TheBramble's Random Squawk

[TheBramble]

German 2yr yield falls to -0.002%. Yet another 1st...Give us your money and we'll gurantee to give you some of it back.

 

[TheBramble]

BP announcing intention to pursue an unsolicited offer of interest in its TNK-BP holdings. TNK-BP CEO said earlier this week he would be leaving by end of June. I find it unusual that BP have made this public, unless the unsolicited interest is known to them to be from a party indirectly acting on behalf of Alfa Access Renova (their joint partner in TNK-BP) . This is the company which stuffed BP on another Ruskie oil deal last year. That would make sense as going public would stuff them right back and make any deal just that little more difficult to consummate.

 

[TheBramble]

Spain in talks with EU for direct aid to banks.

 

[TheBramble]

Expectations of some form of move to boost domestic demand in China seem increasingly well founded.

NDRC, the bunch that unofficially leaked then officially denied unofficially leaking rumours of additional stimulus earlier this week, are now officially suggesting additional stimulus may be considered.

While unlikely to be anything similar to the $600 billion they pumped in back in 2008, it could be a reduction in lending rates or even yet another reduction in capital reserve requirements for its banks.

We’ll just wait for the denial of any and all of this before taking it as gospel that it is exactly what they are going to do.

 

[Ross Spur]

Germany’s government will propose that all high-frequency traders, including those trading for their own account, will be classified as financial services and securities services firms and therefore must be registered with Germany’s financial regulator.

High-frequency traders must also inform the regulator of their algorithmic trades and strategies…

That will go down well.

How will they define 'high-frequency'? Funny if they use the spreadbet definition (anyone who trades more than ten times a day and makes a profit).

 

[TheBramble]

How will they define 'high-frequency'? Funny if they use the spreadbet definition (anyone who trades more than ten times a day and makes a profit).

In the current situation, anyone who makes any profit…

 

[TheBramble]

One good thing to report on the Euro crisis is that it’s a lot cheaper for Brits to travel, stay and shop in EZ-land these days. The downside is that there’s not much in the shops.

Just realised if you apply the American pronunciation to EZ it takes on a life all its own:-

EZ-money EZ-life EZ-public pensions EZ-default EZ-government spending… EZ-to miss the big picture

On the other hand, “EU!” taken as an exclamation of disgust, such as when you trend in dog sh!t is onomatopoetic to the extreme.

 

[TheBramble]

Rehn in Spain. Offering 1yr extension of 3% deficit target if it is able to fix the finances of its autonomous areas. How exactly does this help cash-strapped banks?

Spain needs a massive injection of real capital – not the ‘carrot’ of being allowed extra time to clear some arbitrary bar set by un-elected bureaucrats with a penchant for platitudes.

 

[TheBramble]

No central bank has even been able to tie-down or prop up its currency indefinitely. The Nippons were really good (are still really good, but less effective in the current global markets) at soft intervention. Other CBs have managed, for a period of time anyway, to get their way with more direct, hard intervention.

By my calculations, the Swissy against the Euro has been under downward medium and short term pressure technically for 119 days (long term since Jan 2008, but that’s a different story). It’s lit bright red across all parameters. At some point there will be recognition of the long term futility of the prop at 1.2 and it will, and should, be let go.

The effect will be instantaneous and large and will for all the right technical reasons come back up to normalised (aka real) levels over perhaps just a week or so which I’m guessing 1.13 or thereabouts.

Sure this will hurt exporters, but the floor is hurting anyway. The upside to allowing it to float freely again is that a more expensive Swissy will reduce inflows. But will the reduced inflows balance out or exceed the cost of reduced exports?

This is Jordan’s crunch.

 

[TheBramble]

Portugal confirms it won’t be asking for any bail-out or additional time. Paulo Nuncio (Minister of State for Taxes or maybe very shortly, Taxis).

For those for whom Portuguese is not their first language, Nuncio translates to “Read My Lips”.

 

[TheBramble]

I have a sneaking suspicion the Irish vote won’t pan out the 60/40 Yes/No as is being suggested.

With a bare 50% turn-out I reckon that favours the NO vote significantly. IN which case, they vote again at the end of the year with, I suspect, a better deal on the table for them. Which they do deserve.

 

[TheBramble]

BoE to expand QE – possibly as soon as next week.

 

[TheBramble]

Barclays clear over $1 trillion in OTC derivatives . Only another $699 trillion to go then.

 

[TheBramble]

Ireland 'confident' EU fiscal pact will pass. Putin demands observers for count.

 

[eighteen]

Ireland 'confident' EU fiscal pact will pass. Putin demands observers for count.

haha thats brilliant, i was finding it a bit odd how they could already say how the vote had been done... without even counting..

 

[TheBramble]

With Brent Crude having traded below the $100 level today, the psychological significance of the reality of declining prices will reinforce diminishing activities in the more marginal oil extraction technologies where margins are already relatively thin.

 

[TheBramble]

Spanish Sovereign CDS at record high of 609 bps.

 

[TheBramble]

“Bail-out will only help tax evaders” - Alexis Tsiparas (leader of Syriza).

Yes, that’s right. They’re called Greeks.

Good to know potential new boy on the block has as sound a grasp of economics, not to mention reality, as the previous shower.

 

[TheBramble]

XGD Curncy. LOL. Now there’s a blast from the past. Check your Bloomberg. Seriously.

 

[TheBramble]

Schauble. Spain may have difficulty meeting deficit goals (no sh!t). ESM to come into force as planned. What, the plans that nobody was making and everyone was denying were being made, those plans do you mean?