TheBramble's Short-Term Spot FX Biases

[TheBramble]

EURJPY Potential Short. Stop will be at 100.25 (Weekly Low+)

 

[TheBramble]

Also getting potential Short GBPJPY, but don’t want both. Triage. EUR is somewhat weaker than GBP. EURJPY will get my vote (and my funds) if it triggers.

 

[TheBramble]

Got GBPJPY Short signal but waiting for EURJPY. (Before you ask, at the end of the day I look back and regret many things...)

 

[TheBramble]

I think it was days like today a few years back that convinced me that having all your eggs in the FX basket on short-term spec. was madness. Although the returns are stonking, better than just about any asset I’ve ever traded, even with non-trading days like this (and there have been an increasing number of poor ones), if it was your primary (or only!) focus it would drive you nuts.

 

[TheBramble]

OK, just gone midnight in London. Friday. No real data to shake any stick at today. Bit of JPY data on the half-hour which is expected to be no worse than it was last time. And probably isn't.

My bias at the start of yesterday’s session was not contested, but as per my warning on mid-week re-balancing of portfolios, it blipped around and although ending the day at an appropriate lower/higher level (relative to bias) it would have potentially ripped your arms off if you’d attempted to trade those biases.

A new day, a new dawn. Let’s see if Jordan wants to throw some more CHF at the markets today.

I don’t want to pre-empt my pre-session analysis n a few hours, but I can’t help feeling today could see a significant EUR slump.

 

[TheBramble]

I'm wondering where all this aberrant economic data is coming from. JPY has just taken a bit of a hit on CPI. But there is nothing, absolutely nothing that has come in over the last month that could possibly account for such a degradation. A sneaky eye on revisions ahead of the next release is in order.

For the conspiracists amongst us, you may wish to ponder what possible benefit the Japanese could have from releasing erroneously bearish data – other than to weaken their currency….

It’s done the trick. JPY moves from #1 to #4. But I’m guessing. Not for long.

 

[forker]

Most likely its foreign hands reducing their risk.

 

[TheBramble]

Friday May 25th 2012

Short-term FX Pair Bias based on trading the m15 TF

AUDJPY – technically Short. 77.50 should be a key Support if it’s changing tack. Back down through 77.20 and I’m full on Bear again. Sitting out until I get greater clarity.

AUDUSD – Ditto but less indication of any potential reversal. Key Support for any move North around the 9794 level. 9762 (right now) key Resistance. With lack of any scheduled data today, this one (all of them realistically) may find areas of consolidation. The nice weather in the UK doesn’t help. Long week-end. Snowing here in Cambodia…Crazy weather…

EURAUD – back on speaking terms. Shorts.
EURCAD/EURGBP/EURJPY/EURUSD – Shorts

GBPCHF – Long (nice reset in place. May come back and edit this later and claim I called a reversal…). A pullback below 4960 (Yesterday’s Low and a couple of other sig. SRs) and all bets are off.
GBPJPY – Technically Short, but lifted by bogus Bear data from Nippon last night. Needs to get below 124.62 to re-establish Short-hood.
GBPUSD – Shorts

USDCAD/USDCHF – Longs
USDJPY - Technically looks like it’s just establishing a reversal into Longs, but my issues with the JPY data last night suggest I’m going to wait for more confirmation before taking any bias.

 

[TheBramble]

Most likely its foreign hands reducing their risk.

What is?

 

[TheBramble]

GBPCHF – Whoo Hooo!!!

If that 4960 level holds, there will be a gnashing of Bull’s teeth…

 

[TheBramble]

GBPCHF – if I get a Long entry setup the stop will currently) be set at 4930. Below Yesterday’s Lower Frankfurt-London Agreement (FL from here on), below the Weekly Pivot, below Today’s Lower FL and below Yesterday’s Low. It will also be below a swatch of fairly congested secret (only Gann and I know about) Fib levels.

On the other hand, if it smacks on down with momentum through that lot, it’s coming off my watchlist, fo’ sho’.

 

[TheBramble]

Short brewing on EURAUD…déjà vu…

 

[TheBramble]

Discretionary entry GBPCHF Long at 4959 Stop 4930 1/10th quoted position size. Risk 29 pips.

I have no technical basis for going in here. I’m willing to lose (sorry, t2w, loose) 0.2% of my capital on an instinctual punt. I’ll add to it up to full position size as and when it moves in favour.

Why am I taking a punt? Because I’m a retard who still has the indelible stain of chance running through his DNA. Plus (big note for newbies) I’m bored and I want some action. Come back and taunt me, please.

On the more intellectual and technical side, the price action around the area I identified earlier as likely providing Support, appears to be doing so. Look at the tails on the last couple of bars.

 

[TheBramble]

Out of 16 technical reference points for setup I have on on GBPCHF only two support going in Long at present. As I said, a punt.

 

[TheBramble]

EURAUD off the radar.

 

[TheBramble]

Won’t be at my desk for the next 90 minutes so won’t be able to monitor GBPCHF trade or any new entry setups. Would typically add into this position as the price rises through levels, but as I won’t be able to manage it…

GBPCHF – added another 4/10ths of quoted position size at 4966. Average price 4965. In for half normal position size. Let it run. Back at 12:00 London.

 

[TheBramble]

GBPCHF – Move stop up to 4953. Risk reduced to 34%. Still no entry signal. Still only in on half size.

 

[TheBramble]

GBPCHF – got a few more lights turning Green. Moving stop up to 4970, below Daily S1. No risk. 14% profit locked in.

 

[TheBramble]

GBPCHF – I calculate it will need to find Support a little North of 1.5000 before I’ll get a technical entry setup.

 

[TheBramble]

JPY starting to move up through the ranks again. I knew that data just after midnight was bogus.