daily S1. Quite a deep pullback so I don’t yet have a technical entry setup. Besides, I rarely trade before the 4th espresso of the morning…Looking for Longs.

GBPJPY – Technically a complete bar squared. Longer-term Bear phase, but if this was my patient, I’d be turning off the life support at this point. Need clear indications before considering doing anything.
GBPUSD – Making a determined effort at reversing into a short-term Long within a longer-term Bear phase. My instincts are that it will more likely resume its downward bias, but need to see it come back off the 5700 level (right now 05:25 London). There is the Weekly Pivot and today’s R2 within 25 pips. If it goes up through them then I’m a short-term Bull. Tentatively looking for Shorts.

USDCAD – Gap down which has given a very deep pullback into the longer-term Bull phase. Technically still Long, but currently (05:28 London) at 0247 and secret support level. If it breaks below that there’s nowhere really to stop it until today’s R2 at 0218. Looking for Longs.
USDCHF – ‘orrible, simply ‘orrible. Longer-term Bull phase, but the gap down has given it a deep pullback. It’s currently (05:31 London) lurking at Friday’s Low. Support? Fluck knows. Am I trading this one today? Not unless is gives me a solid indication of intent. Don’t currently have that.

USDJPY – I mentioned on Friday that although technically it appeared to be reversing into a shorter-term Long (within the longer term Bear phase), I didn’t trust the bogus JPY data on the Thursday/Friday midnight which had ‘precipitated’ that reversal. I was right to trust my instincts as this is still a Short. Looking for Shorts.

A less than appealing mix this morning and with virtually no scheduled data releases it could be a real grind of a day. However, with a bit of luck Greece will formally declare exit from the Euro, Hollande will be assassinated, by Merkel, Obama will nationalise all foreign companies in US soil (if India and Zimbabwe can do it, why not the US?) and Cameron will appoint Gordon Brown as Governor of the Bank of England. Let’s see if we can’t get this trending on twitter and defibrillate this dormant market.
 
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