The oil thread

[WallStreetHero]

im looking at the 1 hour and daily chart right now, and i see a continuation in an uptrend unless it breaks its 50 MA on both.

 

[LeoE]

Yep, starting to look as if it has some sort of direction now - up. Its starting to show an upward channel which is nice, as it hasn't shown any form of real direction since march.

 

[rbhimjiyani]

Which way is oil going?

Here is a thought! Most of the on shore holding areas for oil are full! Several hundred million barrels are held in tankers off shore!! How many holding areas are left?

Also everyone is saying the crisis is over! How many of your friends have cut back their spending in going out, using their cars unnecessarily, taking a vacation?

I think when the oil cannot be kept anywhere else the price is going way south.

RB

 

[LeoE]

Thats a point, and totally contradictory to my previous post, theres also a big double top thats formed on the chart yesterday. This is usually an indication that we are going to see a reversal. Watch to see if we break above 54.70 or not.

 

[WallStreetHero]

Here is a thought! Most of the on shore holding areas for oil are full! Several hundred million barrels are held in tankers off shore!! How many holding areas are left?

Also everyone is saying the crisis is over! How many of your friends have cut back their spending in going out, using their cars unnecessarily, taking a vacation?

I think when the oil cannot be kept anywhere else the price is going way south.

RB

everyone has been saying the crisis is over since it started in early 2008, who cares about what they say, an sane person knows we are in the crisis for a long time.

 

[LeoE]

Just thought I'd post up a daily chart of oil, looks like the previous resistance around 4800 has turned support with the current resistance level being around 5400-5500.
I think a break above resistance could see us moving up to a minor resistance level around 5600, then onto 6000.
A definite break below support could see us moving back into the mid 40's.

Next stop 6000? (after a consolidation period/pullback)

 

[WallStreetHero]

anyone alive here

 

[cyrustajik]

trade oil on spread. ICE brent.
any one doing similar stuff?
would appreciate any comments or tips on different strategies or any sort of general advice.

cheers

 

[DemonHeadmaster]

yes m8, i trade back month brent spreads against wti on both ice & cme.

hw about yourself?

dh

 

[cyrustajik]

hey
mostly calendar back months (Aug till Dec for now) ICE brent.
Im looking for some more hedged strategies. do lot of flies and spreads but I know there are some strategies out there that offer you much safer position when put on right.
how long you been trading this ?
cyrus

 

[LeoE]

Oil has busted on through the resistance around 6000, that level could turn into support now so watch for a retracement to there. Next resistance level that I can see (only from daily charts, my 1hr charts dont go back that far) is at around 6250.

 

[WallStreetHero]

do you still belive it can go up to 62.50
right now there is minor support at 61 what its resting on

 

[LeoE]

Sorry for the late reply, as I'm sure you can see now, it retraced back to the previous resistance-turned-support level around 59.70-60.00 before continuing the move up.
Kinda useless me saying that in hindsight...

Next support level looks like it may be around 62.20 while next major resistance level should be at 70.00 from the daily charts.

 

[gnutrade.satya]

On Tuesday, Oil rose when the data showed a steep drop in US crude inventories and a US government report revised global demand expectations higher. The Data which was released on tuesday from the American Petroleum Institute released showed a steep 6-million-barrel drop in US crude stockpiles in the week to June 5 as imports slowed. Refined product stocks were up slightly.

Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover in Stamford, Connecticut said: "This is a very bullish report, seeing that crude stocks and imports are down sharply and with refined products almost unchanged from the previous week."

US light crude oil for July delivery gained 96 cents to settle at $69.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

 

[gnutrade.satya]

On tuesday, Gold rose as the dollar weakened against the euro, boosting interest in the precious metal as a currency hedge. Gold is often bought as a hedge against currency weakness, and all dollar-priced commodities become cheaper for holders of other currencies as the U.S. unit loses value.

Calyon analyst Robin Bhar said: "It has been all about the dollar. It has almost been blow for blow as the dollar/euro has weakened steadily and gone through that 1.40 level."

U.S. gold futures for June delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.60 to $954.30 an ounce.

 

[Tickdoc]

Oil too high for this kind crisis?

So the dollar has pushed oil up nearing the $75 barrel...but is this sustainable in this kind of economical climate?

Technically the daily chart still shows a relatively strong and consistent rally. On the hourly however I am seeing some signs of weakness. We are heading for a third lower high and are roughly keeping to a down channel in the last 10 days. I still think we may have a technical rally up to levels of around $75 but this short-term weakness could be a sign of a return to the range nearer the $60 level, or further after some support there. Your thoughts?

 

[Mike2000uk]

Maybe geopolitical events in Nigeria and Iran could give some support next week. I think inventories need to continue falling for these levels to be sustained. I can't see more than £75 in the next couple of months unless something big happens in the middle east or Africa.

 

[Tickdoc]

Luckily I traded my own analysis! Managed to catch a lot of that drop. Now however I'm a little at a loss. What do people see as the driving factors now?..And does anyone find the daily a bit sparse in terms of indication these days?

 

[Mike2000uk]

Unfortunatly for me I didn't! Made a little bit riding the fall but not as much as I should have. I've been considering a long position today but a bit unsure. Noticed further pipeline attacks in nigera didn't slow the decline. Don't really think it will go below 59.
Dollar has been weakening but gasoline inventories are getting higher and higher.
Best thing to do probably sit on my hands until things get a little clearer.

 

[Tickdoc]

Strong downtrend in the last week...hasn't broken that channel upside yet but lower lows have stalled. there's a wedge I am waiting for a breakout of in the hourly...